Why is there a "Final Report"? Surely, because of the scope and ever-changing landscape, there should be a standing commission on AI and national security, right?
The NSCAI is a commission created by Congress specifically to draft this report.
National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report
91–100 of 115 posts
Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report
#92Earlier quoted context omitted.
I appreciate the sarcasm. The US is facing the realities caused by somewhere in the order of 50 years of incompetence in government at nearly every level. This isn’t going to change any time soon. While we have been busy de-educating our new generations and worshiping idiots like Bernie and AOC, the Chinese worked hard and went from an agricultural society to the second economy in the world. Well done! A line from St…
> While we have been busy de-educating our new generations and worshiping idiots like Bernie and AOC, the Chinese worked hard and went from an agricultural society to the second economy in the world. It is exactly people like Bernie and AOC who are likely to bring manufacturing back to the USA, instead of letting corporations continue to outsource every last job they can to save a dollar on labor. The current predica…
> It is exactly people like Bernie and AOC who are likely to bring manufacturing back to the USA, instead of letting corporations continue to outsource every last job they can to save a dollar on labor.
Yeah, in fact Bernie speaks to this exactly in 2003, in a discussion with Alan Greenspan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJaW32ZTyKE
Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report
#93Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's unfortunate. To rebuild our domestic manufacturing capability we should loosen on intellectual property.
Why? What would loosening IP do in this regard?
In its present state the patent/license system does more to gum up innovation than it does to help inventors. This is due to the extreme asymmetry between individual inventors (who have almost no power to enforce IP against big companies) and big companies (who have a virtually unlimited war chest of liberally granted patents that are mainly used to squash competition from smaller businesses.)
The options for fixing it are A. Reform the entire judicial system so that one guy can take on a foreign multinational and win if he's right, and also get the patent office to stop granting trivial or overly broad patents to protect small businesses from abusers, or B. Weaken IP law so that we get fewer of the abuses, under the theory that we aren't getting the benefits now anyways. (If a system promises benefits but delivers abuses, it can be advantageous and much more practical to get rid of the system, even if reforming it would be better.)
Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report
#94Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why would US salaries start to even out with the rest of the world? On a per capita basis, our GDP is still massively higher than every other large country.
> Why would US salaries start to even out with the rest of the world? On a per capita basis, our GDP is still massively higher than every other large country. The hypothesis is that if most high compensation workers are remote, it opens up those labor markets to more competition from lower cost regions. IOW, as Covid-19 forces organizations to become remote-first, they perforce also become more outsourcing-friendly,…
I don't believe it. People predicted the same thing would happen due to technology enabling outsourcing in the 90s. The only success was at the lower-end of the information economy.
Also, while COVID is going to accelerate the shift to remote work in the US, the vast majority will be <100% truly async remote. It's the 1-20% of edge case requirements that are really hard to mitigate. The ability to answer a phone call at 2pm Eastern Time and hop on a plane to Chicago is way different for someone from Manila than it is for someone from Cleveland, even if they only do it occasionally.
Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report
#95Earlier quoted context omitted.
The world was a much more violent place before pax americana.
> The world was a much more violent place before pax americana. Europe, for sure is a lot less violent, as for the rest of the world? I won't believe that on face value; south America specifically got more violent, and I suspect everywhere else is a wash (or is not attributable to American force projection). I attribute the peace in Europe to the EU rather than pax Americana.
The EU was founded in 1993.
Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report
#96Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The world was a much more violent place before pax americana. Europe, for sure is a lot less violent, as for the rest of the world? I won't believe that on face value; south America specifically got more violent, and I suspect everywhere else is a wash (or is not attributable to American force projection). I attribute the peace in Europe to the EU rather than pax Americana.
The EU was founded in 1993.
A company named "Apple, Inc." didn't exist prior to 2007 either - that's just splitting hairs, IMO, a rose by any other name &tc, &tc. I assumed anyone who has passing familiarity with Europe's history and WWII knew exactly what I meant by "EU" - you may read it as "the European project", if that dunks your crumpet.
Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report
#97Earlier quoted context omitted.
