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I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

epsilontheory.com

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Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#161
There's a phenomena happening for hundreds of thousands of years called "winter".

Every single one of these "winters" we see an exponential rise in respiratory illnesses like the flu or COVID-19. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/figures/m6223a5f1....

If things *didn't* go up >10x, it would be news.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#162

I'm Irish in Ireland, I've been following the matter closely. Ireland had one of the strictest lockdowns in most of Europe since March, no pubs, nightclubs, limited restaurants, churches, limited sports, 5km travel restrictions were on and off. We masked up early and our national broadcaster was constantly warning everyone non-stop. Schools were open however. We were the poster boy for lockdown success up until at le…

Thank you. I honestly believe that there is a non-trivial percentage of the population that _likes_ the COVID world and wants to keep it going as long as possible. Some may like working remotely, others may like the wider acceptance of meal and grocery delivery, others may prefer the reduction in greenhouse gases. That is the only way I can rationalize the insistence of lockdowns here on HN and elsewhere. Either that…

It’s pretty simple to me: I like being alive and want to continue living. I’m old, but not “will probably die next year” old, and I’m out of shape. I have a family and a kid who wants to keep her daddy around. The economy will recover. People will get back to working and shopping later. What we can’t do yet is come back from the dead.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#163
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a finite population on the earth, clearly it has to end at some point for that particular strain, but again, it can evolve and the new strain could then grow exponentially again. It's likely already happened.

Is there evidence that surviving infection results in immunity forever? I don’t think we know since the disease is so new. For all we know, you can get it year after year like the flu or a cold.

AFAIK we don’t (can’t, really) know either way, but viruses it’s more closely related to (SARS 1, MERS) don’t seem to have that kind of flu behavior.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#164

A big problem is that nobody seems to be monitoring Covid antibodies in a large-scale, consistent way. Here's the CDC's "COVID-19 Serology Surveillance Strategy" [1] They have a few tools. One is a blood donor test, where donated blood is tested for antibodies. Another is random sampling of blood tests taken for other medical reasons. Those establish bounds - blood donors are healthier than average, and people gettin…

Antibody tests only give us estimates of the number of people who have had COVID-19. Some patients, especially the asymptomatic ones, either never produce detectible levels of antibodies or have them fade away quickly. We can get somewhat more accurate numbers by also checking immune system memory cells, but that's a more complex assay and difficult to do in large studies.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#165

I'm Irish in Ireland, I've been following the matter closely. Ireland had one of the strictest lockdowns in most of Europe since March, no pubs, nightclubs, limited restaurants, churches, limited sports, 5km travel restrictions were on and off. We masked up early and our national broadcaster was constantly warning everyone non-stop. Schools were open however. We were the poster boy for lockdown success up until at le…

Do you have opinions about

1. holding the damn until the vaccine gets deployed 2. What are your concerns if any about the long term illnesses and organ damage in younger covid afflicted patients.

I agree with your points except for those two key considerations.

Because of this, I am for continuing lockdowns and distancing until the vaccine and refuse to potentially subject myself to life long debilitation when waiting 3 more months would offer significantly more protection.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#166

I'm Irish in Ireland, I've been following the matter closely. Ireland had one of the strictest lockdowns in most of Europe since March, no pubs, nightclubs, limited restaurants, churches, limited sports, 5km travel restrictions were on and off. We masked up early and our national broadcaster was constantly warning everyone non-stop. Schools were open however. We were the poster boy for lockdown success up until at le…

Thank you. I honestly believe that there is a non-trivial percentage of the population that _likes_ the COVID world and wants to keep it going as long as possible. Some may like working remotely, others may like the wider acceptance of meal and grocery delivery, others may prefer the reduction in greenhouse gases. That is the only way I can rationalize the insistence of lockdowns here on HN and elsewhere. Either that…

Totally agree. Weird stuff.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#167

Assuming all it takes is a strict 3 week shutdown, why can’t we have that? Or is the assumption wrong? Why weren’t we able to produce enough stock for 3 weeks of total halt?

