21–30 of 191 posts
What I read was a story of making money from some niche prediction market sites (that I would never touch). There is also quite a bit of handwaving, eg "I saw more and more arguments from Very Smart People whom I respected arguing that the markets were in fact being irrational and I should participate and bet against them if I can. Eventually, I was convinced." and showing some math from trivial arbitrary scenarios t…
I've always had the impression that the cryptocurrency community was trending rightwards. So it's good to see some quantifiable evidence of it. Which leaves the question: why? Technology as a whole is centre-left, so there's something else going on. One common theme seems to a loss of trust in any institutions, and democracy itself: "the FED is just a private bank" isn't far away from "the mainstream media is lying",…
I'm not sure I understand your comment. Crypto was always about freedom, and as things stand the right is advocating for freedom more than the left (gun rights, freedom of speech, smaller taxes). Crypto was always about freedom, you're liberated from the dependence on your country, bank, or whatever else it may be. Your fate is in your own hands, your wallet, your funds.
You got that backwards: The left is advocating for freedom more than the right (freedom from gun violence, freedom from hate speech, freedom from preventable/treatable medical conditions).
I've always had the impression that the cryptocurrency community was trending rightwards. So it's good to see some quantifiable evidence of it. Which leaves the question: why? Technology as a whole is centre-left, so there's something else going on. One common theme seems to a loss of trust in any institutions, and democracy itself: "the FED is just a private bank" isn't far away from "the mainstream media is lying",…
That's not quantifiable evidence of a political bias. You win in a prediction market by guessing who will win, not by stating who you want to win.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not sure I understand your comment. Crypto was always about freedom, and as things stand the right is advocating for freedom more than the left (gun rights, freedom of speech, smaller taxes). Crypto was always about freedom, you're liberated from the dependence on your country, bank, or whatever else it may be. Your fate is in your own hands, your wallet, your funds.
> the right is advocating for freedom more than the left (gun rights, freedom of speech, smaller taxes). You got that backwards: The left is advocating for freedom more than the right (freedom from gun violence, freedom from hate speech, freedom from preventable/treatable medical conditions).
the gun issue is a city vs rural thing. you don't want them in a city, but you might in the rural context.
> freedom from hate speech
but reframing censorship as freedom is blatantly Orwellian. also, the left is not a monolith.
the liberal left advocates for free speech and liberty. aligned with freedom.
the illiberal left advocates for censorship and control. the opposite of freedom.
"The best way to predict the future is to create it." I always thought the the problem with prediction markets is you have the incentive to make the prediction come true. And that gets ugly fast. But hell, I guess that's what all this is at the end of the day.
> the problem with prediction markets is you have the incentive to make the prediction come true If players in the market have ways outside the market to significantly affect the outcome that the market is betting on, then it isn't a prediction market. The whole point of a prediction market is that there is no such feedback mechanism. For example, the article discusses prediction market bets on Trump winning the elec…
But this is not necessarily true. In the extreme case, a bettor could be one of nine Supreme Court justices. Or a participant in some sort of fantasy vote-rigging conspiracy. Or even a political insider tanking their candidate's own chances and betting against themselves. There's a pretty wide range of people who could plausibly (or not-so-plausibly in the conspiracy example) have more than a one-vote influence over the result of the election.
I've always had the impression that the cryptocurrency community was trending rightwards. So it's good to see some quantifiable evidence of it. Which leaves the question: why? Technology as a whole is centre-left, so there's something else going on. One common theme seems to a loss of trust in any institutions, and democracy itself: "the FED is just a private bank" isn't far away from "the mainstream media is lying",…
I've always had the impression that the cryptocurrency community was trending rightwards. So it's good to see some quantifiable evidence of it. Which leaves the question: why? Technology as a whole is centre-left, so there's something else going on. One common theme seems to a loss of trust in any institutions, and democracy itself: "the FED is just a private bank" isn't far away from "the mainstream media is lying",…
I'm not sure I understand your comment. Crypto was always about freedom, and as things stand the right is advocating for freedom more than the left (gun rights, freedom of speech, smaller taxes). Crypto was always about freedom, you're liberated from the dependence on your country, bank, or whatever else it may be. Your fate is in your own hands, your wallet, your funds.
I don't think that's quite clear cut. The right politically makes more hay about freedoms these days, but they have equally strong positions that are anti-freedom (pro-life, voting restrictions, immigration policies, drug policies, religion) and the left has pretty strong advocacy areas for freedom (religion, drug policies, "gay marriage" ) etc.
Crypto has always been about a number of things.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not sure I understand your comment. Crypto was always about freedom, and as things stand the right is advocating for freedom more than the left (gun rights, freedom of speech, smaller taxes). Crypto was always about freedom, you're liberated from the dependence on your country, bank, or whatever else it may be. Your fate is in your own hands, your wallet, your funds.
> the right is advocating for freedom more than the left (gun rights, freedom of speech, smaller taxes). You got that backwards: The left is advocating for freedom more than the right (freedom from gun violence, freedom from hate speech, freedom from preventable/treatable medical conditions).
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yep, it clearly leads into assassination markets - for example, opening a large bet that person X will die on a specific date.
Isn't that just life insurance?
"The best way to predict the future is to create it." I always thought the the problem with prediction markets is you have the incentive to make the prediction come true. And that gets ugly fast. But hell, I guess that's what all this is at the end of the day.
Yep, it clearly leads into assassination markets - for example, opening a large bet that person X will die on a specific date.
Opening a market on when they will die that goes to the person who is closest to the right date, now any would-be assassin can place their bet and try to win. And the target may know that people are hunting for them, but won't be forewarned of when.