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Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

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Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#471

Post by Raidion »

dpoochieni wrote: post #305
CountSessine wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe? But as things are, most of those generous employee salaries are parasitized by NIMBY landlords and property owners in SFBA who have selfishly engineered SF's horrendous housing supply shortage. If that value is going to be captured by anyone, I would much MUCH rather it be captured by Google shareholders, many of whom are employees and are at least partly responsible for the company's incredible success, than…

Not maybe, it is supply and demand. IF the supply of remote labor does increase then the share of economic profit going to capital also increases. (i.e. Employers keep more of the profits as opposed to sharing)

This is true both ways though. If you're getting paid 140k, but your rent is 5k a month, you're only capturing 80k of wages, and the landlords are capturing 60k in rent.

If you're working remotely for 100k, and paying 1.7k a month in rent, you're capturing ~80k as well. That means more capital is going to the employers(who saves 40k) at the expense of the landlords (who lose out on that 40k).

I honestly think I'd rather have the capital go to the employers because a) it improves my value in relation to them (I now can argue that I should get paid more, because I bring in 40k a year more value than I did in SV) AND I have a financial interest in the company doing well (with options/RSUs/bonuses/etc).

The money going to the landlords starts to become very literally "rent seeking" where they will capture the capital without providing any productivity gains in return. You could argue that their value in "provide a location for people to live so they can collaborate more effectively" is decreasing with remote work, and they will have to charge less because the value they provide is decreasing.

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#472

Post by ummonk »

camjohnson26 wrote: post #215
nitrogen wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An influx of coastal refugees has driven real estate up and out of reach of many locals where I'm from. Those are the types of places that are "full", even with loads of building.

You can buy a home cheap in Detroit, that’s not a good thing. Wouldn’t rising home values signal economic growth? As long as there’s room to expand I don’t see the problem. SF’s issue isn’t high prices, it’s archaic zoning laws that limit supply to keep prices high for home owners.

I think there are two issues here. First, housing is somewhat inelastic in that it takes multiple years to respond to a rise in demand and plan out and build new housing even with a reasonably fast permitting / approval process. Second, due to labor and materials costs, the price of housing in many areas is far below the cost to build new housing so housing prices will necessarily go up even with maximum build rates. This can create affordability difficulties for the lower rungs of income.

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#473

Post by d1zzy »

godot wrote: post #199
bradlys wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> real summers/not chilly I mean, it's not cold once you get outside of SF/San Bruno. If you're in the peninsula or south bay, it's really fucking hot during the summer. Uncomfortably hot because no one has AC and many of the homes don't have insulation still.

I think you built my case for me. Sac is consistently hot (90s every day for at least 4 months in the summer) and so, basically every house has AC. Many have solar panels (mine does) because of the available sunny days, for sustainability. It makes for a way easier summer than in bay where you get 2 weeks of dreadful summer (because no AC) and then the week after that is in the 60s-70s and you bring out the jackets a…

If this year's summer becomes the norm I think it may be a bit too hot for places like Sacramento. And all the places I lived in SV so far have had A/C so that hasn't been an issue. But what's great about being near the bay is that at night, most summer nights, it still cools down way below 20C so it's easy to simply keep doors/windows open after sunset and close them in the morning to have cool air inside the house, without an A/C, almost every day. There are exceptions of course like we had this summer where there were 2-3 days long heatwaves with no drop below 25C at night, A/C helped with that.

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#474

Post by pmalynin »

abeppu wrote: post #373
standardUser wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just SF, it's the region and it's inability/refusal to act like a cohesive region. But SF has certainly suffered the most.

5 Bay Area counties coordinated in going into lockdown earlier than the state required. Sometimes we do act like a region.

Yea....except for how many decades have we struggled to build Bart into Menlo Park and south?

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#475

Post by corytheboyd »

carapace wrote: post #448
corytheboyd wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s in part old money lobbying to keep their properties out of the shade. Not even joking, I think it’s really that petty. There is a huge negative NIMBY force in this city

There's some of that, but you gotta wonder why the Outer Sunset isn't coated in luxury condos? I think it's just that SF is very young, as cities go, and it's been the oddball city, you didn't move here in the past for a good job, you came here because you were weird, or queer, and wanted a place to fit in and be welcomed. All these normal folks with great jobs moving here is very new, 20-25 years at most.

Oh yeah I don’t meant to put finality behind my statement, it’s just one piece of the puzzle that I have put together during my brief time here. I’ve had fun conversations with people that have lived around here for many decades, including my own grandparents who have lived here for even longer. It’s a city that has changed a lot, and meant many different things to many different people.