A 3 week shutdown is politically not feasible, a high percentage of people would just ignore it, with plenty of them yelling and screaming on Parl... Twitter. Somehow it's easier to do in a police state like China. Or maybe a country where there's still a high degree of solidarity (don't quote me, I'm not an expert on exactly why) like New Zealand.

Neither China nor New Zealand was ever completely shut down. The closest thing was Wuhan - but that is only one tiny part of China.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you. I honestly believe that there is a non-trivial percentage of the population that _likes_ the COVID world and wants to keep it going as long as possible. Some may like working remotely, others may like the wider acceptance of meal and grocery delivery, others may prefer the reduction in greenhouse gases. That is the only way I can rationalize the insistence of lockdowns here on HN and elsewhere. Either that…

> I honestly believe that there is a non-trivial percentage of the population that _likes_ the COVID world and wants to keep it going as long as possible. I believe two factors at play can be identified: 1) Among ordinary internet users, the “stay home and save lives” recommendation in spring of last year became highly memetic, and although the median age of death is now there for anyone to learn, the blanket admonis…

I don’t think “wanting to live and not spread around a deadly disease” is some overly-woke activist cause or concern-trolling.

It’s ok to admonish people for drunk driving, which is a lot like “horsing around during a global pandemic”: optional, careless risk-taking behavior, that is risky for both you and everyone else. Why is it fine to shame people for drunk driving but not for spreading COVID?

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#169
post #73
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also Irish. +1 on your assessment here. The virulent strain narrative was peddled by the Irish government who went against medical advice and tried to deflect blame. The evidence doesn’t support the narrative. I think the COVID-fatigue angle is quite interesting though. As critical as I am of the government they were under a lot of pressure from the populous to provide some sort of respite.

Isn’t this last bit in some sense a good thing? Representative government changing policies to reflect a shift in the population’s preference after ten months of dealing with these restrictions?

I don't know about Ireland in particular. But my sense is Covid restrictions many places in the Western world have begun crude and unfriendly to the individual because that's what's simple, cheap and what doesn't cost businesses money (with the US the worst but not the only offender). The US still isn't requiring sick-leave, isn't requiring safe working conditions around Covid.

Basically, not considerate of people's situation until people are at the breaking point and then just opening the flood gates.

Re: I believe US could see rolling series of “Ireland events” over next 2 months

#170

I'm Irish in Ireland, I've been following the matter closely. Ireland had one of the strictest lockdowns in most of Europe since March, no pubs, nightclubs, limited restaurants, churches, limited sports, 5km travel restrictions were on and off. We masked up early and our national broadcaster was constantly warning everyone non-stop. Schools were open however. We were the poster boy for lockdown success up until at le…

Do you have opinions about 1. holding the damn until the vaccine gets deployed 2. What are your concerns if any about the long term illnesses and organ damage in younger covid afflicted patients. I agree with your points except for those two key considerations. Because of this, I am for continuing lockdowns and distancing until the vaccine and refuse to potentially subject myself to life long debilitation when waitin…

Not the OP, but 1) officials in several EU countries have recently said that restrictions will probably exist until very late 2021, because even in a best-case scenario not enough of the public will be vaccinated until then. I personally would not accept borders being closed for so long among fraternal European countries. Even more seriously, the mass events and ordinary courtship opportunities that are so important for young people coming of age, should not be put off so long. (I am most opposed to lockdowns because I think it is the biggest betrayal of young people since ’68.)

As for claims of “long COVID”, these are largely unverified and a media creation. (Clinical studies do exist, but the definition of “long-term symptoms” used among specialists is often not as dramatic as the one found in sensational newspaper coverage.) Many of the people claiming to have the condition have never even tested positive for COVID, and it can be seen as broadly the same demographic that, before this epidemic, claimed to have “chronic Lyme” in the complete absence of any evidence.

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