Also worth noting that TSMC is about to build an 5nm fab in America. https://www.forbes.com/sites/timbajarin/2021/02/16/why-tsmcs...
By the time it’s finished, 3nm will be what we really want for the high end
Perhaps, but I am sure a lot of the equipment is transferable between processes.
Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report
#98Earlier quoted context omitted.
I appreciate the sarcasm. The US is facing the realities caused by somewhere in the order of 50 years of incompetence in government at nearly every level. This isn’t going to change any time soon. While we have been busy de-educating our new generations and worshiping idiots like Bernie and AOC, the Chinese worked hard and went from an agricultural society to the second economy in the world. Well done! A line from St…
> While we have been busy de-educating our new generations and worshiping idiots like Bernie and AOC, the Chinese worked hard and went from an agricultural society to the second economy in the world. It's pretty funny to blame AOC and Bernie, neither who have controlled more than a portion of a state government, for China's rise in relative power over the last 50 years. Additionally what is the supposed enemy here? L…
Not blaming them. Please quote where I blamed them.
They are emblematic of just how wrong things have gone in this country. We live in a time where our young are being indoctrinated into socialism and Marxism by our schools. These are philosophies that have caused until pain and suffering in nearly all corners of this world. We actively have people escaping various veins of these ideologies to come to the US. Once here, they can't comprehend how our young are being sold such nonsense. Pure indoctrination.
My own son was nearly forced to take a class on Marxism at one of the top tech schools in the US as a condition for graduation with an engineering degree. I say "nearly" because the way they did it was "soft". He had to take a humanity and the only class available for a year and a half was "Young Karl Marx". So, go to Marxism class or graduate a year and a half later. Disgusting.
Anyone who thinks these ideas are, in any way, good, has not lived under them. I have. Most of my family has. Friends have. Neighbors have. To call Socialism and Marxism "dangerous bullshit" is to be kind. The problem is the US has no clue what they are walking into. And so people like Bernie, AOC and others are idolized and supported instead of being laughed out of every possible corner of influence in this country.
The average high school graduate in the US is barely good enough to stack boxes in a warehouse or, maybe, make coffee. No financial education. No understanding of business. No marketable skills at all. That's what we are producing by the millions every year. Imagine what we could do if we graduated kids with solid financial, entrepreneurial, business and other chops. It would be absolutely amazing.
Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report
#99Earlier quoted context omitted.
I appreciate the sarcasm. The US is facing the realities caused by somewhere in the order of 50 years of incompetence in government at nearly every level. This isn’t going to change any time soon. While we have been busy de-educating our new generations and worshiping idiots like Bernie and AOC, the Chinese worked hard and went from an agricultural society to the second economy in the world. Well done! A line from St…
This has nothing to do with governments, but is the logical consequence of capitalism - export to the cheapest labour force. And exporting to your national rival to the point of being a national security issue even goes back to the 1600s with the wool and linen industry.
You clearly don't understand how the world works.
Simple example: Did you know the US and Europe have a treaty with China (and other nations) that was signed in 1874 (yes nearly 150 years ago!) that gives China FREE SHIPPING WITHIN THE US?
As a manufacturer, it is actually more expensive to ship something from Los Angeles to New York than from China to anywhere in the US. Why? This treaty subsidizes shipping from China. American tax payers pick-up the bill. US manufacturers can't even compete.
Why was this gift granted? Because back then the intent was to help developing nations. China is now the second largest economy in the world and US taxpayer are still subsidizing every single postal package shipped from China today.
This is but one of the atrocities committed by our incompetent politicians that have caused US industry to steadily lose the ability to compete. This has nothing whatsoever to do with greedy capitalism, that's preposterous.
As usual, people think they know how things work because they reduce reality to a single variable problem. I have been in manufacturing for decades. I can't even count how many variables drive reality, but I can tell you it isn't as simple as casual observers like to think. The usual "greedy corporations" trope is the first thing that reveals someone not having clue. And, to be fair, sometimes the only way to understand it is to be in it up to your neck. Or to listen to those who have first hand experience. That does not include college professors and politicians who have never built anything in their entire lives. Sorry.
