Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

nature.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

41–50 of 165 posts

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#41

Post by nradov »

HCoV-OC43 is an endemic betacoronavirus very similar to SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). We don't have significant herd immunity to it. Instead most people get infected as youths and develop a level of immunity which protects against severe symptoms during subsequent reinfections. But it still kills frail elderly and immunocompromised patients.

We don't have proof of when HCoV-OC43 first emerged but circumstantial evidence indicates that it probably caused the 1889-1890 pandemic and killed about 0.06% of the world population. If we allowed SARS-CoV-2 to run it’s course without vaccination then the outcome would probably be similar or a little worse because the population today is on average older with a higher incidence of co-morbid conditions. (I am not suggesting we follow that approach.)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/#!po=92...

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#42

Post by bryanlarsen »

nickysielicki wrote: post #26
sadmann1 wrote: post #3

Alright what's the way forward then

The way forward requires coming to terms with the fact that none of this needed to happen in the first place. This disease is really just not that deadly for non-elderly and non-obese people, and we've known for a while. Every institution under the sun failed. We say we need to trust the science, but the scientists were all wrong: LANL put out a preprint paper that estimated r0 at ~7 near the beginning of the pandemi…

A new paper estimates the economic benefits of the first billion spent on vaccines at $17 trillion, and $1 trillion for each of the next few billions spent. We should have spent a lot more money on vaccines.

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/03/bi...

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#44

Post by dehrmann »

ping_pong wrote: post #18

First and foremost SARS-CoV-2 will never go away because it infects animals. Because it is so infectious, it will go through an entire herd or farm within days and eventually cause mutations and jump back to humans. So it will never go away and we need to prepare for it. The main goal is to make it survivable, ie. akin to the flu, and not cause hospitals to get overrun like we have seen so many times around the world…

The other part of this is that it can't be contained, either. Very recently, Auckland had a lockdown because of community spread. It could be from animals, or it could be a handful of 1% events happening, but New Zealand tried really hard to prevent this and wasn't able to.

Like that article suggests, it's likely that we'll have to learn to live with it. The interesting, open question right now is how various mitigation measures, everything from quarantines, masks, work from home, lockdowns, vaccines, will impact the evolution of the virus.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#45

Post by roywiggins »

codeulike wrote: post #29
ping_pong wrote: post #18

First and foremost SARS-CoV-2 will never go away because it infects animals. Because it is so infectious, it will go through an entire herd or farm within days and eventually cause mutations and jump back to humans. So it will never go away and we need to prepare for it. The main goal is to make it survivable, ie. akin to the flu, and not cause hospitals to get overrun like we have seen so many times around the world…

Because it is so infectious, it will go through an entire herd or farm within days and eventually cause mutations and jump back to humans. Citation needed

https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated...

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#46

Post by s_dev »

codeulike wrote: post #29
ping_pong wrote: post #18

First and foremost SARS-CoV-2 will never go away because it infects animals. Because it is so infectious, it will go through an entire herd or farm within days and eventually cause mutations and jump back to humans. So it will never go away and we need to prepare for it. The main goal is to make it survivable, ie. akin to the flu, and not cause hospitals to get overrun like we have seen so many times around the world…

Because it is so infectious, it will go through an entire herd or farm within days and eventually cause mutations and jump back to humans. Citation needed

The culling of the Mink Farms in Denmark should be evidence enough that it can travel through animals.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/05/pollution-fear...

The fact that it already mutated going through a bat or pangolin before going back to humans suggests this is based in sound evidence.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#47

Post by ngngngng »

quesera wrote: post #36
heavyset_go wrote: post #21

The word for probably impossible is improbable.

There's a huge difference between "probably impossible" and "improbable".

Rather, "improbable" denotes a wide range of probability where the likelihood is less than 50%. "Probably impossible" denotes likelihood much closer to 0%.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#49

Post by soperj »

caturopath wrote: post #16
WaitWaitWha wrote: post #2

I am truly baffled why the epidemiology community ever thought herd immunity will work. There is ample evidence that it is not a panacea. e.g. influenzae, hepatitis, meningitis, measles, mumps, rubella, yellow fever.

Most of the diseases you list are examples of herd immunity working in developed world communities. People without immunity to them are pretty safe from them. Herd immunity isn't eradication, it's just a reduction of the likelihood of infection among people who aren't immune themselves.

All of those got to herd immunity by vaccination, not by actually contracting the disease.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#50

Post by hannob »

ping_pong wrote: post #18

First and foremost SARS-CoV-2 will never go away because it infects animals. Because it is so infectious, it will go through an entire herd or farm within days and eventually cause mutations and jump back to humans. So it will never go away and we need to prepare for it. The main goal is to make it survivable, ie. akin to the flu, and not cause hospitals to get overrun like we have seen so many times around the world…

Rabies infects animals and it's been eliminated from large parts of the world. Vaccinating animals is sometimes an optoin.

Not saying this is comparable, or that SARS-COV2 will be eliminated in a similar way. I think it's currently unclear what will be possible, but in the medium to long-term there are a lot of options to be explored. I wouldn't put elimination in the "impossible" bucket just yet.

Post reply on HN