Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
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Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
#2I considered myself pretty in-the-know and knew about Predictit, all kinds of crypto, and therefore I thought I was up-to-date on the crypto news but I did not even know that there was a crypto clone of Predictit.
>blockchain-based markets are highly niche
Not sure if he means if the whole of blockchain is highly niche or blockchain-based prediction markets are highly niche, but if it's the latter, I definitely agree.
Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
#3"The best way to predict the future is to create it."
I always thought the the problem with prediction markets is you have the incentive to make the prediction come true. And that gets ugly fast. But hell, I guess that's what all this is at the end of the day.
Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
#4>Blockchains are often criticized for being speculative toys and not doing anything meaningful except for self->referential games (tokens, with yield farming, whose returns are powered by... the launch of other tokens). There >are certainly exceptions that the critics fail to recognize; I personally have benefited from ENS and even from >using ETH for payments on several occasions where all credit card options failed. But over the last few months, >it seems like we have seen a rapid burst in Ethereum applications being concretely useful for people and >interacting with the real world, and prediction markets are a key example of this.
Was hunting this week for real-world use cases for blockchains, this is one to add to the list I feel.
Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
#5I've always had the impression that the cryptocurrency community was trending rightwards. So it's good to see some quantifiable evidence of it.
Which leaves the question: why? Technology as a whole is centre-left, so there's something else going on.
One common theme seems to a loss of trust in any institutions, and democracy itself: "the FED is just a private bank" isn't far away from "the mainstream media is lying", and even the latter is an opinion more common among the crypto bubble as far as I can tell.
Or are crytocurrencies of interest primarily to people interested in "getting rich, fast" and therefore liable to glorify a self-annoited master of making money with little work?
Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
#6"The best way to predict the future is to create it." I always thought the the problem with prediction markets is you have the incentive to make the prediction come true. And that gets ugly fast. But hell, I guess that's what all this is at the end of the day.
Yep, it clearly leads into assassination markets - for example, opening a large bet that person X will die on a specific date.
Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
#7One thing he didn't talk about was capital gains tax.
If I wanted to bet on the election, I would first have to realize my short term capital gains.
Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
#8I've always had the impression that the cryptocurrency community was trending rightwards. So it's good to see some quantifiable evidence of it. Which leaves the question: why? Technology as a whole is centre-left, so there's something else going on. One common theme seems to a loss of trust in any institutions, and democracy itself: "the FED is just a private bank" isn't far away from "the mainstream media is lying",…
The enormously wasteful environmental cost of PoW is certainly a turn off to those of us on the left as well.
Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
#9I've always had the impression that the cryptocurrency community was trending rightwards. So it's good to see some quantifiable evidence of it. Which leaves the question: why? Technology as a whole is centre-left, so there's something else going on. One common theme seems to a loss of trust in any institutions, and democracy itself: "the FED is just a private bank" isn't far away from "the mainstream media is lying",…
That's not quantifiable evidence of a political bias. You win in a prediction market by guessing who will win, not by stating who you want to win.
Re: Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
#10I've always had the impression that the cryptocurrency community was trending rightwards. So it's good to see some quantifiable evidence of it. Which leaves the question: why? Technology as a whole is centre-left, so there's something else going on. One common theme seems to a loss of trust in any institutions, and democracy itself: "the FED is just a private bank" isn't far away from "the mainstream media is lying",…
I'm not sure I understand your comment. Crypto was always about freedom, and as things stand the right is advocating for freedom more than the left (gun rights, freedom of speech, smaller taxes).
Crypto was always about freedom, you're liberated from the dependence on your country, bank, or whatever else it may be. Your fate is in your own hands, your wallet, your funds.