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Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

nature.com

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Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#6

Post by Trasmatta »

WaitWaitWha wrote: post #2

I am truly baffled why the epidemiology community ever thought herd immunity will work. There is ample evidence that it is not a panacea. e.g. influenzae, hepatitis, meningitis, measles, mumps, rubella, yellow fever.

Did the epidemiology community ever think that? I remember as early as March of last year, epidemiologists saying that herd immunity was not the way forward, and that this would likely become endemic. It seemed to mostly be reporters and politicians who pushed the herd immunity angle.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#7

Post by Retric »

WaitWaitWha wrote: post #2

I am truly baffled why the epidemiology community ever thought herd immunity will work. There is ample evidence that it is not a panacea. e.g. influenzae, hepatitis, meningitis, measles, mumps, rubella, yellow fever.

Because COVID doesn’t spread very easily. Mumps has a basic reproduction factor of 10-12, Covid is closer to 3-5. Cut Mumps transmission by 80% and nothing happens, cut COVID by 80% and it goes away fairly quickly.

Other coronavirus are endemic in China, but they rarely spread outside the country.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#9

Post by Cerium »

WaitWaitWha wrote: post #2

I am truly baffled why the epidemiology community ever thought herd immunity will work. There is ample evidence that it is not a panacea. e.g. influenzae, hepatitis, meningitis, measles, mumps, rubella, yellow fever.

In this context I think herd immunity counts vaccine driven immunity. That is how we successfully control diseases such as measles, mumps, and rubella.
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