Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship • Hacker News Board

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#181

Post by yyyk » Sun, Jan 10, 2021, 9:03 AM UTC

yyyk wrote: post #103

dirtyid wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your article by Tanner Greer, one of the most ardent supporters of Taiwan military changed his position last year that Taiwan can repel PRC alone. Same with Ian Easton. There aren't any credible experts left there who still thinks Taiwan can stand alone, and both Greer and Easton were holdouts that were far from credible in the subject matter in first place. Regardless, I think there's too much obsession and wank ove…

CCP can win a successful invasion, but turning Taiwan into dust will backfire hugely. Starving Taiwan into submission is at best case scenario a massive hit to China's foreign and economic relations (ensuring a block analog to NATO just to counter China) in order to get an economically devastated province, with possible internal stability hit since eventually Chinese citizens will know what it cost. This isn't a good…

(I'm responding to the second edit).

I think you massively underestimate the psychological effect of seeing a first-world country reduced to a third-world country if Taiwan doesn't surrender very quickly. Also, the realist concern is classic 'balance the strongest power' dynamic.

I don't think China has to worry about an outright official blockade, but you'll end up with a Cold War rerun and Chinese companies being unofficially driven off the West, SK and Japan working together, possible SK/Japan nukes at the very least. China played a lot of cards trying to keep other countries not ganged up against it, best not ruin it to get a devastated province. Simply put, any starvation scenario where Taiwan decides to fight will be a disaster for CCP too.

So I believe any CCP strategist understands it's better to sacrifice men and take Taiwan outright without turning it to Yemen (a preference which you stated as well). A quick enough operation will be ignored by the world for reasons you provided, and they may well be in a position to do that soon. The 'wait out months/years and publicly starve out Taiwan' is incredibly poor in comparison.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#182

Post by LargoLasskhyfv » Sun, Jan 10, 2021, 9:04 AM UTC

blackrock wrote: post #139

s1artibartfast wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The US can't stop China from taking Taiwan. Can’t or won’t? Certainly the US do a lot of damage to the mainland if they chose to engage in a hot total war. A nuclear barrage of Chinese military facilities and supply lines would shut down an amphibious assault. I imagine that the US can still do tremendous damage with conventional bombing and ballistics as well, though not without cost. Both of these are basically MA…

> A nuclear barrage of Chinese military facilities Do you really want to entertain this ridiculous idea? A nuclear assault on Chinese soil, would invite a nuclear retaliation on American soil. Do you really want to lose Los Angeles or New York City, to a nuclear ICBM? And if it comes that, then both sides should just launch all their nukes, and see who is left afterwards to pick up the pieces. America is now a nuclea…

Yäss! Yäss! Mäd to ze mäx!

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#183

Post by blackrock » Sun, Jan 10, 2021, 9:27 AM UTC

jonathannat wrote: post #115

beerandt wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Carter's decision to recognize the mainland at the expense of Taiwan seems more and more like it's one of the most consequential unilateral decisions ever made (as in single person, not single nation). It's hard to know "what could have been," but what aspect of current life/ society/ the world wouldn't be significantly different today?

What could have been: If Nixon hadn't started the process, if carter hadn't recognize the communist government of China. - Offshoring/globalization may not have been the boom it is today, due to the lack of a major source of cheap/obedient labor force. In the 70s offshoring occured in Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and others SE Asia countries but they didn't have enough cheap labors to continue. American companies would…

In your fictional view, you are giving America way too much credit.

The Chinese would’ve come online, sooner or later. The WTO sped up the process of course, but China’s technological ascendancy was inevitable.

The other theory is that if China was denied entry into the WTO, then they would’ve just created their own international trading agreement. And in 2020, they did just that, and called it the RCEP.

Besides, without China, then your iPhone would’ve probably never been created. Apple would’ve never made enough money from the iPod, to justify further investment into the iPhone. China and the iPhone, really are symbiotic. Instead, we might all be living in a Blackberry world.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#184

Post by blackrock » Sun, Jan 10, 2021, 9:34 AM UTC

yyyk wrote: post #114

nabla9 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nixon deserves the praise and blame for China relations. Starting the process was really hard part. It was culmination of long process started by Nixon in 1972. Shanghai Communique pledged to work toward the full diplomatic relations. Ford and Carter followed trough the process. Taiwan really didn't matter during the Cold War. Relations with China was strategic move to help create distance between Soviet Union and Ch…

I don't think blaming Nixon is right. His action arguably made sense at the time, and didn't require sacrificing Taiwan. The US had plenty of time to safely pivot to a different position regarding China/Taiwan (e.g. letting Taiwan get nukes in the 70s-80s; Shifting diplomatic position and recognizing Taiwan right after the Cold War was over; Not allowing Globalization to go so far in the 90s-00s). If the US didn't ta…

> letting Taiwan get nukes in the 70s-80s

Giving Taiwan nukes would’ve been a casus belli situation.

