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Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

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Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#151
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. Dependence upon East Asian semi fabrication is a liability even if you're best buddies (as with Taiwan). TSMC was founded by Morris Chang -- hard to find a more reasonable, US-friendly, capitalist person in the industry -- but every time a butterfly flaps its wings in Asia-Pacific, we have to worry about the sanctity and continuity of our semiconductor supply chain. NVDA just reported earnings and, while booming,…

Anyone can own stock in NVDA no matter where they live.

I genuinely don't understand the link between your comment and my own.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#152
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's not the case when the government gets involved. We've already seen China build a lot of other infrastructure for no reason. Highways, skyscrapers... China urbanized 550 million people in the last 30 years. They aren't building cities and highways to stand empty. They are building them in advance of demand. Sometimes the demand arrives a few months, or a few years after the infrastructure is in place. [1] All…

No corporation would finish construction of a factory ten years prior to the existence of demand. Companies like to lay out capex as close to income generation as possible. That comes from a shareholder-driven pressure for operational efficiency. It looks bad if Samsung (for example) spends $30B on a fab for which there is little demand. Fab utilization needs to be as close to 100% as possible; even at high utilizati…

The thing is, in China, government can create that demand, by moving government jobs to that city (thus bootstrapping the employment market as a primary employer), or having a state-owned enterprise open a branch office there (again, bootstrapping the employment market.)

Once there's a reason for people to live there, other services and businesses organically move in, to serve those people's market needs.

It's not just a matter of risk tolerance - it's also the ability to coordinate between employers and landlords, to optimize city planning.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe eventually, but at the moment they lag some generations behind US/Japan/Taiwan/Korea. This, in spite of the fact that China has been dumping money into the industry for years. There’s a narrative in the west that China is “willing to spend what it takes to win”, but at the same time, China’s spending is tied up by internal politics (also, corruption, pork, kickbacks) as much as US spending is. China is also, fo…

Exactly. Most narratives hang everything on simplifications like “willing to spend what it takes to win.” Reality is more complex and there are serious drawbacks to any real life examples. A better comparison mould have been circa 2000 "asian tiger" policies of south korea, taiwan, etc. The idea was to subsidize industries with massive growth potential... on a 20-50 year horizon. On that sort of a timeline, F-35 prog…

> Part of the idea behind letting the semiconductor industry decline is that it frees up capital and human resources to work on higher ROI stuff.

Yeah. That’s a very good point, something I haven’t really thought of. I think we could also invest more in semiconductor design, both in making more sophisticated designs and in making semiconductor design accessible to more people (both of which are already happening). I’m talking about “design” in contrast to manufacturing/process concerns. If the process changes slow down a bit, I wonder if we can get ASICs with lower NRE.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#155
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, as it happens. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25604508 AMA

An actual RnD, or engineering? In the link you point to the need of "EU fab." Who do you think will buy its chips? Germans for their cars?

Actually, I am surprised that EU isn't competitive in semiconductors. The value of the euro is pretty low considering that you get access to a high quality workforce that ought to get at least 50% higher salaries. This is how Germany has become an export nation. Adopt a currency whose value is being pushed down by neighboring countries. This makes German exports more competitive in the global market. Why has this not worked out for semiconductors?

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#156
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good thing we aren’t doing anything to destabilize a climate system that’s not causing us too much trouble as of now.

You mean, like manufacturing electronics? It takes about 1MWh to manufacture a laptop, the same energy needed to drive a Tesla for 3000 miles. https://www.networkworld.com/article/2229029/computer-factor...

I drive more than 3000 miles per year and I've got this laptop for 4 years now.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#157
post #133
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nearer 25MWh, and that's just for the battery pack. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00078...

Also, just for fun, the embodied energy of a 1960's Fiat 500 (assuming its entire 500kg weight is made of steel, which is probably a good enough approximation) is 3MWh, or three laptops. So what is more sustainable?

An electric bike?

