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Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

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Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#481
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In theory, naval propulsion is more amenable to electrification than aviation, but that'll be tricky to do economically Unless batteries get a lot lighter, ships are more likely to be powered by liquid hydrogen or ammonia, which are relatively straightforward to produce from renewable energy.

If there is one transport that doesn't care about weight, it's ships. The real problem is cost.

There's two sides to it. For peak loads and shorter routes measured in minutes or hours with easy charging possibilities batteries have been coming for 5-7 years now. The issue is charging since no regen is possible except load smoothing due to operating current engines at a higher thermal efficiency. It's an industry that only looks at cost and barely makes money, efficiency and low-cost workers has been the name of the game for decades.

The hard thing is the sustained loads over weeks. It's not like a car where it gets rolling and then keeps rolling with some air resistance, you need to constantly force yourself through the water, even though it is efficient on a per ton basis.

Consumption on larger vessels can be 150-300 tons per day, say 40 MJ/kg of energy content. Say you only need 50% due to earlier thermal efficiency losses. For a 3 week range from China to the US west coast you still need 30 GWh, or 300 000 Tesla 100 kWh batteries. Which is actually quite similar to the battery capacity of all Teslas delivered in a year. Using 246 Wh/kg we get that the ship needs about 120 000 tons of batteries. A 400m container ship has 140 000 tons of usable capacity, i.e. just the steel excluding all cargo and provision, so it really doesn't add up yet. Need a magnitude improvement before it can start making sense, and this is a calculation without even margins or considering for example China to US East Coast.

It's just incredible how energy dense fossil fuels are. Shipping and aviation will probably end up as the last industries to go green, because they actually use the energy density.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#482

I hate the argument that we’re just waiting for batteries now. I think if we had variable pricing that matched the availability of renewables, consumers would shift quickly. Say something like power costs .02/kWh while the sun is shining and .30 when it’s not. I’d charge my car at work. I’d put a timer on my dryer to turn on at 10am. They probably come out with a hot water heater that goes really hot during the day a…

In certain parts of the US with retail choice this is already a reality, check out Griddy[0] in Texas. They'll give you wholesale electricity prices which is all sweet and dandy until there's a shortage of supply (generally on the hottest days of the summer) and the price shoots up to $9000 per MWh. Honestly it's a great deal if you're willing to accept the risk associated with it (or work from home and can quickly r…

In the UK, Octopus Energy[0] have a tariff like this. They have a 35p / kWh price cap to limit that risk. With the average price of electricity around 15p / kWh here, it means the risk isn't too great as long as the shortages don't go on too long.

[0] https://octopus.energy/agile/

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#483

The Germans paid for it creating the market/industry. Vast amounts. Then the Chinese thought it looked like a good industry to be in and threw unbelievable money at developing manufacturing capacity. If the Germans keep voting green and being parsimonious savers then we may yet get cheap batteries and survive.

That’s rather inaccurate. German electricity prices are so high because renewables need backup power plants and German law mandates that these plants (mostly coal and gas) are not allowed to operate unless wind and solar are unable to provide sufficient electricity. Also, Germany‘s energy sector still accounts to 350 million tons CO2 emissions annually while France only accounts for 50 million tons CO2 p.a. That’s th…

Germany spent a lot of money on renewables and they still ended up as one of the countries with the highest levels of CO2 in Europe. That said, it's not for nothing because while this is was a combination of a lot of mistakes, everyone else gets to learn from these mistakes. Other countries could simply cut emissions by replacing coal with gas, cheaply. Now they can switch to renewables at a much better price too since they've waited while Germany did a lot of the learning the hard way.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#484
post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, not just countries but whole industries/sectors are going to collapse. It's not like we're going to retrain an oil driller to be software engineer. Yes, the ecological benefits shine. But we need to prepare for the sociopolitical and socioeconomic fallout. Given how prepared we've (not) been for addressing climate change, it's difficult to imagine we'll be prepared for the unintended consequences of renewables.…

> It's not like we're going to retrain an oil driller to be software engineer. Why not? Equipment at that scale is complicated, and requires a lot of skill and experience to operate. Not to mention responsibility. When you screw up, people die. Very likely including you.

You're discounting a key variable in the equation: You can't teach people who are not motivated to learn; who don't have enough desire to learn; who literally can't afford a "life changing" transition.

Given the pay rate of oil workers, few are going to plan ahead and switch careers to something paying less. Keep in mind, that new pay drops further as the supply (of devs) increases.

In theory, I agree with you. However, the reality is inertia is a key force in life. My life. Your life. All our lives. And a magic wand - Poof! You're a software developer - has little proof of effectiveness to date under such circumstances. Yes, some success stories, but none the less limited. More software bootcamps are the answer? I'd like to see evidence of that.

