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I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

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Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#171

Post by 1experience »

drcross wrote: post #100

I'm Irish in Ireland, I've been following the matter closely. Ireland had one of the strictest lockdowns in most of Europe since March, no pubs, nightclubs, limited restaurants, churches, limited sports, 5km travel restrictions were on and off. We masked up early and our national broadcaster was constantly warning everyone non-stop. Schools were open however. We were the poster boy for lockdown success up until at le…

Just imagine if they had used all the propaganda to promote exercise and healthy eating to the population while handing out free bottles of vitamin d3 instead of the opposite (stay inside, don't sunbathe, don't exercise, eat poorly due to depression and economic hardship)

1) this is Sweden 2020 death rate compared to other Scandinavian countries (no lockdown, no masks) https://preview.redd.it/jujfoejeqwa61.png?width=1024&auto=we...

2) these are some of the effects caused by lockdowns worldwide https://outline.com/JKgfuv

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#172

Post by cactus2093 »

potshot wrote: post #123
cactus2093 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What everyone seems to be assuming is that this new strain will cause a constant increase in the reproduction number R of ~50% in every situation. I haven't really seen any discussion of if and why that is actually a good extrapolation to make. So for example in a specific situation, with a specific type of intermingling of a population in which the R value was, say, 1.2, we think the new strain caused that to increa…

> The health department has exactly zero plans regarding the vaccine I'm in San Francisco and a family member runs a specialty clinic here. They worked directly with the health department last week to get their staff vaccinated as part of Phase 1a described here: https://sf.gov/covid-19-vaccine-san-francisco I'm not saying the performance so far is outstanding or good, but it's simply not true that the health departm…

I mean members of the board of supervisors can't even figure out if the health department has an actual plan or what it is https://twitter.com/MattHaneySF/status/1349189438241325057

I guess "exactly zero" is poor wording, but they seem to only have a very loosely defined plan that hasn't bothered going beyond phase 1A tier 1 even though vaccines started being distributed a month ago and 2/3 of them statewide are just sitting around.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#173

Post by aidenn0 »

kansface wrote: post #118
aidenn0 wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. It's not literally "c'mon man" it's "look at these graphs, then 'c'mon, man'." 2. They stipulate that lots of people didn't get tested, but believe it to be an order of magnitude less than the CDC estimates.

I have no trouble believing the 3x rate given that I believe I had Covid in April and was steadfastly refused a test, and later in November, after traveling, was refused testing once more. There still isn't sufficient testing capacity for everyone who wants one, and even then, not everyone who is sick wants a test.

FWIW, every single person I know who I know who "believe they had covid in April" who later got an antibody test tested negative.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#174

Post by thesimon »

kaczordon wrote: post #47

I feel like everyone continues to assume COVID-19 infection has an exponential curve but it's been shown by Nobel prize winner Michael Levitt that it actually follows a Gompertz function more accurately. Not only that but the WHO recently released a statement saying that PCR testing for COVID-19 is not suitable as it detects many forms of respiratory problems including the common cold. I feel like the author of this…

>Not only that but the WHO recently released a statement saying that PCR testing for COVID-19 is not suitable as it detects many forms of respiratory problems including the common cold.

From what I read in the WHO link, they are mostly saying that users should read the manual and check the cycle treshold to make sure no false negative results are seen.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#175

Post by jsnell »

randomsearch wrote: post #81
raverbashing wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually the new strain is already responsible for 45% of infections in Ireland (as per yesterday's NPHET briefing) while it was 10% at the beginning of the year IIRC So yeah it's not the whole story, but it is an important part of it.

There really is no convincing evidence in the public domain that new variants have caused the increase in cases, and there is a very convincing alternative explanation that opening up the shops three weeks before Christmas then relaxing the rules over the holidays (the u turn coming too late) would cause it. If the new variant caused a big increase in R then I doubt the lockdown would have brought R under 1 in the U.…

Really? I would say the evidence is incredibly strong at this point, and it's very hard to explain it spreading this successfully via any effect other than selective advantage. The "founder effect" and "post facto identification" explanations are just not credible any more, given that the explosive growth of B.1.1.7 compared to the wildtype has continued for almost a month after it was raised as a concern, and the pattern having now repeated in at least three other countries with enough data to make prevalence estimates (Ireland, Denmark and Switzerland).

What alternative explanation would you propose?

If the new variant is 50% more transmissive, then to get R to 1 requires measures that would previously have taken R to about 0.66. Clearly that is possible to achieve. But it's also not really enough. Can they get it significantly below 1, and for how long?