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#158
post #120
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

just for reference 1kg of aluminum raw material,not alloy, not processed, not packed, not transported - just mined is over 40KWh. In that regard even the raw materials for the car are orders of magnitude over.

Indeed. The embodied energy of the items we use every day is so under-appreciated, probably because we have outsourced the production of almost all of them to countries that have no problem burning oil and coal in the process. Really, if we actually wanted to make motoring sustainable, we would all be driving a 60's era Fiat 500 or Honda C50 moped. They cost very little to make, in every way, are very fuel effecient…

Is there anything wrong with that? If people want EVs that's better than people wanting modern gas guzzlers.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#159
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is known as the Bullwhip effect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect

Could people have anticipated this and speculated to make a bunch of money (with the side effect of smoothing out the demand)? That is, bought a bunch of ... semiconductors of some interchangeable, reliably-demanded sort (I dunno, RAM? Generic Cortex-A77 cores?) a year ago (or whenever production was plentiful), stockpiled them, and sold them for profit today?

Absolutely.

Companies with stock are making bank--there aren't many of them and they're draining. Companies with their own fabs are making bank because they can prioritize their production runs by profitability.

The problem is that inventory has both risk and weird tax consequences so nobody wants to hold it. The risk is simply that nobody ever wants the part so you lose the money you spent. The weird tax consequences are how you "write down" inventory--the problem is that the IRS lumps a lot of inventory into the same boat: bolts are sort of treated the same as semiconductors even though they have very different life cycles.

The real lesson in all this is that there is no longer a surplus in worldwide fab capacity. The "fabless" semiconductor business plans relied on this surplus to beat up the "fab owning" companies for years.

The fabs all just figured out that "Fabs are the walled garden" and the fabless guys just got a reminder that "Your profits are dependent on some else's platform and they can take it away."

It will be interesting to see what the reckoning is after this all shakes out.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The DoD's Industrial Capabilities report to Congress[1] that got posted on HN last week recommended exactly this: > "Outside of the United States, foreign governments and their citizens pay the lion’s share, one way or another, of the cost of building the fab. The companies do not. They take on the other massive set of costs: running the fab. The hard truth is that if the United States does not start doing the same,…

The Chinese government is willing to spend what it takes to win and this is the reason why they will win. The US government is way too reluctant to spend in this regard. The Chinese government is investing hundreds of billions in artificial intelligence, hundreds of billions more in renewables, and so on. I don't see Congress giving a blank check to scientists and engineers, like China does.

The problem is that when you have political allocation of capital, you create a very inefficient economy. Sure, if the goal is to copy someone else that has proven a successful approach you can make good progress with subsidies. But after you drive them out of business, you are stuck with this politically directed R&D agenda that has no one else to copy but is not able to innovate on its own. You quickly lose your way with inefficiencies.

This must be weighed against the fact that subsidized businesses will outcompete less subsidized businesses, and so if you want to bankrupt your foreign competitors you can do that by subsidizing your own domestic firms.

One approach is to not trade or impose targeted tariffs on government subsidies to help balance the scales. That was basically the idea of the 90s era trade agreements, which hasn't worked out so well, as targeted tariffs don't work. You apply a broad, long lasting blanket tariff on all goods coming from the offending country or nothing.

Another approach is to jump in with massive subsidies of your own and create a race to the bottom where every government has to subsidize any industry that some other government is subsidizing.

I'd like to throw restrictions on foreign capital inflows into the mix. A combination of banning capital inflows, some subsidies, and some broad, permanent tariffs against bad actors like China might be the best option to deal with the "spend anything to win" problem. Really we don't know.

What I don't want to see is governments rushing in to subsidize industry in a race to the bottom. That is bad for innovation as well as for democracy.

What the free trade crowd needs to realize that free trade is vulnerable to the subsidize-attack which can destroy your own industries, and right now they have an ideological commitment that is blinding them to this reality.

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