You hear fun stories from all kinds of characters hanging around dive bars here :) I had some good years hanging out at Lucky 13 and making tons of friends, but alas they are going out of business (for reals) now too :/

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#476

Post by vmception »

corytheboyd wrote: post #343
vmception wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You see the irony right? I'm only mocking the gatekeeping done in SF but they'd say you would have no claim to "watching SF die" if you moved there in the last ten years, because you killed it. Rents have only dropped to levels seen in the last few years lol, and will just "crater" to 2010 levels once tech and students finish leaving.

“Tech killed SF” is such a tired scapegoat. I also didn’t even work in tech when I first moved here, does that unfairly change your perception of my “killing SF”? Without the tech angle, arguments like this to me are reduced to the weight of “KIDS THESE DAYS DON’T GET IT AND RUIN EVERYTHING THAT I USED TO LIKE”

I don't care I'm mocking the entire sentiment. Every single thing I've ever heard about how "SF used to be" sounds even more unappealing than what it is today.

"Oh wow all the currently nice neighborhoods were sketchy ghettos? How quaint!"

but at least artists could live there!

As soon as you leave SF you will realize how weak and absurd the various generation's arguments about SF are.

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#477

Post by sneeze-slayer »

jaredtn wrote: post #330
standardUser wrote: post #274

The tech industry has beaten the Bay Area to within inches of its life. The pandemic may have saved it. Political mismanagement probably deserves most of the blame, because how else do you explain a historically significant economic boom reducing the quality of life for a highly developed region? I tried for many years to view the tech boom optimistically, but I as wrong.

You said it youself: political mismanagement. Make it illegal to build apartment buildings, make it impossible to build good public transit. Ban plastic straws. Refuse to prosecute criminals. Close the safe outdoor parks. Force public servants to pay into a bloated pension system. That's how you reduce the quality of life.

Yes, if only we had our plastic straws, then all the problems in the area would magically disappear.

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#478

Post by shoguning »

ericmay wrote: post #129
sandworm101 wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> and still come out ahead financially. Ya. Earning a SF wage but living elsewhere is great. But there is a flip side to this coin. As employees realize they can work from home, employers also realize they can have employees work from home. They will soon realize they don't need to pay SF wages. Those who convert their in-office jobs into work-from-home are a covid oddity. Those who will be hired in the future on th…

I agree, mostly. The bottom is still decently high even in Midwest cities. But if you’re making $140,000 + RSU/Bonus/Etc., someone from somewhere else will do that job remotely for $100,000 easy. But I would characterize this as a wealth distribution, and overall net positive for the country. People who don’t have the opportunities to work at the top companies in the Bay Area or NYC or Boston now have better access.…

> The bottom is still decently high even in Midwest cities

Yes, and I also see the push for remote work also affecting the demand side of the software labor market as well as the supply. There will be even more push for good collaboration/communication work process software. It's still a fast growing market.

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#479

Post by foxtr0t »

dcolkitt wrote: post #467
munaf wrote: post #40

It's notable that a lot of people are moving, but I'd wait until at least early 2022 to make judgements about lasting impacts on SV. WFH might not stick widely, and some firms will pick a hybrid model (i.e. partial WFH) over going fully remote. Not to mention that few places can match all the benefits of SV, i.e. unenforceable non-competes, fantastic weather and surroundings, an educated and diverse population, cultu…

> Not to mention that few places can match all the benefits of SV The counterpoint would be how many billionaires, besides those in the tech industry, choose to put down roots in the Bay Area? Not many at all. (The only real exceptions I can think of are Napa/Sonoma/Marin, not SV/SF proper.) We're talking about a class of people who are truly unconstrained in terms of location, so that should be pretty indicative of…

People with means tend to locate in tax havens, not places that have good amenities. Presumably with sufficient resources, you can produce any sort of amenity you'd like.

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#480

Post by boringg »

grillvogel wrote: post #374
bigyikes wrote: post #13

As it happens, tomorrow I’m putting in my 30-day notice to terminate my lease and leave the Bay. (And I’m paying 2 additional months rent in fees to do so) Not being tied to the office fundamentally changes the calculus of choosing where to live. There just aren’t good reasons to live here anymore for so many of us. Even if you enjoy the area, chances are you can get a better deal by moving just a bit further away. A…

what happens if everyone goes back to the office in a year and now you're the only remote employee?

This is indeed what will likely happen given how many people actually don't love working full time remote. So all these media stories will swing the other way afterwards. Also way easier to cut people when you don't have to see them in the office every day.
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