This would’ve caused China to invade. Damned be the consequences or cost of lives.

The same is true today. If America arms Taiwan with too many advanced weapons, then it will also trigger a casus belli event on China’s part.

If America couldn’t beat China in North Korea in 1950, when the Chinese were literally fighting with bows and arrows, and America had air power and carpet bombing, then do you really think America can beat China in 2021? Or 2030? Or 2050?

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#185

Post by _cs2017_ » Sun, Jan 10, 2021, 9:40 AM UTC

99_00 wrote: post #159

_cs2017_ wrote: post #140

No American administration ever thought "let's placate Beijing because we are too scared of them getting angry". Every time the decision to compromise with Beijing was made based on a certain trade-off. This is no different today. The US military and civilian experts believe that if Taiwan declares independence, Beijing will use its military to take control of Taiwan, regardless of the US involvement. US presidents d…

>The US military and civilian experts believe that if Taiwan declares independence, Beijing will use its military to take control of Taiwan Taiwan considers its self to be China. What are they going to declare themselves independent from?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_independence_movement

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#186

Post by kilroy_jones » Sun, Jan 10, 2021, 10:05 AM UTC

disown wrote: post #177

__sy__ wrote: post #14

I've lived in Taiwan for a short period of time. I absolutely love it there and I encourage everyone here to go check it out. Furthermore, the Taiwanese people deserve the right to self-determination, and our support if they decide to go their own way. That being said, considering the enormously strategic role that Taiwan plays in electronics supply chains (e.g. TSMC, Wistron...etc), it's always been odd to me that t…

> I've lived in Taiwan for a short period of time. Are you the guy that keeps spamming blogs about "TSMC, chips and how taiwan is so important to the US" to HN? > Furthermore, the Taiwanese people deserve the right to self-determination Taiwan has 20 million people. Mainland china has 1.4 billion people. I believe the "self-determination" part is already settled. > and our support if they decide to go their own way.…

> Taiwan has 20 million people. Mainland china has 1.4 billion people. I believe the "self-determination" part is already settled.

What does population have to do with self determination?

> Nope. Let them settle it. We shouldn't have been involved in the first place.

Except they were allied with the US and deals were drawn up that should be honored.

> Are you serious? One is the second largest economy in the world. The other is taiwan.

He said in a strategic industry, which semiconductors are.

If there is TSMC spam it's probably because this is a tech forum and they is a lot of movement in the field in the last year, mostly related to the failings of Intel and the rise of TSMC.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#187

Post by yyyk » Sun, Jan 10, 2021, 10:14 AM UTC

blackrock wrote: post #184

yyyk wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think blaming Nixon is right. His action arguably made sense at the time, and didn't require sacrificing Taiwan. The US had plenty of time to safely pivot to a different position regarding China/Taiwan (e.g. letting Taiwan get nukes in the 70s-80s; Shifting diplomatic position and recognizing Taiwan right after the Cold War was over; Not allowing Globalization to go so far in the 90s-00s). If the US didn't ta…

> letting Taiwan get nukes in the 70s-80s Giving Taiwan nukes would’ve been a casus belli situation. This would’ve caused China to invade. Damned be the consequences or cost of lives. The same is true today. If America arms Taiwan with too many advanced weapons, then it will also trigger a casus belli event on China’s part. If America couldn’t beat China in North Korea in 1950, when the Chinese were literally fightin…

>Giving Taiwan nukes would’ve been a casus belli situation. This would’ve caused China to invade. Damned be the consequences or cost of lives.

At that time, the PLA was in a poor state. China simply did not have the ability to invade Taiwan or even get air superiority. They'd have lost, badly, so long as the US kept supporting Taiwan, quite likely the US wouldn't have had to even get involved directly. That's a consequence the CCP can't afford, they'd have had to get used to nukes. Of course, now the balance has changed and that's not practical.

E: You're assuming China always gets stronger over time. Recently that's true, but at the time China was picking itself up from the Cultural Revolution, while the US was rearming after Vietnam. US had a far bigger advantage in 1975-1985 over China than in 1950. This scenario would have also required the PLA to make an air or amphibious assault without (at the time) sufficient airplanes or boats, while 1950 was just a land assault.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#188

Post by dirtyid » Sun, Jan 10, 2021, 12:01 PM UTC

yyyk wrote: post #181

yyyk wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CCP can win a successful invasion, but turning Taiwan into dust will backfire hugely. Starving Taiwan into submission is at best case scenario a massive hit to China's foreign and economic relations (ensuring a block analog to NATO just to counter China) in order to get an economically devastated province, with possible internal stability hit since eventually Chinese citizens will know what it cost. This isn't a good…

(I'm responding to the second edit). I think you massively underestimate the psychological effect of seeing a first-world country reduced to a third-world country if Taiwan doesn't surrender very quickly. Also, the realist concern is classic 'balance the strongest power' dynamic. I don't think China has to worry about an outright official blockade, but you'll end up with a Cold War rerun and Chinese companies being u…

