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Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

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Re: Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

#141

Post by mchusma »

nabilhat wrote: post #105
auiya wrote: post #17

Astra Zeneca says it's less than 40 cases in 17 million. Are those numbers accurate? That seems like quite a small population affected.

It's still too early for the general public to draw conclusions from the data provided. Derek Lowe had some early observations on these numbers and their significance in regards to the critical missing data needed to make decisions: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/03/16/wh... > "...they say that is indeed “ much lower than would be expected to occur naturally in a general population of this size “…

Derek did a good job on this issue, both warning it would happen before and re-emphasizing that it's most likely statistical anomaly. Even if the blood clots were a result of the AZ vaccine, it would still make more sense for most people to take the vaccine (I would), so a ban is entirely unjustified.

Governments banning their citizens from taking Astrazeneca should use accurate language "it's banned" instead of the language "pause rollout".

Taking a COVID vaccine is a choice individuals make and governments have denied them during a pandemic.

Re: Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

#142

Post by dekhn »

dekhn wrote: post #15

There is absolutely not enough evidence from this particular doctor to justify the claim. It's irresponsible to publish this.

Here's a better article, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/15/health/astra-zeneca-vacci...?

"""Calculating further, he said, roughly 1 percent of the 1,000 to 2,000 daily blood clots — 10 to 20 a day — would occur in the vaccinated patients just as part of the normal background rates, not related to the vaccine.

“Only if epidemiological data show that that rate is higher, would one start to wonder about a causative relationship,” Dr. Moll said.

"""

AKA, base rate fallacy strikes again.

Re: Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

#143

Post by Daho0n »

chii wrote: post #54
hvidgaard wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3 have had the immune response in about 120.000 vaccinated with AstraZeneca. That's too small a sample to really conclude anything, but as far as Norway is concerned it might be a 1:40000 risk.

but norway has to consider whether they just got _really_ unlucky, and saw these numbers, when some countries like the UK hasn't. Or the UK has, but they are either unreported, or the different demographic group is not showing up with the same numbers so uncomparable. It's a hard thing to tease out.

Norway's number is only from healthy health workers. The UK number is not.

Re: Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

#144

Post by sydd »

lyschoening wrote: post #102
BrianOnHN wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> risk turns out to be 1 in 50.000 It's more like 1 in 500,000.

The numbers are three healthcare workers out of 120,000 vaccinated in Norway, with one death, so the risk is 1 in 40,000 from what we know. On top of that we can speculate that healthcare workers are more likely to seek treatment than the average vaccine recipient and they are healthy adults of average age.

Everyone would seek treatment, the clotting has like a 40% fatality rate.

Re: Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

#145

Post by jdavis703 »

hungryhobo wrote: post #132
BrianOnHN wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Criminals aren't arrested for breathing. Next!

Boeing 737 max has a lower crash rate than cars, do you think the ban was warranted?

Cars should also be banned and replaced with alternatives (be it safe self driving tech, public transit or biking). Car crashes are one of the top killers of young people in terms of crashes, and we’re just starting to understand the effects of air pollution on young lungs.

Re: Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

#146

Post by b112 »

afavour wrote: post #129
b112 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry, but anti-vaxxer nutjobs do that hype all on their own. And people are already sensibly worried about rushed testing, and approval processes. (It is sensible to be worried, and to keep a sharp eye.) Now there appears to be a complication with one vaccine. No hype is required, for people to become enraged if there is no investigation. Most jurisdictions have said 'pause for a few days, until we look into thi…

> By your response, you're suggestion that we should not have even bothered with clinical trials? Just inject anything we thought might work, right away, just in case? That's very clearly not my suggestion. You're being absurd. You're talking as if the AZ vaccine had no clinical trial. It did. It's been proven safe for the vast, vast majority of the population. At no point did I say that this shouldn't be investigate…

The mouse brain derived Japanese Encephalitis caused death, often 2 years after vaccination. It too went through clinical trials, and seemed perfectly safe at first. It was pulled as a result.

Yet, those clinical trials were not rushed, nor the government approvals, nor did it have the sort of pressure you are applying right now.

Further, you have no idea how wide spread, or severe this may be. You cite numbers from the media, yet reject pausing, without even knowing the precise number of people unable to get vaccinated as a result, or if more cases of clotting may appear as time passes.

You have no real data.

Let's get some.

FYI, we are not far apart ideologically here. I get what you are saying, but imagine this..

2 weeks pass, and it is shown that the problem is quite severe. The vaccine is tossed.

Next the anti-vaxxers, the media, start spewing words of distrust. Helpfully, the media shows a grandmother crying, for days, over and over, about her dead son.

How many may refuse vaccination, and die then?

I believe it makes more sense to demonstrate caution, due to the sad politics of humanity.

Re: Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

#147

Post by chithanh »

afavour wrote: post #26
runawaybottle wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sort of the theme with Covid ultimately. I’m curious who will have the guts to re-examine the global shutdown as an exaggerated reaction as we go forward.

40 cases of blood clots (and 0 confirmed deaths) in 17 million 538K confirmed deaths in 328 million (the US population) They really aren't comparable. EDIT: see replies below for details about deaths connected to the clots. I take that back. But my general point still stands, COVID is far, far more dangerous than the vaccine.

> But my general point still stands, COVID is far, far more dangerous than the vaccine.

It is worth breaking that down by age, sex, and other risk factors.

For an 80 year old male obese smoker, who lives in a country with high COVID-19 rates, I have no problem believing that COVID-19 is more dangerous than the AstraZeneca vaccine.

For a 25 year old female with no comorbidities, who lives in a country with low COVID-19 rates, this is much less clear and will now have to be determined statistically.

Re: Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

#148

Post by dekhn »

einarfd wrote: post #27
vibrio wrote: post #4

Based on all the information provided in this article, this article is premature to publish. The headline is accurate, as 'experts say', but lack of any independent support of data supporting the claim, makes this dubious (at best) to publish at this point.

Do remember that this expert is the person the premier Norwegian hospital picked as their spokesman for their press conference on this. So in essence what he says is the opinion of the Norwegian health care system, not just his own, about these cases. This isn't some random expert, giving an of the cuff opinion.

hes a clotting expert, not a COVID expert. So of course he sees clots everywhere. Are you sure he's the spokesman, or just making this claim as an independent researcher. There is nothing in the two articles I read saying this is an official position of the hospital.

Re: Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

#149

Post by dekhn »

auiya wrote: post #17

Astra Zeneca says it's less than 40 cases in 17 million. Are those numbers accurate? That seems like quite a small population affected.

most news reporting about adverse health events makes the problems sound far more severe and significant than they really are.

Re: Norwegian experts say blood clots were caused by the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

#150

Post by dekhn »

contravariant wrote: post #89
cranekam wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

40 out of 17 million is 0.0002%. Surely 0.0002% of any cohort go on to develop blood clots? I'd certainly pick those odds over being unvaccinated.

If you read more closely you'll notice they're talking about a particular kind of thrombosis[1] which is accompanied by low platelet counts. This particular symptom is usually sign of a particular autoimmune response and has an incidence of about 4-5 per million people per year . [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thrombotic_thrombocytopenic_pu...

so basically, base rate fallacy strikes agan.
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