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Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

reuters.com

601–610 of 699 posts

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#601

Would Apple be required to make their car parts interchangeable with the generic aftermarket brands and car service centers? IIRC there is a law specifically for car manufacturing. I can imagine a dystopian future with custom non-standard parts, specialist repair centers, restrictions on what you can do with it, Apple being able to track everywhere we go, what we listen to, who is with us, and establishing a network…

I can't even begin to imagine how a walled garden for a car would look like. Perhaps there are examples from already existing car manufacturers.

John Deere?

I mean, a lot of the recent right-to-repair controversy in the US has been centered around farmers, and their ongoing battles against machine producers / makers like John Deere.

The gist is that you can't do jack sh!t on a modern John Deere, because all the software involved to diagnose/modify/operate their machines are strictly proprietary, and only available to the company, or authorized dealers and repair shops.

Here's how this could work with personal cars:

Let's say you purchase a Apple Car, and after a month the low washer fluid message starts flashing. Not only does it flash, but every 10 minutes or so it interferes with your whole media system, with some voice stating that you need to fill up on washer fluid.

Turns out your washer fluid level is actually OK, seems to be some sensor error, or bug in the software.

Problem is - you can't touch the car, mechanically or the software. Any modifications will essentially brick the car.

Only way to get this error fixed, is to bring the car to some Apple repair shop, where a tech will fix the problem in 30 seconds, and bill you $1000 for the work.

Other than the bricking part, that's the kind of stuff farmers are experiencing with quite expensive machines.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#602

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure an EV is still that much more complex in terms of part count from a phone ? An ICE I would agree.

How many windows are on an iPhone? Window motors? Window motor switches? Door panels to hold the window motor switches? Mechanical guides for the windows? The little weather striping to keep rain out from inside the doors? How many doors are there on an iPhone? Door latches? Door locks? Door handles? Door close sensors? Weather stripping to keep the rain out from inside the cabin? The little sticker inside the door l…

How many components on a car are engineered at a 5 nanometer level? Your comment is going to age like milk...

For a company like Apple, making a car is child's play.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#603

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can assure you that only in the instrument cluster and the central console area you have the same amount of complexity as in a smartphone. Now add the rest of the car.

> I can assure you that only in the instrument cluster and the central console area you have the same amount of complexity as in a smartphone. Now add the rest of the car. Not only that but the regulatory standards of EV in US/EU/Asia varies so widely that I don't see how they can get a product to Market in less than 5-10 years unless they're just making EV clones of what is already out here or partner with a Manufac…

This is such a clueless comment. Tesla, a start-up with zero experience in cars managed to make cars without any issue at all and become one of the most popular luxury car makers in the world.

So Apple, the world's most valuable company, isn't going to be able to make their own car? You're dreaming.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#604

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> iPhones definitely have lights. I am sorry, are you trolling? Are you seriously comparing smash test on a phone with regulatory crash test on a car? Have you thought about this at all? Do iPhones have crumple zones designed in? Do they asses performance of the chassis after 30 years of corrosion? Do they operate in 50 degree Dubai or -30 Siberia? Do they travel at 100 m/h? How many Gs does an SSD (~100) survive as…

I could just as easily ask you whether cars have to engineer at the scale of 5 nanometers. Or whether cars have to support thousands of third party engineers adding arbitrary add-on components. Or whether automakers worry about hardening their security against nation state actors. I'm sorry, but do you honestly believe that automobiles are more complex from an engineering standpoint than microelectronics? How could y…

Tesla designs its own chips, they don't use 5 nanometers but they are working on 7 nanometers. You need to have very good microelectronics to build a modern car.

Yes, car makers have to worry about hardening against nation states. Probably don't do it as well yet however.

However I agree that Apple could go into that direction.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#605
post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Net present value of future projected earnings, adjusted for risk . That last part seems to be missing. Likely because the smart money knows that retail investors + indices = momentum trading on sectors. As there's no ability for anyone to call BS in the way they used to be able to. Or to put it another way: if I'm Toyota, I have a demonstrated ability to build cars profitably. If I'm someone who says I can build as…

If you are Toyota, you've only demonstrated you could build cars profitably for the consumer market you were already in. If consumer preferences, trends, etc have changed, and no product is yet available to fulfill those new preferences, there is actually risk that what you are good at building profitably isn't what people want anymore. There is risk in that too.

