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Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

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Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#61

Post by nabla9 »

beerandt wrote: post #40
__sy__ wrote: post #14

I've lived in Taiwan for a short period of time. I absolutely love it there and I encourage everyone here to go check it out. Furthermore, the Taiwanese people deserve the right to self-determination, and our support if they decide to go their own way. That being said, considering the enormously strategic role that Taiwan plays in electronics supply chains (e.g. TSMC, Wistron...etc), it's always been odd to me that t…

Carter's decision to recognize the mainland at the expense of Taiwan seems more and more like it's one of the most consequential unilateral decisions ever made (as in single person, not single nation). It's hard to know "what could have been," but what aspect of current life/ society/ the world wouldn't be significantly different today?

Nixon deserves the praise and blame for China relations. Starting the process was really hard part.

It was culmination of long process started by Nixon in 1972. Shanghai Communique pledged to work toward the full diplomatic relations. Ford and Carter followed trough the process.

Taiwan really didn't matter during the Cold War. Relations with China was strategic move to help create distance between Soviet Union and China.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#62

Post by adventured »

csomar wrote: post #34
bigpumpkin wrote: post #4

I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?

I think it's just coincidence. From what I am reading/getting from the news, is that the new administration will be just as harsh with China (but probably with less drama about it).

> the new administration will be just as harsh with China (but probably with less drama about it)

They will, they have no choice. The Biden Administration isn't in charge of the China policy, that's a US Government level comprehensive strategic shift that began well before Trump. The Pentagon overall is more powerful than the US Presidency, and all the agencies that matter are on board the China confrontation approach. There are strategic policies that persist regardless of administrations, for example that was the case when the US was dealing with the USSR, and it's going to be the case when dealing with China going forward. It doesn't matter who is elected President on this policy matter, the only thing that changes are the more subtle details (and some of the drama, as you noted).

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#63

Post by repsilat »

csomar wrote: post #34
bigpumpkin wrote: post #4

I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?

I think it's just coincidence. From what I am reading/getting from the news, is that the new administration will be just as harsh with China (but probably with less drama about it).

Yeah, I think if this doesn't kick up much of a fuss the Biden administration will be glad it was done. I imagine they'll take more of a "don't rock the boat" approach, but this will leave things in a situation they're happier with.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#64

Post by UncleOxidant »

beerandt wrote: post #40
__sy__ wrote: post #14

I've lived in Taiwan for a short period of time. I absolutely love it there and I encourage everyone here to go check it out. Furthermore, the Taiwanese people deserve the right to self-determination, and our support if they decide to go their own way. That being said, considering the enormously strategic role that Taiwan plays in electronics supply chains (e.g. TSMC, Wistron...etc), it's always been odd to me that t…

Carter's decision to recognize the mainland at the expense of Taiwan seems more and more like it's one of the most consequential unilateral decisions ever made (as in single person, not single nation). It's hard to know "what could have been," but what aspect of current life/ society/ the world wouldn't be significantly different today?

Nixon was the one who started that process.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#65

Post by safog »

nabla9 wrote: post #52

This will get angry response from China, but that's about it. No change in big issues: 1) US does not formally recognize Taiwan (doing so means ending diplomatic relations with China). 2) US is not altering the Taiwan relations act. No alliance, no binding security guarantees, strategic ambiguity continues. 3) Taiwan is not declaring independence.

Do angry responses mean anything? It's always been the other way round - China does something messed up and the world leaders would give out angry speeches and life would go on without much change.

Let them have a dose of their own medicine for a bit.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#66

Post by TechnoTimeStop »

doomleika wrote: post #59
__sy__ wrote: post #14

I've lived in Taiwan for a short period of time. I absolutely love it there and I encourage everyone here to go check it out. Furthermore, the Taiwanese people deserve the right to self-determination, and our support if they decide to go their own way. That being said, considering the enormously strategic role that Taiwan plays in electronics supply chains (e.g. TSMC, Wistron...etc), it's always been odd to me that t…

It's awesome because you are a westerner.

