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I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

epsilontheory.com

41–50 of 206 posts

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#41

Assuming all it takes is a strict 3 week shutdown, why can’t we have that? Or is the assumption wrong? Why weren’t we able to produce enough stock for 3 weeks of total halt?

It all started with one case. So unless you can really extinguish it, which is borderline impossible due to people not taking lockdowns seriously, it is just gonna start back up again.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought the exact same thing- "The Ireland Event" being the Catholic-Protestant conflict in the latter part of the 20th century

Really quck edit: this is probably the most controversial comment that I have posted here. However, without a proper survey I am still not convinced that someone will associate "the Irish problem" with the violence there. Take the discussion below with a grain of salt and I hope that you, assuming that you are in the west coast or Atlantic coast, consider if someone (a random person) in the Midwest will know this. To…

Surely the bombs in London and Manchester were international news at the time, at least throughout the Western world?

Next you'll tell me the average American is unaware of the 7 July bombs on the London Underground, the ETA bombs in Spain, Breivik in Norway or the sarin gas attacks in Tokyo.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#43

This is really poorly reasoned. To take a couple examples: > Using data from flu monitoring programs in prior years, the CDC models project that 70 MILLION Americans have already gotten sick with symptomatic Covid, but decided to just write it off as a bad cold and never got tested. I am not making this up. Why is this hard to believe? Covid testing, especially depending on where you live, can be difficult to obtain.…

Agreed. Some people just don't care about testing.

I am friends with a doctor who tested positive. They went into quarantine with their whole family, assuming they would all get it one way or another, and didn't bother with further testing. I suspect this is the case for a lot of people.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#44

This is really poorly reasoned. To take a couple examples: > Using data from flu monitoring programs in prior years, the CDC models project that 70 MILLION Americans have already gotten sick with symptomatic Covid, but decided to just write it off as a bad cold and never got tested. I am not making this up. Why is this hard to believe? Covid testing, especially depending on where you live, can be difficult to obtain.…

> getting a Covid test just satisfies your curiosity, because you're going to be isolating anyway. Ehhh, people might be avoiding the test ... to avoid having to isolate. I am making this shit up, but I wouldn't be surprised.

That's a good point. Covid testing can be irrelevant to your decision-making in the wrong direction as well.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#46
post #13

Disclaimer: I'm Irish, working in tech but my hobby that gets me more of a social life is involvement with an Irish political party. The new variant accounted for 10-25% of these new cases over the period of that spike. The spike happened two weeks after Christmas when lock-down restrictions were lifted, as planned in October, so people could have a respite after 9 months of all this. Did the government misjudge just…

Also Irish. +1 on your assessment here. The virulent strain narrative was peddled by the Irish government who went against medical advice and tried to deflect blame. The evidence doesn’t support the narrative.

I think the COVID-fatigue angle is quite interesting though. As critical as I am of the government they were under a lot of pressure from the populous to provide some sort of respite.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#47
I feel like everyone continues to assume COVID-19 infection has an exponential curve but it's been shown by Nobel prize winner Michael Levitt that it actually follows a Gompertz function more accurately. Not only that but the WHO recently released a statement saying that PCR testing for COVID-19 is not suitable as it detects many forms of respiratory problems including the common cold.

I feel like the author of this article is simplifying a complex topic.

[1] https://youtu.be/Uw2ZTaiN97k [2] https://www.who.int/news/item/14-12-2020-who-information-not...

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought the exact same thing- "The Ireland Event" being the Catholic-Protestant conflict in the latter part of the 20th century

Really quck edit: this is probably the most controversial comment that I have posted here. However, without a proper survey I am still not convinced that someone will associate "the Irish problem" with the violence there. Take the discussion below with a grain of salt and I hope that you, assuming that you are in the west coast or Atlantic coast, consider if someone (a random person) in the Midwest will know this. To…

[deleted]

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#49

This is really poorly reasoned. To take a couple examples: > Using data from flu monitoring programs in prior years, the CDC models project that 70 MILLION Americans have already gotten sick with symptomatic Covid, but decided to just write it off as a bad cold and never got tested. I am not making this up. Why is this hard to believe? Covid testing, especially depending on where you live, can be difficult to obtain.…

>"Social behaviors" are not what slows down Rt when you get to 60% of the entire human population infected; the number of targets gradually diminishes, slowing the spread.

Or the virus mutates, and off you go on another round. We have a couple of corona viruses that are already endemic in the human population, what makes you think this one will just die out naturally?

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#50

This is really poorly reasoned. To take a couple examples: > Using data from flu monitoring programs in prior years, the CDC models project that 70 MILLION Americans have already gotten sick with symptomatic Covid, but decided to just write it off as a bad cold and never got tested. I am not making this up. Why is this hard to believe? Covid testing, especially depending on where you live, can be difficult to obtain.…

> Why is this hard to believe?

That's the core of what the article is about; it's hard to believe based on comparing testing and hospitalization numbers.

> "Social behaviors" are not what slows down Rt ... the number of targets gradually diminishes

Those aren't mutually exclusive, and it is possible to change social behaviors fast enough that it happens before you reach a threshold where you get significant slowing due to reduction in available "targets".

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