There is. But are you saying that:

"the risk that Toyota, with demonstrated volume manufacturing prowess, is unable to pivot into a new class of vehicles"

is greater than

"the risk that a new manufacturer, with no track record of volume automotive manufacturing, can create a product and manufacture it in volume"?

That was my original contention and where I feel the market is mispricing risk.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#606
post #6

The Tesla Model 3 already embodies the minimalism, software focus, and vertical integration that have driven Apple's success in the phone market. Right down to the custom SoC and capacitive touchscreen in lieu of buttons. I'm really curious what Apple's differentiators will be. Also, 2024 still seems aggressive to deploy self-driving for real.

Having recently sold my Tesla Model 3 I can say there is a lot to be desired with that car. The biggest lesson from Tesla is that cars are not cellphones. Having one display off to the side, without buttons, that does everything is an awful experience in a car. I hope that Apple learns that lesson. I think if they had gone first they might have made that mistake too, but now that it's been tried they can find interes…

> The moat that Waymo has built with their particular kind of testing and iteration is diametrically opposed to how companies like Tesla, Lyft, Uber etc have tried to do self-driving. Even they are going to be restricted to the easiest of locals for years.

Nobody has figured it out out yet, and a 'moat' for a market that is basically impossible to a big money-maker is not a 'moat' at all.

The quest for self driving is not the same as the quest for the first commercial deployment. Solving general self-driving is the real quest.

And I don't trust any experts to predict this correctly, as nobody knows yet what the solution actually is. Some experts say one thing, others say other things.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#607
post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Car manufacturers manage a ton of different outsourced suppliers. Yet still, they manufacture cars on their own.

not all of them... many do outsource lower volume cars (usually luxury) to third parties. "Magna currently holds contracts to produce vehicles for BMW, Daimler, Jaguar Land Rover and Toyota."

But is there any car manufacturer that fully outsourced manufacturing? It seems that owning factory is important to design cars.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#608
post #605

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are Toyota, you've only demonstrated you could build cars profitably for the consumer market you were already in. If consumer preferences, trends, etc have changed, and no product is yet available to fulfill those new preferences, there is actually risk that what you are good at building profitably isn't what people want anymore. There is risk in that too.

There is. But are you saying that: "the risk that Toyota, with demonstrated volume manufacturing prowess, is unable to pivot into a new class of vehicles" is greater than "the risk that a new manufacturer, with no track record of volume automotive manufacturing, can create a product and manufacture it in volume"? That was my original contention and where I feel the market is mispricing risk.

Yes. Because there is theory and case studies to back how often a company like Toyota will fail to pivot

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#609
post #574

This is starting to make increasingly more sense even though Apple making a car seemed laughable a few years ago. Apple is fundamentally now a company that can move immense amounts of capital into new industries with the underlying ethos of user experience. Apple Card was perhaps a dipping of the toes moment. In theory, Tesla shouldn't be worth what it is because the tech behind it is increasingly getting commoditize…

Different take here. I think they should stick to the computer/operating system of a car and either take a large stake in an existing automaker or license the technology to several of them. Actually _making_ cars is doomed to be a failure. You need a massive workforce and very large factories. It is fairly low margin compared to even computer hardware let alone software. Then they have to support these cars which mea…

It's hard to imagine that Apple can take huge amount of profit from B2B parts business. What about to sell e-bike rather than car?

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#610

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are Toyota, you've only demonstrated you could build cars profitably for the consumer market you were already in. If consumer preferences, trends, etc have changed, and no product is yet available to fulfill those new preferences, there is actually risk that what you are good at building profitably isn't what people want anymore. There is risk in that too.

Well to nitpick a little, in the case of Toyota at least, and given the success of the Prius, it seem Toyota has proven they can identify and succeed in (or even create) new consumer markets.

Thats true. Gotta give them credit. This could be a good proof point for derisking the Toyota case. However, Apple is pretty secretive and they often surprise us. There is a lot of design space deviation possible in a complex product like a car. Until we know what that product delta is, we cant really assess Toyota’s ability to pivot quickly enough. Apple wouldnt invest if the delta on what they can offer is small. So should be interesting.
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