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Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

japantoday.com

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Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#141

Post by macspoofing »

steelframe wrote: post #12

> it peaked at more than 2,500 cases per day in Tokyo That's 0.027% of the population of Tokyo per day in a city that has over 6,000 people packed in per square kilometer. By comparison, Idaho has a population density of 7.64 people per square kilometer, and right now the infection rate there is 0.021% of its population per day. That's only a 30% difference in percentage of population infected per day, but there are…

>Whatever Tokyo is doing to keep COVID under control with such a crazy high population density, it looks like we've got an entire state over here in the U.S. that could still learn some of the basics.

Maybe, but I'm skeptical. Maybe the COVID strain active in Japan is much less virulent than the one in the US. Maybe testing standards are different. Maybe infection identification standards are different. But in general, I'm highly skeptical that this is an apples-to-apples comparison.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#142

Post by Mediterraneo10 »

matsemann wrote: post #101

I hope big tournaments will be more distributed in the future. Like soccer, no need for Qatar to kill thousands to build lots of stadiums that won't be used much in the future. Do like the Euro was going to: Have multiple host cities and reuse existing stadiums. Olympics make everyone build a bob sleigh track. But it's such a niche sport and no one will ever use it again in most of the world. Or for summer olympics,…

Lillehammer repurposed their bob sleigh track into a tourist ride. I wonder how many other cities have done the same.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#143

Post by offtop5 »

brigandish wrote: post #91
lhl wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s true that Japan has done many non-optimal things, but the biggest difference from the west IMO is that there has been close to 100% mask usage (eyeballing in Tokyo, about 95% surgical masks) for over a year now. Any Japanese who see things like Idaho’s recent mask burning protests are simply bewildered. Of course, people take their masks off when eating out, but still keep them on while ordering and waiting for…

The biggest difference is in the waistlines. As reported just the other day[0]: > Of the 2.5 million COVID-19 deaths reported by the end of February 2021, 2.2 million were in countries where more than half the population is classified as overweight Japan is not one of those countries. As someone who lives in Japan I can tell you that the general population isn't wearing high quality, fitted masks in controlled condit…

Agreed, I feel one result of political correctness has been a refusal to acknowledge how much obesity affects every aspect of your health. I used to be morbidly obese and I was constantly sick up until I lost 70 or so pounds and got to a reasonable weight. This also made dating so much easier. I'm going off on a tangent, but if I had to give one piece of advice to any young person it would be to get to a healthy weight. Tons of damage is done to your body for every day you're obese, and it's not always reversible even if you start eating right later.

It's unsurprising countries with obesity epidemics such as the United States have higher rates of covid mortality. There have been several stories where someone in their twenties dies of covid, but until you see the photo you had no idea they were morbidly obese.

If I had to guess I'd say in healthier populations many people may have covid and just shrug it off without necessarily getting tested and adding to case numbers.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#145

Post by SonicTheSith »

matz1 wrote: post #122
raindropm wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Um, can't we give those narrative a break even in the time of peril like this? It's just so out of context. It's global Pandemic dude! Controlling the risk from outsiders is the protocol in EVERY COUNTRY right now. They host the Olympic, they seriously WANT everyone from every country to be in their country! and it's just can't happened right now. If the situation is normal, and they refuse to let foreigner in, then…

The risk are so low, vast majority of people will survive covid just fine regardless of vaccine or any other precautions. It is pandemic but the risk has been overly exaggerated. Florida can host superbowl recently with almost full attendance.

So if the vast majority of people survive, we should just let it rip?

What would happen if we would let it rip:

- Without any counter measures such as masks or lockdowns the rate of infection would be significantly higher resulting - Tens of millions more dead (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/06/09/8724419...) The link shows projections done last year in May. Mutations that spread more such as B1.117 (British variant) are not even in this consideration

- More people with long term effects and need for rehabilitation, which will lead to a significant influx on the health care system in third world countries such as the USA were even now Kickstarter ist the most widely used insurance service....

Even if only 1.5% die across all age groups accross the world that would still be 117.000.000 million people.

Now the population of people above the age of 65 is 700.000.000 here the mortality rate is higher. Let's be conservative at say 20% ( since there is also an increase between ages 65 and 75+) that would be 140.000.000 Deaths Now for the age group below age 65 and acording to stats from 2016 are 16% of the world population obese . Obese people just like older people have a higher risk of dying from covid than healthy people. 16% from 7. billion ( deducted the above 65% since they already have a higher chance) That would be 1.120.000.000 people that would have a conservative risk to die of covid of 20% = 224.000.000

total death toll = 140.000.000 + 224.000.000 + 88.500.000 (5.9bil healthy people with death chance of 1.5%) = 450.000.000

By no means are these number accurate but they show about what kind of dimension we talk about when we talk about letting it rip. Important to not is that the 5.9 billion people are not all healthy so in reality that number would be much higher.