Long blockade Taiwan is the forceful reunion option. Blockades are inherently an act of war. It would be calibrated attacks of military power and communication infrastructure that would leave civilian realm mostly intact. No salacious photos of cratered cities, PR would play better than unavoidable PLA paratroopers + civilian "collateral damage". Meanwhile only avenue for food + aid would be provided by PRC, each landing boat potentially accompanied by occupation force + minimal destruction to incentivize capitulation, this is compatible with CCP political work. Occupation force cordons off to green zone, controls infrastructure, while local loyalist does most of the repression. On the outside Taiwan will still appear to be a first-world country. Yemen comparison is extreme end of invasion spectrum.

The reason I dismiss quick invasion is for all the reasons analyst cite why invading Taiwan would be hard. Landing operations on Taiwan scale has never been done before. It will massively outscope Normandy. I question if it's even feasible. Let alone quick. Especially with massively telescoped logistics movement that US/TW can rapidly react to. Whereas quick air superiority and naval blockade is the kind of campaign that can be disguised with annual exercises. The main reason cited for why PRC would want a quick invasion is to prevent US intervention on Taiwan proper... but US lost that option. So it's not a relevant factor. And it shows in actual Chinese military acquisitions very few additions to amphibious capabilities, massive blue water naval buildup. PRC's only concern so far seems to be circumventing US counter-blockade. There's almost no credible movement towards amphib capabilities outside of notional signalling exercises with ~100 amphib tanks total. PRC sent 900+ tanks to Russia for military exercises. I would not presume an invasion until China properly invests in amphib capabilities.

SK/Japan working together... I doubt with their history. Ditto with Japan nuclearizing against their constitution. If they did, there'd be no reason to host US bases. I don't actually think China has played a lot of cards so far, there's just a lack of coordination in the region because... everyone fucking hates each other. Japan/Korean/China hate triangle. SCS is a 6 party dispute. ASEAN has divided loyalties. There's only a vague consensus that the future is Asian, and US is useful to hedge against China, but not at the expense of sabotaging everyone's collective future. As for EU/Anglos, maybe. But at the end of the day, Taiwan is full of yellow people. 1st world countries stood by while secular, liberalizing brown countries got repressed back to poverty by US foreign intervention. My opinion is they'll stand at sidelines if China is sufficient local hegemon, especially if the realist want China to check against US. EU has their own foreign policy aspirations after all. Multipolarity means EU + China against US. Or at least EU not teaming up with US against China. EU + China has their own interest alignments. Both EU and China require maritime hydro carbon trade as existential matter. China having parity blue water navy as US to also secure trade routes is good for everyone who wants to continue to freeload. And unlike US, EU knows China has to provide this service indefinitely, and is reliable if core interests respected (like Taiwan). Ultimately, if west wants to divest from China, it's survivable. They account for 10% of Chinese GDP. If you told Xi today to take a 10% hit on GDP in exchange for Taiwan, he'd take that deal.

Of course peaceful is always preferable. It's just hard to see how that could be charted right now. My gut feeling is cracking down on HK is reset of one country two systems, 30 years is a long time to mold HK into a more enticing alternative than one country one system. I think Taiwan can get away with some sort of suzerainty option with understanding that it's only delaying the inevitable.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#189

Post by dirtyid » Sun, Jan 10, 2021, 12:18 PM UTC

throw384742 wrote: post #147

dirtyid wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I respond below why invasion is not necessary, reunification through whatever means is preferable, but ultimately Chinese goals is for Taiwan not to be a strategic liability, and for that they can glass Taiwan into Yemen indefinitely without landing a single boot on the ground if US/Taiwan relation ever threatens Chinese security. US goal is to contain China, that's extremely difficult medium/long term without war, e…

Intermarriage between Mainland Chinese and Taiwanese is extremely high. Among my Taiwanese friends, almost a third are married to Mainlanders (and even more have dated). Even if this doesn't lead to reunification, at the very least it'll maintain the status quo.

Peaceful status quo is best, I find TW friends generally sensible about cross strait relations. PRC less so. But TW nationalism / independence is good election platform, and status quo is always elections away from being disrupted. Then there's also the 2049 deadline and PRC domestic politics. Xi wants premature reunion to cement his legacy, I doubt he'll be ruling at 105 years old, hopefully he comes to his senses. That said, this was long time coming. 92 consensus facade could only work for so long. It's hard to see what the next viable framework would be.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#190

Post by fmajid » Sun, Jan 10, 2021, 2:32 PM UTC

Taiwan is the center of the world semiconductor industry and far more critical to the US than Saudi Arabia. It would also be exceedingly difficult to defend from China. There is no point in provoking China into a war we would lose (because China’s military budget has been focused on preventing that for the last 6 decades, whereas ours is scattered across too many objectives) until we have a plan that can succeed.