101–110 of 288 posts
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Sort of the theme with Covid ultimately. I’m curious who will have the guts to re-examine the global shutdown as an exaggerated reaction as we go forward.
I'm fully for that. And when we find out that a hard lockdown would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives, I hope we'll also have the guts to lock up the people who advocated against it, simply to further political goals. And try them for murder.
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If the risk turns out to be 1 in 50.000, which would be on the conservative side if the observations from Norway are correct, it's not a clear-cut question in a country with low incidence of Covid. Especially if other vaccines are available with a small delay. The British tool for calculating covid risk puts risk of death as 1 in 500.000 for a healthy 25-year old, and risk of hospital admission as 1 in 13.000. Must a…
> risk turns out to be 1 in 50.000 It's more like 1 in 500,000.
On top of that we can speculate that healthcare workers are more likely to seek treatment than the average vaccine recipient and they are healthy adults of average age.
I'm happy this research has been done so quickly, but am somewhat annoyed that the public conversation is so focused on whether or not the vaccine can possibly cause any problems, and not at all focused on the risk management question of what the optimal choice here is. The chance of getting a blood clot seems so low that it may for all I know be equivalent to the risk of dying in the streets while jaywalking to get…
Are you sure this holds true for a 25 year old healthy person?
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Yes, but, there are close to 200 vaccines. It isn't as if all vaccinations have stopped, there are other options, and panic and fear on the side of omg must vaccinate now, now,now! ? Any hint, even the slightest, that complications may be ignored, could result in untold masses refusing vaccination out of fear. So let's pause one vaccine for a few days, and see if moving ahead, or more research is required.
> there are other options Not with sufficient supply there isn’t. That’s the issue almost every country is facing, and AZ production plants can’t just flip a switch and start making Moderna vaccines instead. No matter what if you stop using the AZ you’re going to have a sharp drop in the number of vaccinations you’re able to do. That would almost certainly result in more deaths than the side effect of the vaccine. >…
(It is sensible to be worried, and to keep a sharp eye.)
Now there appears to be a complication with one vaccine. No hype is required, for people to become enraged if there is no investigation. Most jurisdictions have said 'pause for a few days, until we look into this'.
This is very, very sensible. Logical. Calm and cool, as a reaction.
Let me put this another way.
By your response, you're suggestion that we should not have even bothered with clinical trials? Just inject anything we thought might work, right away, just in case?
Because, if you're advocating against pausing, for something that would get a second look in a clinical trial... ?
Astra Zeneca says it's less than 40 cases in 17 million. Are those numbers accurate? That seems like quite a small population affected.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/03/16/wh...
> "...they say that is indeed “much lower than would be expected to occur naturally in a general population of this size“. It also appears to be similar to what’s been seen with the other coronavirus vaccines..."
Until we know the methods and expectations behind numbers provided, naively taking them at face value suggests that this vaccine reduces the risk of these blood clots in the general pre-covid population. In the absence of statistically robust information about these alerts, we're stuck assuming that the experts know what they're doing until the detailed work is available and recognizing that (as Derek pointed out months ago) public attention is going to find focus on the inevitable mortality and illness rates without accomodating that people also die and have health issues for other reasons. Watch a random selection of 17 million people for a month, a five digit number of them will die. More if they're predominantly on the elder end of the scale...
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Actually this is independent testing for the AZ vaccine. As in, the only testing not done by AZ themselves. It all depends on how you look at it...
Pretty sure all countries that distribute it have their own independent data sets, or are you suggesting AZ runs the health care systems across Europe?
As I said before, that's normal procedure for any medication, so we're arguing about the definition of "independent".
Btw the case in Italy was autopsied and found to not have any blood clots.
Edit: found a link in english for Italy
https://www.ansa.it/english/news/general_news/2021/03/16/ast...
Astra Zeneca says it's less than 40 cases in 17 million. Are those numbers accurate? That seems like quite a small population affected.
That is a significant number for a medicament that is given to healthy people. If you had children and one of them died as a result of a vaccine, you would not say is a small population affected. There are other vaccines that can be used. I believe Oxford will license Sputnik and manufacture it.
Is there some massive action against AZ vaccine. Looking on any provided data it seems that those blood clots cases are below population averages, but everyday I read about someone killed by AZ vaccine. I feel lost, frankly speaking. AZ vaccine is way cheaper than Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, could it be some PR action from those producers whose business is hurt by AZ. I don't want to sound as some proponent of conspir…
So for example, problems with quality control made for a unnecessarily challenging analysis of trial data. Slowness in reporting details when possible complications showed up in during the trials made the US authorities really pissy and they've still not granted it permission for emergency use. And then there is their awful communications around the production issues where they spent like a month giving progressively worse and worse news to their customers about how much vaccine would actually show up.
All those very real problems make for good padding to any article about any new issue about the AZ vaccine. So because it is simply easy news to write it will get written, and this helps explain why there are so many.
With all these vaccines and companies competing with one another I often wonder what is real, what is unstated, and what is a PR stunt against the competition.
The rate of blood clots as a side effect for the AZ covid jab is less than that of the combined contraceptive pill - does that mean that both need to be discontinued?
So even if the vaccine is responsible for these deaths, the people making the administration decisions will choose having 10x or 100x the number of people die from not getting them vaccinated quickly. So much for "science-based decision-making"...