YAY MORE CHINA POLITICS ON HACKER NEWS. GET THIS CRAP OUT OF HERE.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#67

Post by mattnewton »

jonathannat wrote: post #12

This is a great reset of the US and Taiwan relationship that will allow new rules to get added by the State Department. Best case scenario is that the two democracies grow even closer together and Taiwan finally gets a US embassy or even a military base. Worst case scenario is Biden goes back to the old behavior of placating China. In any case, this is great timing, as China suffers from internal turmoils in Hong Kon…

I’m with you until the last paragraph, which strikes me as fighting yesterday’s wars. “Hot” war with China, a major nuclear power, would be disastrous for the earth if it looked anything like controlling naval waters. I think they are far more important economically as a major technological partner than a military base.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#68

Post by caycep »

someperson wrote: post #58
adventured wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US placates Beijing to try to delay or avoid Beijing just going ahead and invading and taking it by force (if China ultimately believes there is no other path). The US can't stop China from taking Taiwan. 20 or 30 years ago it would have been very difficult to stop that, today it's impossible. The US isn't even ready yet for that confrontation, it needs to deploy a massive number of ballistic missiles along the i…

As mentioned elsewhere in this thread, I used to think it was inevitable that China will be able to successfully invade Taiwan, but its almost impossible to pull of an amphibious invasion. Taiwan's geography makes this particularly difficult.

This. I think if China wanted to go all out, it could take Taiwan via massive force but it would be extremely costly for them and I don’t think the calculus of risk vs benefit adds up for them politically or practically. They certainly can maybe sink an American carrier, maybe, if their missiles are as good as they say, but that’s a big If.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#69

Post by adventured »

someperson wrote: post #58
adventured wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US placates Beijing to try to delay or avoid Beijing just going ahead and invading and taking it by force (if China ultimately believes there is no other path). The US can't stop China from taking Taiwan. 20 or 30 years ago it would have been very difficult to stop that, today it's impossible. The US isn't even ready yet for that confrontation, it needs to deploy a massive number of ballistic missiles along the i…

As mentioned elsewhere in this thread, I used to think it was inevitable that China will be able to successfully invade Taiwan, but its almost impossible to pull of an amphibious invasion. Taiwan's geography makes this particularly difficult.

China wins in every military confrontation scenario.

They don't have to immediately pull off an invasion. Tomorrow they could begin a draconian blockade, while strategically bombing the island and begin an assassination & disruption campaign by inserting special forces. They can do it (rather inexpensively) on an indefinite basis, as long as they care to. Nobody can stop that and they have zero concern for the humanitarian disaster it would cause, with their eye on the long-term goal. Taiwan wouldn't last very long in that simple and very obvious scenario, it would rapidly degrade their condition. The world (those standing opposed to China's move) would quickly capitulate, understanding full well that the alternative is all out war with China; the UN would be begging for a settlement peace within weeks (which would result in China de facto taking over Taiwan). Mostly all that would happen to China are some sanctions, which China would shrug off (along with some dramatic, harshly worded PR releases). At the end of it, China won't need to invade with a large amphibious assault, it'll enter Taiwan largely unopposed as part of the brokered peace settlement.

China is very rapidly building up its naval capabilities. It will be able to invade Taiwan this decade. That isn't a maybe, it's a certainty.

Re: Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

#70

Post by someperson »

throwitaway1235 wrote: post #35

My first reply was flagged. My question, is it okay for user to say that they strategically support China more than Taiwan and would hope U.S policy eventually follow suit?

You can say and think what you want. But there's no situation where the United States stops supporting democratic Taiwan. The US supported Taiwan under-the-table since the 1970s which was well before democratization back when they were yet another brutal authoritarian ally of the United States (eg, Saudi Arabia etc).

Now Taiwan is a vibrant democracy with the rule-of-law, free speech and world-leading industries the United States will stay allied to Taiwan. As they say: "In international relations, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests".

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