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Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election

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Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election

#41

Post by tshaddox »

Imnimo wrote: post #25
pdonis wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the problem with prediction markets is you have the incentive to make the prediction come true If players in the market have ways outside the market to significantly affect the outcome that the market is betting on, then it isn't a prediction market. The whole point of a prediction market is that there is no such feedback mechanism. For example, the article discusses prediction market bets on Trump winning the elec…

>The underlying assumption of such markets is that no player has more than one vote in the actual election, out of some 150 million or so votes, so each individual player's ability to affect the outcome is negligible. But this is not necessarily true. In the extreme case, a bettor could be one of nine Supreme Court justices. Or a participant in some sort of fantasy vote-rigging conspiracy. Or even a political insider…

Sure, that’s why there are rules about when and how a CEO can sell their company’s stock (they generally have to announce the sale in advance). I’m not sure about the laws around Supreme Court justices, but I’m pretty sure it’s at least well-accepted that no judge should work a case when they have a personal interest in the outcome. I hope that would be grounds for removing a justice.

Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election

#42

Post by lucasverra »

avarun wrote: post #21
Supermancho wrote: post #15

What I read was a story of making money from some niche prediction market sites (that I would never touch). There is also quite a bit of handwaving, eg "I saw more and more arguments from Very Smart People whom I respected arguing that the markets were in fact being irrational and I should participate and bet against them if I can. Eventually, I was convinced." and showing some math from trivial arbitrary scenarios t…

...it's written by Vitalik Buterin. Of course he thinks Ethereum is good?

Vitalik is Ethereum founder

Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election

#43

Post by fallingfrog »

tom_mellior wrote: post #22
Aqua wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure I understand your comment. Crypto was always about freedom, and as things stand the right is advocating for freedom more than the left (gun rights, freedom of speech, smaller taxes). Crypto was always about freedom, you're liberated from the dependence on your country, bank, or whatever else it may be. Your fate is in your own hands, your wallet, your funds.

> the right is advocating for freedom more than the left (gun rights, freedom of speech, smaller taxes). You got that backwards: The left is advocating for freedom more than the right (freedom from gun violence, freedom from hate speech, freedom from preventable/treatable medical conditions).

The kind of freedom the left advocates is more about freedom from being dominated by some authority; but we see your boss or your landlord as being more of an immediate authority than the government. So we support labor organizing and tenant rights. Many leftists support the right to bear arms (Karl Marx, famously).

Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election

#44

Post by viklove »

fallingfrog wrote: post #35

I think what we’re seeing is that the set of people making bets on political outcomes leans sharply Republican. It’s selection bias. There may be a broader message there about representation too: if you are sitting in a meeting and 8 people think something is going to happen, but you disagree, and they are all upper class men (for example), and you’re a lower class woman, you probably have a better than 1 in 9 chance…

You should start a quant firm employing only lower class women, and use their insight to decide which companies to invest in. If your hypothesis is correct, you'll be filthy rich in no time at all.

Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election

#45

Post by fallingfrog »

DC1350 wrote: post #28
tom_mellior wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the right is advocating for freedom more than the left (gun rights, freedom of speech, smaller taxes). You got that backwards: The left is advocating for freedom more than the right (freedom from gun violence, freedom from hate speech, freedom from preventable/treatable medical conditions).

It's a positive vs negative liberty difference. Decentralization and unregulated currency is aligned with the right wing ideas about freedom.

The original meaning of “right wing” meant supporters of monarchy or aristocracy. (The supporters of the aristocracy sat on the right in the Estates General assemblies right before the French Revolution, the commoners on the left). What you are describing is a free market libertarianism that denies or pretends that class doesn’t exist at all, which generally serves the interests of economic aristocracy.

Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election

#46

Post by as300 »

I see quite a bit of disappointing talk that disregards the contents of the article, here.

Namely, the author names one sort of bias that led 'Very Smart People' to give an outsized likelihood of Trump winning:

>I remember thinking at the time that this particular opinion of his was over-confident, perhaps even a result of over-internalizing the heuristic that if a viewpoint seems clever and contrarian then it is likely to be correct.

Doesn't this explain crypto-user's pro-Trump bias? Someone who uses crypto as a way to play on a prediction market is necessarily going to be contrarian, to some degree (remember we're being constantly bombarded by claims of how all crypto is "just speculation"). In the same way, believing Trump actually has a case for overturning the election results is a highly contrarian view.

Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election

#47

Post by lunatuna »

Supermancho wrote: post #15

What I read was a story of making money from some niche prediction market sites (that I would never touch). There is also quite a bit of handwaving, eg "I saw more and more arguments from Very Smart People whom I respected arguing that the markets were in fact being irrational and I should participate and bet against them if I can. Eventually, I was convinced." and showing some math from trivial arbitrary scenarios t…

I think the fascinating part of this article is in the third paragraph: ". . . I would make all of these remaining bets, against willing counterparties, after Trump had already lost the election." I wasn't expecting that. But we are in GME and WSB phase of markets. I guess I have a lot of catching up to do.

Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election

#48

Post by TLightful »

IAmEveryone wrote: post #5

I've always had the impression that the cryptocurrency community was trending rightwards. So it's good to see some quantifiable evidence of it. Which leaves the question: why? Technology as a whole is centre-left, so there's something else going on. One common theme seems to a loss of trust in any institutions, and democracy itself: "the FED is just a private bank" isn't far away from "the mainstream media is lying",…

"trending rightwards" .... LOL!!! ...

Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election

#49

Post by UncleMeat »

Aqua wrote: post #10
IAmEveryone wrote: post #5

I've always had the impression that the cryptocurrency community was trending rightwards. So it's good to see some quantifiable evidence of it. Which leaves the question: why? Technology as a whole is centre-left, so there's something else going on. One common theme seems to a loss of trust in any institutions, and democracy itself: "the FED is just a private bank" isn't far away from "the mainstream media is lying",…

I'm not sure I understand your comment. Crypto was always about freedom, and as things stand the right is advocating for freedom more than the left (gun rights, freedom of speech, smaller taxes). Crypto was always about freedom, you're liberated from the dependence on your country, bank, or whatever else it may be. Your fate is in your own hands, your wallet, your funds.

> right is advocating for freedom more than the left (gun rights, freedom of speech, smaller taxes)

immigration, religious tolerance, lgbt rights.

Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election

#50

Post by UncleMeat »

undefined1 wrote: post #24
tom_mellior wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the right is advocating for freedom more than the left (gun rights, freedom of speech, smaller taxes). You got that backwards: The left is advocating for freedom more than the right (freedom from gun violence, freedom from hate speech, freedom from preventable/treatable medical conditions).

agree about freedom re: healthcare. it would also mean freedom to take risks as a creator or entrepreneur, if you don't have to rely on an employer for health insurance. the gun issue is a city vs rural thing. you don't want them in a city, but you might in the rural context. > freedom from hate speech but reframing censorship as freedom is blatantly Orwellian. also, the left is not a monolith. the liberal left advoc…

> reframing censorship as freedom is blatantly Orwellian.

Why? People largely agree that things like false advertising and fraud regulations increase freedom, despite being literally censorship.

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