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#176

Post by discreteevent »

drcross wrote: post #142
salmon30salmon wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you. I honestly believe that there is a non-trivial percentage of the population that _likes_ the COVID world and wants to keep it going as long as possible. Some may like working remotely, others may like the wider acceptance of meal and grocery delivery, others may prefer the reduction in greenhouse gases. That is the only way I can rationalize the insistence of lockdowns here on HN and elsewhere. Either that…

I agree. I think it's a combination of factors- The people who are currently on a good WFH salary are seeing their savings grow thinking they are doing well for themselves because soon they will buy a house but what they don't realise is that eventually they will have to pay for the 400k people on the pandemic unemployment payment, the 5 billion that was lost this year in tourism, the 10 million we are spending weekl…

They may not be stung for the tax. Zero interest loans with an infinite term are effectively being granted by the ECB.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#177

Post by dragonwriter »

nickelcitymario wrote: post #116
Barrin92 wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Representative government caving to demands when the demands are terrible, like in this case, is not a good thing. In that moment what is needed is enough guts to see the measures through and fend interest groups off. Loss of leadership and movement towards "the customer is king" politics is responsible for a lot of mistakes in the response to this virus.

If we believe in democracy, we necessarily must believe that the crowd - the mob, if you're feeling less generous - is better at making decisions than any small group of people. Which means believing that it's better to implement a terrible but popular decision than to override the will of the people. So in this case, IF the majority supported lifting restrictions (and I'm not Irish so I have no idea what the public…

> If we believe in democracy, we necessarily must believe that the crowd - the mob, if you're feeling less generous - is better at making decisions than any small group of people

Well, no.

If we believe in democracy, we believe that government must ultimately serve and be accountable to the people.

It's possible along with that to also believe that it is a bad idea for the crowd to have day-to-day responsibility for the detailed decisions of government (if nothing else because of the dynamics of extra-large groups a d the communications problems involved), which might motivate us to prefer that democracy be representative rather than direct, with a relatively small group, that it is accountable to the crowd, making decisions.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#178

Post by School-Cotton »

ryandrake wrote: post #162
salmon30salmon wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you. I honestly believe that there is a non-trivial percentage of the population that _likes_ the COVID world and wants to keep it going as long as possible. Some may like working remotely, others may like the wider acceptance of meal and grocery delivery, others may prefer the reduction in greenhouse gases. That is the only way I can rationalize the insistence of lockdowns here on HN and elsewhere. Either that…

It’s pretty simple to me: I like being alive and want to continue living. I’m old, but not “will probably die next year” old, and I’m out of shape. I have a family and a kid who wants to keep her daddy around. The economy will recover. People will get back to working and shopping later. What we can’t do yet is come back from the dead.

> People will get back to working and shopping later.

Yes, but...

We all have a small finite number of years on this earth, and even fewer when we're young. I'll never get 2020 back, and who knows how much of how many people's lives will be lived in poverty and other forms of misery because of the economic destruction we've opted into to slow the spread of the virus.

Would you tell someone condemned to a prison term that it's not a big deal because they will eventually get out and go back to living normally?

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#179

Post by scsilver »

Mediterraneo10 wrote: post #170
scsilver wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have opinions about 1. holding the damn until the vaccine gets deployed 2. What are your concerns if any about the long term illnesses and organ damage in younger covid afflicted patients. I agree with your points except for those two key considerations. Because of this, I am for continuing lockdowns and distancing until the vaccine and refuse to potentially subject myself to life long debilitation when waitin…

Not the OP, but 1) officials in several EU countries have recently said that restrictions will probably exist until very late 2021, because even in a best-case scenario not enough of the public will be vaccinated until then. I personally would not accept borders being closed for so long among fraternal European countries. Even more seriously, the mass events and ordinary courtship opportunities that are so important…

I can definitely empathize with your first point, late 2021 is a rediculous time tax on the youth, who have yet again paid far more for this crisis in terms of missed opportunities and asset inflation. Closed state borders would be untenable over here in the US.

For the second point, this article has shaken me a bit, and I've limited my exposure(stoped going to the store, eating out(outside), etc. I love my heart and my ability to do strenuous excersizes(skier, climber, and raver) and have decide to wait out these next few months for the vaccine.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/16/well/move/is-coronavirus-...

Obviously its not a full study, but in light of lacking information, ill play a risk adverse hand.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#180

Post by School-Cotton »

BillyTheKing wrote: post #137
nradov wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A similar study in part of India found an antibody seroprevalence rate of 57% and a corresponding IFR under 0.1%. https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/57-sero-prevalence-in-sl... There could be other explanations beyond widespread existing immunity. For example could diet be a factor?

the most likely explanation is just age-distribution. The vast majority of our covid-fatalities are older than 70, most are 80 or older. To make things worse, many of them live in retirement homes which turn into death traps once the virus entered. That's all fairly unique to Western societies and is definitely one explanation for vastly different IFRs.

As an Indian acquaintance explained to me bluntly: if you were going to die of Covid, in that part of the world you've probably already died of something else.
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