We're not going to solve real problems with fantasy based on disconnected from reality. If we could this conversation would not be necessary.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#485

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope so, but then I look around at all the less developed countries out there and all I see is a massive demand for oil. :/

As per the article, renewables will be significantly cheaper than oil. Why would a poor country not purchase the cheaper option?

You tell me why poor countries wouldn’t invest in solar, wind, hydro, or geothermal. (Hint: you have to build the infrastructure first, and not all of these are even practical everywhere.) Hydrogen isn’t all that practical as a fuel, and biomass just puts CO2 back into the atmosphere.

Can you think of a renewable source of energy that’s both attractive to poor and developing countries, and also practical?

Oil is easy. You put it in a tank, then pump it through an atomizer, and set it on fire. You can transport it easily, it works anywhere, and you can run a car on it. I know, electric cars are a thing, but not in the places I’m talking about here.

Electrical transmission across long distances, and, especially between different countries with different power grids is a nightmare.

What am I missing here?

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#486
I don't think we can assume costs will keeping coming down in a kind of linear fashion. To get to 50% renewable energy it probably will and I think this will happen by itself because there's a clear financial benefit to it. For the other 50% this may be difficult, but this is where carbon taxes probably will have to fill the gap, but this could also mean things like biofuels and carbon capture and a whole bunch of unconventional things we haven't even dreamed of yet will be cost competitive to further expansion of renewables.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#487
post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Growth isn't necessary to make something a good investment. Imagine you are investing in a single mortgage: you get a little income each month, and after 30 years it stops completely. Essentially the value goes to zero! But the stream of income is what you care about. Aramco is similar; it will kick off income every year in dividends and eventually be worth zero.

It’s the opposite of growth. Would you buy a house if you knew it wouldn’t be there in 20 years?

I agree.

But in the UK people routinely buy houses/apartments on leasehold which means you only "own" it for e.g. 99 years (sometimes less). Crazy if you ask me, "normal" if you ask them.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#488

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

Wood didn't give way to coal that gave way to oil. This is a terrible fallacy (albeit very commmon, even Vaclav Smil fell into it in his "Oil" book). The world currently consumes more coal than it ever did. Wood consumption is also record high. We simply stacked up energy sources. Check this page: https://ourworldindata.org/energy

So far, fossil fuels still represent about 85% of our energy consumption, and about 99% for transportation.

We had a world 100% on renewable, back in the 18th century, but we were 600 millions and lived 35 years. OTOH we have no credible way to replace 85% of our energy by renewables in the next 10 years (if we want to keep climate change at reasonable levels).

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#489
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Big disasters too happen with fossils and hydro.

Hydro plant failures have ocurred, and are far and away the most lethal energy-related accidents to date, true. The worst power plant accident of time, not a nuclear power plant failure, but a hydro station in China, Banqiao Dam. It's instructive several ways. Any number of fairly simple methods would have hugely alleviated the impact of the disaster. Much as with major nuclear disasters, it was a cascade of failures…

I thought you try to adhere to facts, till I got to "the land is a glowing radioactive mess" thing. If you say so, please too mention the land which is poisonous carcinogenic mess because of coal sludge leaks, tar sand mining and fracking byproducts, heavy metals and pesticides which tend to concentrate in hydropower reservoirs, etc.etc. And some of these actually have longer half-life than nuclear leaks.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#490

You know what's amazing? Farmers in rural Pakistan choosing to prefer solar to irrigate their crops (panels + VFD/inverter + 10 HP 3-phase motor): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfNgF0WTeCM Or grinding wheat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_G2evJOiU9I The comments in these video are all about how much does it cost, what is your contact number, etc. Clearly this is a sea-change. Also amazing that they all have cell…

I'll admit to not knowing anything about Pakistan, let alone rural Pakistan, but do they have a national power grid there? At least with solar, you own and control the power production yourself, and (in theory) there's no hidden costs. Meanwhile, I live in a country where on the one side they're pushing for and subsidizing solar energy, but at the same side they're forcing people to change their meters so that the en…

I think it's fair to assume the price of the energy you buy not only account for the price at generation, but also for all the services a grid provides: transport, reliability, variability of load etc.

When it's bought back from you, they only pay for the generation part which makes sense in my opinion. Now where that price point is, I don't know! (25%? 50%? no idea)

It seems the smart meter issue is almost unrelated though. Where I am (UK, potentially where you are too as it looks like a similar issue), the old feed-in tariff subsidised the energy _generated_ by a system, regardless of if you used the energy yourself or exported the energy. That's great to kick-start an economy but doesn't scale at a national level.

I understand they are trying to push to pay for what is exported by houses only. I'm a bit sad to see the old subvention gone as it made solar panel uneconomical in lots of situations, and there's a lot to say about timing, but in principle I think it's sound reasoning.

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