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Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

nature.com

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Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#11

Post by Spivak »

sadmann1 wrote: post #3

Alright what's the way forward then

Everyone or as many 9’s as possible getting vaccinated and regular testing of anyone who can’t get the vaccine. Like it doesn’t have to be obnoxious but people who can’t get the vaccine should get tested when any symptoms show.

It’s gonna be like the flu, but ya know deadlier, where the name of the game is control and stamping out outbreaks aggressively.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#12

Post by hobofan »

WaitWaitWha wrote: post #2

I am truly baffled why the epidemiology community ever thought herd immunity will work. There is ample evidence that it is not a panacea. e.g. influenzae, hepatitis, meningitis, measles, mumps, rubella, yellow fever.

They possibly thought based on previous outbreaks in Asian countries that people would see the severity of the problem and that it could be contained enough (and with that likelihood of mutations lowered) until vaccination efforts have reached their threshold. The probably didn't expect that multiple big countries would just let people go about their daily lives normally for a long time and spread the virus in that proportion.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#13

Post by libertine »

WaitWaitWha wrote: post #2

I am truly baffled why the epidemiology community ever thought herd immunity will work. There is ample evidence that it is not a panacea. e.g. influenzae, hepatitis, meningitis, measles, mumps, rubella, yellow fever.

I think there was a glimpse of hope for a global effort to not add a new virus to that list, because it's not like we don't have enough of them.

But I always thought that window closed in April 2020 last year when the stance of the majority was to live with the virus, the whole "new normal" campaign. Some thought the virus was slow enough to mutate to still handle it, but they forgot that with millions of people being virus factories it would be a matter of time.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#16

Post by caturopath »

WaitWaitWha wrote: post #2

I am truly baffled why the epidemiology community ever thought herd immunity will work. There is ample evidence that it is not a panacea. e.g. influenzae, hepatitis, meningitis, measles, mumps, rubella, yellow fever.

Most of the diseases you list are examples of herd immunity working in developed world communities. People without immunity to them are pretty safe from them.

Herd immunity isn't eradication, it's just a reduction of the likelihood of infection among people who aren't immune themselves.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#17

Post by jfengel »

WaitWaitWha wrote: post #2

I am truly baffled why the epidemiology community ever thought herd immunity will work. There is ample evidence that it is not a panacea. e.g. influenzae, hepatitis, meningitis, measles, mumps, rubella, yellow fever.

This article isn't about natural herd immunity from everybody getting the disease, with most recovering and becoming immune. The article is worrying that even with vaccination, we may not be able to reach herd immunity. Too many variants; too slow deployment; too many vaccinated people still transmitting the disease.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#18

Post by ping_pong »

First and foremost SARS-CoV-2 will never go away because it infects animals. Because it is so infectious, it will go through an entire herd or farm within days and eventually cause mutations and jump back to humans. So it will never go away and we need to prepare for it.

The main goal is to make it survivable, ie. akin to the flu, and not cause hospitals to get overrun like we have seen so many times around the world in the last year.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#19

Post by pbreit »

WaitWaitWha wrote: post #2

I am truly baffled why the epidemiology community ever thought herd immunity will work. There is ample evidence that it is not a panacea. e.g. influenzae, hepatitis, meningitis, measles, mumps, rubella, yellow fever.

I'm not baffled since there's a good chance we'll reach effective immunity as with all of those mentioned except flu.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#20

Post by caturopath »

cyptus wrote: post #15

even if we reach a herd immunity, won’t the virus just mutate in animals until it is effective against our vaccines?

This remains to be seen, and some of the experts guess this isn't a major risk. (Obviously it's possible, but there are scads of other viruses that could mutate until they're deadly in humans, too.)
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