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Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

anandtech.com

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Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#61

Post by AnthonyMouse »

scott_codie wrote: post #59
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Are you saying that Chinese semiconductor companies are outcompeting US semiconductor companies because they have greater access to capital? That doesn't seem right to me. Suppose you have two companies in an industry where the start up cost is ten billion dollars. One can borrow ten billion dollars at 0% interest for the next five years, but they have to pay it back. The other just gets ten billion dollars from th…

Are you saying that the Chinese government is subsidizing the entire semiconductor industry to drive US companies out of business?

Are you saying that the Chinese government is not subsidizing the entire semiconductor industry in China to drive companies outside of China out of business?

They have a documented history of doing this in multiple industries over the course of many years. Notice how substantially all of the consumer electronics devices that used to be made in the US or Japan or Korea or Germany are now made in China.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#62

Post by scott_codie »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #61
scott_codie wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying that the Chinese government is subsidizing the entire semiconductor industry to drive US companies out of business?

Are you saying that the Chinese government is not subsidizing the entire semiconductor industry in China to drive companies outside of China out of business? They have a documented history of doing this in multiple industries over the course of many years. Notice how substantially all of the consumer electronics devices that used to be made in the US or Japan or Korea or Germany are now made in China.

That would be great if they were as it would make Chinese silicon cheaper for the US since they are trading partners.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#63

Post by mastax »

the__alchemist wrote: post #4

I'm having a tough time buying STM32 MCUs. When I started my most recent designs about 6 months ago, the SMT-assembly service I used, and retailers like Digikey and Mouser had ample stock. Now, I'm unable to start production due to being unable to find MCUs. The whole STM32 line is affected - Only a handful of variants are available, which may or may not be the ones a given design can use.

I started a new project last week and I chose my STM32 by sorting by stock High -> Low. A year ago it wasn't even a consideration (I make low volume stuff).

I sent a big complicated board to manufacturing a month ago. I was making changes up to the last minute based on availability. One of the parts went out of stock and I provided an alternate part number. A week ago my assembler contacted me and said that went out of stock as well. I'm a bit pissed off that they didn't order it when they confirmed the change and there was plenty of stock, but I'll cut them some slack because they're in Houston. Now there's no stock of the part anywhere in the world except a single Aliexpress store. I can't overstate how strange it is to see such widespread availability problems. Pretty soon I'll have to design things with nothing but discrete transistors.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#64

Post by 11thEarlOfMar »

baybal2 wrote: post #55
11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a huge boom in equipment in 2017 the 3D NAND demand thundered in. Semis over-invested as they frequently do, and the equipment biz then softened in 2018-2019. 2020 was solid and now 2021 is off to the races again, thanks (sadly) to the technology accelerating effects of COVID.

Are you working in toolmaking by any chance?

Yes, as it happens.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25604508

AMA

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#65

Post by ipsum2 »

bsder wrote: post #46

A lot of this is people now over-ordering since they can get stuck by a shortfall. As soon as the crunch passes, there will be a big drop in demand while people burn down their inventory. Normally, planning is 18-26 weeks out and nobody really worries. Now, planning is 52+ weeks out, and people are stockpiling.

This is known as the Bullwhip effect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#66

Post by AnthonyMouse »

scott_codie wrote: post #62
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying that the Chinese government is not subsidizing the entire semiconductor industry in China to drive companies outside of China out of business? They have a documented history of doing this in multiple industries over the course of many years. Notice how substantially all of the consumer electronics devices that used to be made in the US or Japan or Korea or Germany are now made in China.

That would be great if they were as it would make Chinese silicon cheaper for the US since they are trading partners.

Review the part where they only do this until the competitors are out of business. It's called predatory pricing and is an antitrust violation when companies do it.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#67

Post by AtlasBarfed »

HenryKissinger wrote: post #39
stupidcar wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The DoD's Industrial Capabilities report to Congress[1] that got posted on HN last week recommended exactly this: > "Outside of the United States, foreign governments and their citizens pay the lion’s share, one way or another, of the cost of building the fab. The companies do not. They take on the other massive set of costs: running the fab. The hard truth is that if the United States does not start doing the same,…

The Chinese government is willing to spend what it takes to win and this is the reason why they will win. The US government is way too reluctant to spend in this regard. The Chinese government is investing hundreds of billions in artificial intelligence, hundreds of billions more in renewables, and so on. I don't see Congress giving a blank check to scientists and engineers, like China does.

Well we did it for the F-35.

Defense pork/corruption is a liability in economic war. We need to wake up and realize that China is kicking it into high gear.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#68

Post by baybal2 »

11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #64
baybal2 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you working in toolmaking by any chance?

Yes, as it happens. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25604508 AMA

An actual RnD, or engineering?

In the link you point to the need of "EU fab." Who do you think will buy its chips?

Germans for their cars?

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#69

Post by 11thEarlOfMar »

baybal2 wrote: post #68
11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, as it happens. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25604508 AMA

An actual RnD, or engineering? In the link you point to the need of "EU fab." Who do you think will buy its chips? Germans for their cars?

System engineering. We sell subsystems and components to the equipment companies.

Chips are sold globally for the most part, regardless of where they are made. EU, US, Japan, Taiwan & Korea made chips are typically leading edge and sold globally. Some China-made chips are only used in China, but they have a large export market for low-cost chips.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#70

Post by FooBarWidget »

baybal2 wrote: post #57
UncleOxidant wrote: post #17

Given the strategic importance of semiconductors and how expensive new fabs are and how long they take to start production (if you start planning a new state of the art fab now it'll take ~5 years before it's ready to produce chips) it seems like perhaps we need to look a public-private partnerships here in the US. The Chinese government is funding fabs. While we tend to be squeamish about such things here in the US,…

Making chips in US makes little sense except to get the coveted tarif relief for the very few remaining highly tarriffed goods. And if China decides to put sanctions on your fabs, you will just get a $10B microelectronics theme park on your hands because you will have nowhere to sell your chips. Do not count the last point lightly. I'm fully serious saying that US will likely have nowhere to sell those chips to. And…

> And if China decides to put sanctions on your fabs, you will just get a $10B microelectronics theme park on your hands because you will have nowhere to sell your chips.

This is already happening. Except that the sanctions came from the US, not from China. The US forced TSMC not to sell to Huawei and other Chinese companies the US put on the entity list. Chinese companies that aren't yet sanctioned, are becoming reluctant to buy chips from foreign suppliers.

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