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Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

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Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#71

Post by [deleted] »

safog wrote: post #65
nabla9 wrote: post #52

This will get angry response from China, but that's about it. No change in big issues: 1) US does not formally recognize Taiwan (doing so means ending diplomatic relations with China). 2) US is not altering the Taiwan relations act. No alliance, no binding security guarantees, strategic ambiguity continues. 3) Taiwan is not declaring independence.

Do angry responses mean anything? It's always been the other way round - China does something messed up and the world leaders would give out angry speeches and life would go on without much change. Let them have a dose of their own medicine for a bit.

[deleted]

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#72

Post by someperson »

adventured wrote: post #69
someperson wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As mentioned elsewhere in this thread, I used to think it was inevitable that China will be able to successfully invade Taiwan, but its almost impossible to pull of an amphibious invasion. Taiwan's geography makes this particularly difficult.

China wins in every military confrontation scenario. They don't have to immediately pull off an invasion. Tomorrow they could begin a draconian blockade, while strategically bombing the island and begin an assassination & disruption campaign by inserting special forces. They can do it (rather inexpensively) on an indefinite basis, as long as they care to. Nobody can stop that and they have zero concern for the humani…

On China's (in)ability to successfully invade Taiwan, we can agree to disagree.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#74

Post by beerandt »

adventured wrote: post #50
__sy__ wrote: post #14

I've lived in Taiwan for a short period of time. I absolutely love it there and I encourage everyone here to go check it out. Furthermore, the Taiwanese people deserve the right to self-determination, and our support if they decide to go their own way. That being said, considering the enormously strategic role that Taiwan plays in electronics supply chains (e.g. TSMC, Wistron...etc), it's always been odd to me that t…

The US placates Beijing to try to delay or avoid Beijing just going ahead and invading and taking it by force (if China ultimately believes there is no other path). The US can't stop China from taking Taiwan. 20 or 30 years ago it would have been very difficult to stop that, today it's impossible. The US isn't even ready yet for that confrontation, it needs to deploy a massive number of ballistic missiles along the i…

Yeah, I'm scared of Chinese military strategy, especially social engineering and psyops, but I still see enough sloppy military execution that I remain confident in overall US superiority.

Look at how much trouble they've had building and attempting to operate an aircraft carrier. I think they finally figured out how to manufacture bearings for ballpoint pens in the last couple years. For both of these things, it's basically assumed that they stole US plans/technology/IP years/decades ago, yet still struggled/struggle to actually execute.

What's the best example of a successful, overt, non-domestic Chinese military operation, since deciding to go the totalitarian capitalism route?

Although now I'm also asking myself the same re: the US, and have sudden doubts.

As a bit of a tangent: I don't buy most of the current China conspiracy theories, but I struggle to think of what a non-traditional attack by China would look like that might be more effective than our current reality.

If nothing else, we've just supplied blueprints on how to successfully wage a future covert/non-traditional first-strike offensive.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#75

Post by repsilat »

Rapzid wrote: post #48
bigpumpkin wrote: post #4

I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?

This doesn't surprise me coming from Pompeo TBH.. I'm going to offer an alternative perspective than some; this would have happened sooner if Trump hadn't become star-struck by "President for Life" Ping. There were moves to align more closely with Taiwan early on, and Pompeo seems to have been pretty consistent on his position in regards to the CCP and certain matters; like Hong Kong and the Uyghurs..

> star-struck by

Trump sucks up to people when he thinks it might do him some good. He ignored Khashoggi's killing to keep a good relationship with MBS, he said he "fell in love" with Kim Jong-un to try to get him to stop testing nuclear missiles, and he shut up about Taiwan and Hong Kong and Xinjiang because he wanted a better trade deal. (Shutting up about them might have been an unofficial part of the dealmaking -- threats behind closed doors.)

Some of it was clearly amateurish. Trump is a shallow man, and assumes others are as susceptible to flattery as he is. He didn't get far with Putin or Kim, but he actually didn't give away much -- US policy towards them is tougher now than it was four years ago. And the stuff with Saudi Arabia has worked out very well, though it does make my stomach turn a bit.

Now, though, the Trump administration is in the "nothing to lose by doing what we want, and nothing to gain by doing things we'd rather not". So they can piss off Xi, and do something nice for Taiwan.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#76

Post by baby »

nabla9 wrote: post #52

This will get angry response from China, but that's about it. No change in big issues: 1) US does not formally recognize Taiwan (doing so means ending diplomatic relations with China). 2) US is not altering the Taiwan relations act. No alliance, no binding security guarantees, strategic ambiguity continues. 3) Taiwan is not declaring independence.

Isn’t 3) already done?

I thought this link implied 1 & 2, if not this is disappointing :(

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#77

Post by labster »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #28
dirtyid wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just Pompeo spiking options for next admin. Taiwan has about 5-10 years of strategic space left due to semiconductor dominance. Think Pompeo hopes to setup enough friction points for hotwar in the 10-15 years, when enough semi divests from Taiwan and before Chinese military fully modernizes. 15-30 years and China will be in a position to take over Taiwan with relatively little US containment options.

Hot war isn’t really an option with nukes. It’s all about trying to get your opponent to own-goal.

Hot war with nukes is always an option, just ask Gandhi. Seriously, MAD doesn’t work unless people really are nuts enough to destroy the world for ideals and friendship.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#78

Post by sudosysgen »

someperson wrote: post #58
adventured wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US placates Beijing to try to delay or avoid Beijing just going ahead and invading and taking it by force (if China ultimately believes there is no other path). The US can't stop China from taking Taiwan. 20 or 30 years ago it would have been very difficult to stop that, today it's impossible. The US isn't even ready yet for that confrontation, it needs to deploy a massive number of ballistic missiles along the i…

As mentioned elsewhere in this thread, I used to think it was inevitable that China will be able to successfully invade Taiwan, but its almost impossible to pull of an amphibious invasion. Taiwan's geography makes this particularly difficult.

Modern weapons make a successful amphibious invasion much easier. If the invading party can assert total air superiority, then the only bottleneck left is actually crossing the sea, which is not that big of an issue as long as the distance is low.

The waters of the strait are also shallow enough that submarines are not that effective.

Basically, it is certainly possible to pull of such an amphibious assault, and the US Navy's simulations recognize as much.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#79

Post by tpmx »

csomar wrote: post #34
bigpumpkin wrote: post #4

I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?

I think it's just coincidence. From what I am reading/getting from the news, is that the new administration will be just as harsh with China (but probably with less drama about it).

Japan appears to be concerned it won't.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-usa-taiwan-china-id...

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#80

Post by arcticbull »

Well I can’t say I’m mad about this. It’s not a clear unilateral win however as this is likely to make the PRC much more defensive and irritated about the ROC than it already was, and I’m not sure that America has the naval presence in the South China Sea to create a real deterrent to mainland aggression.

Hard to say this is bad; hard to say this is good either. It’s different. Ball will be in the Biden administration court. At least it was spiked before hand.

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