Re: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence's Final Report
#100Earlier quoted context omitted.
>>> Instead of US companies having to buy goods from foreign companies, they can just buy the factories and manufacture their own goods with foreign labor. Instead of a free international market for goods, this created a free international market for labor, and a global distributed planned economy I have never thought of the analysis like that. Things like Ricardos law assume countries are independent agents intermed…
Offshoring was almost always about labor. Wall Street wanted higher returns, so the jobs went to cheaper labor pools.
> Offshoring was almost always about labor. Wall Street wanted higher returns, so the jobs went to cheaper labor pools.
Absolutely, 100%, without a doubt, wrong as can be. A complete and utter distortion of the realities that drive and have driven what has been an evolving landscape for decades.
At first, when we were making forks, plates and linen abroad, sure. This has not been the case for a very long time. I would say thirty years, if not forty.
What, then, is the reality of modern offshore manufacturing?
The most important thing the Chinese have done is to build a FULLY INTEGRATED AND SHORT SUPPLY PIPELINE. Period.
Next, they have a massive well-trained and capable technical workforce at every level. From assembly to technicians and engineers. While we were wasting time teaching our kids about Marxism they were educating technicians, engineers and scientists by the millions, as fast as they could. Many of them were educated in US and European universities and went on to spearhead industry efforts and education in China.
After that, once again, while we were indoctrinating our kids on the virtues of Socialism and Marxism, they turned their country into one of the most entrepreneurial forces on earth. The drive you see out of China to just "get shit down" has to be experienced to be believed. It's incredible.
I'll give you a simple example: Say I need to manufacture a part. I send out for quotes to 50 US-based companies and 50 Chinese companies (if I can even find 50 companies in the US). I will likely have more than 50 quotes from the Chines companies OVERNIGHT! More than 50 because some factories will likely connect you with others. The US-based companies? You are lucky if you get five quotes in four weeks. It's that bad. Actually, it's worse than that.
There are other factors, of course. Cost of labor is likely almost dead last in the list of advantages they have.
Why is the supply chain so important? Why are brains so important?
Well, you saw it during this pandemic. The US could not make fucking N95 masks to, quite literally, save our lives. Why? Because we don't even make the cloth, elastic, thread and machines here. Everything is in China. And so, even if money was not important we could not make masks. Such a simple product and we simply could not make them. Still can't, not at scale.
Say you want to make a relatively simple electronic device. Let's assume labor costs you zero in the US due to some amazing automation. You still can't compete with China.
Why?
Because the supply chain isn't here. It's in China. Which means every chip, wire, resistor, screw, sensor, piece of plastic, paper, packaging, box, manufacturing tools and equipment, test equipment, molds, etc. will have to come from China. Which, in turn, means your cost basis increased significantly. If you insist on doing a few things here (like molds and CNC machined parts) you will pay through your teeth, because our wages, taxes, regulatory and other factors cost too much.
This is where the whole discussion about minimum wage starts to come in. If you are forced to pay someone a minimum of $15 per hour, pack it up and ship the work to China, because, whether you know it or not, your business is dead.
In China there are towns that have evolved in order to optimize for certain product classes. Want to make microwave ovens and refrigerators? There's a town where your entire supply chain is within a one hour truck ride from your factory. The same business in the US would have to wait WEEKS TO MONTHS for parts and the supply lines would be nowhere near wherever they might care to locate within the US. Not any more.
I realize that most people are not in manufacturing and simply don't have a clue. I get it. It is too easy to reduce reality to a single variable (labor) and ignore the fact that nothing in life is driven by a single variable. In fact, there are dozens, hundreds of variables that drive different realities.
Companies don't offshore because they are greedy. They offshore because, if they don't, they cease to exist. We have reached a moment in time where, but for a few select market segments, the options have been reduced to one: China.
The fact that our kids don't leave high school and college with a solid financial and entrepreneurial education predicts our future. What we are doing to our kids in our educational institutions (K-12-University) is simply criminal.