The word for probably impossible is improbable.
Covid herd immunity is probably impossible
21–30 of 165 posts
Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible
#22I am truly baffled why the epidemiology community ever thought herd immunity will work. There is ample evidence that it is not a panacea. e.g. influenzae, hepatitis, meningitis, measles, mumps, rubella, yellow fever.
Did the epidemiology community ever think that? I remember as early as March of last year, epidemiologists saying that herd immunity was not the way forward, and that this would likely become endemic. It seemed to mostly be reporters and politicians who pushed the herd immunity angle.
I can believe that. I have not dug much into the historical herd immunity statements, so it is possible they were not, although purported to be, by experts.
Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible
#23I am truly baffled why the epidemiology community ever thought herd immunity will work. There is ample evidence that it is not a panacea. e.g. influenzae, hepatitis, meningitis, measles, mumps, rubella, yellow fever.
Did the epidemiology community ever think that? I remember as early as March of last year, epidemiologists saying that herd immunity was not the way forward, and that this would likely become endemic. It seemed to mostly be reporters and politicians who pushed the herd immunity angle.
It was also a fair amount of HNers pushing the herd immunity thing as well.
Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible
#24I am truly baffled why the epidemiology community ever thought herd immunity will work. There is ample evidence that it is not a panacea. e.g. influenzae, hepatitis, meningitis, measles, mumps, rubella, yellow fever.
Did the epidemiology community ever think that? I remember as early as March of last year, epidemiologists saying that herd immunity was not the way forward, and that this would likely become endemic. It seemed to mostly be reporters and politicians who pushed the herd immunity angle.
From the article:
> and many scientists had thought that once people started being immunized en masse, herd immunity would permit society to return to normal.
Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible
#25even if we reach a herd immunity, won’t the virus just mutate in animals until it is effective against our vaccines?
Right now the vaccines are effective against current mutations but yes! It’s very likely that we’ll see more than one covid vaccine during our lifetimes as it mutates.
Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible
#26Alright what's the way forward then
The way forward requires coming to terms with the fact that none of this needed to happen in the first place. This disease is really just not that deadly for non-elderly and non-obese people, and we've known for a while.
Every institution under the sun failed.
We say we need to trust the science, but the scientists were all wrong: LANL put out a preprint paper that estimated r0 at ~7 near the beginning of the pandemic, where it's more like 2.5. The scientists told us that a vaccine wouldn't be ready for years, it was actually ready in months. The media was so addicted to the story that they failed to inform the public of these changing expectations. Meanwhile, the government spent a lot of money, and it's not entirely clear that it did anything except bubble up tech stocks. Did it save many jobs? No, not really, just like all these other institutions failed.
The way forward won't happen, at least for a while, because these institutions are powerful and need to save face.
Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible
#27even if we reach a herd immunity, won’t the virus just mutate in animals until it is effective against our vaccines?
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Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible
#28Alright what's the way forward then
Quite the same as if the vaccinations were causing herd immunity: Everyone who wants a shot will get one. Everyone on the vulnerable list should think really hard and really get a shot. The rest can suffer of their own free will.
Or: make vaccinations mandatory if you want to protect those who cannot get a shot for health reasons.
Remember, the reason is vaccination hesitancy or refusal. A perfect example of antisocial and stupid behaviour.
Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible
#29First and foremost SARS-CoV-2 will never go away because it infects animals. Because it is so infectious, it will go through an entire herd or farm within days and eventually cause mutations and jump back to humans. So it will never go away and we need to prepare for it. The main goal is to make it survivable, ie. akin to the flu, and not cause hospitals to get overrun like we have seen so many times around the world…
Because it is so infectious, it will go through an entire herd or farm within days and eventually cause mutations and jump back to humans.
Citation needed
Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible
#30Alright what's the way forward then
Accept it, remove all restriction and move on.