The flu itself kill yearly 650.000 people globally ,.. so every one who says that covid19 is not dangerous is an idiot.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#146

Post by sandworm101 »

Retric wrote: post #103
DevX101 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hosting the Olympics costs somewhere between US$15-20 billion. If the goal is really to put a city 'on the map' you could spend less than 5% of that money on an extensive cultural/tourism marketing campaign and have more of an effect. I've yet to meet anyone who's chosen Sochi as a vacation destination.

Winter Olympics locations rarely end up as tourist destinations because people take fewer international vacations to cold locations. Summer Olympics have a better shot, and the stadiums can more often be useful long term. But, it’s still low odds of success. The best bet seems to be a lesser known location which can use most of the infrastructure and has some non Olympics tourist destinations. Which isn’t a huge list…

>> Winter Olympics locations rarely end up as tourist destinations

Whistler. But then again it was a huge destination before the olympics too.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#147

Post by Retric »

rjsw wrote: post #135
Retric wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s purely a numbers game, ski trips happen but are really a small subset of trips. Meanwhile 1/2 of the Olympic city’s host winter games.

The venues for Olympic Winter games are by definition where people go for ski trips, they may build varying amounts of infrastructure for non-skiing events but they will have an economy already geared around tourism.

Cortina d'Ampezzo is hosting the 2026 Winter ski events, and yes it’s a ski destination but only has a peak of 40k residents in the winter which is when the Olympic boom would hypothetically take place.

That’s not a huge economy to absorb a short term spike in tourism when it’s focused on a few months out of the year. Worse it’s not like there is a massive untapped surplus of people doing international ski vacations. But don’t take my word for it their are actual studies looking into this stuff that come to similar conclusions.

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#149

Post by Pyramus »

nradov wrote: post #118
Pyramus wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The study you linked shows that obesity is linked with more severe outcomes, not higher infection rates. I know at least one study that shows infection rates did not change with co-morbidities, see Fig 6b in https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19509-y However I would not be surprised to see slightly higher infection rates mediated by healthier immune systems in healthier folks.

Did you read the article? "... indicating that SARS-CoV-2 is more likely to enter the human body in obese people as compared with non-obese people."

"Increased ACE2 expression in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients who are overweight compared to those not-overweight was observed [3], indicating that SARS-CoV-2 is more likely to enter the human body in obese people as compared with non-obese people. "

Not sure why you left out that the study was done on obese patients that also have COPD. You can also check the primary source [3].

"In summary, we have shown increased ACE2 expression in the bronchial epithelium of COPD patients who are overweight compared to those who are not overweight. This may provide increased opportunities for SARS-CoV-2 infection of the respiratory tract. These individuals may be at greater risk of developing severe COVID-19."

Again, that's a hypothesis that makes completely sense, but from your study alone we do not know how much greater the risk is - 0.5% 5%, 50%?

[3] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7276828/

Re: Japan to stage Tokyo Olympics without overseas spectators

#150

Post by matz1 »

SonicTheSith wrote: post #145
matz1 wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The risk are so low, vast majority of people will survive covid just fine regardless of vaccine or any other precautions. It is pandemic but the risk has been overly exaggerated. Florida can host superbowl recently with almost full attendance.

So if the vast majority of people survive, we should just let it rip? What would happen if we would let it rip: - Without any counter measures such as masks or lockdowns the rate of infection would be significantly higher resulting - Tens of millions more dead ( https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/06/09/8724419... ) The link shows projections done last year in May. Mutations that spread more such as B1.117…

>So if the vast majority of people survive, we should just let it rip?

No, we should still attempt to fight it but doing so without lockdown/masks.

lockdown/masks cause misery which is should not be ignored.

> Without any counter measures such as masks or lockdowns the rate of infection would be significantly higher resulting - Tens of millions more dead

South Dakota never lockdown nor have mask mandate

Sweeden as well.

Florida mostly not lockdown

They are doing fine.

There are no significant difference between place that doing lockdown/mask compared to place that don't.

The way covid death is counted right now is highly misleading because it including everything remotely related to covid, for example death due to heart attack while being positive for covid is counted as covid death.

Death is not the sole metric, yes reducing death is a good thing but if it attempted by increasing misery due to lockdown then I don't want it.

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