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Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

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Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#251

Post by stevenleeg »

mrfusion wrote: post #179

I hate the argument that we’re just waiting for batteries now. I think if we had variable pricing that matched the availability of renewables, consumers would shift quickly. Say something like power costs .02/kWh while the sun is shining and .30 when it’s not. I’d charge my car at work. I’d put a timer on my dryer to turn on at 10am. They probably come out with a hot water heater that goes really hot during the day a…

In certain parts of the US with retail choice this is already a reality, check out Griddy[0] in Texas. They'll give you wholesale electricity prices which is all sweet and dandy until there's a shortage of supply (generally on the hottest days of the summer) and the price shoots up to $9000 per MWh. Honestly it's a great deal if you're willing to accept the risk associated with it (or work from home and can quickly race to your circuit breaker and shut off the power when the price spikes).

[0] https://www.griddy.com

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#252

Post by m463 »

mrfusion wrote: post #179

I hate the argument that we’re just waiting for batteries now. I think if we had variable pricing that matched the availability of renewables, consumers would shift quickly. Say something like power costs .02/kWh while the sun is shining and .30 when it’s not. I’d charge my car at work. I’d put a timer on my dryer to turn on at 10am. They probably come out with a hot water heater that goes really hot during the day a…

Some states have this. I remember a friend in new york had a timer on his electric water heater to heat it at night when power was cheap.

But you are right - market forces are extremely powerful in their ability to optimize things.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#253

Post by schwartzworld »

sbelskie wrote: post #219
schwartzworld wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What do you suppose happens when, for example, Saudi Arabia can no longer feed itself? It just peacefully and gently starves to death? Won't somebody think of the poor Saudi family?!

There are, in case you didn’t know, other people in that country.

Yes, I'm aware the Saudi family has a whole population to serve them.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#254

Post by bausano_michael »

jhallenworld wrote: post #239
bausano_michael wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That reminds me of an article linked few months back about opium farming: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53450688

A good cash crop unfortunately... To complete the picture, here is how you can drill the well in the first place: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nn7twImE2ug

Thank you for the link. Satistying to watch tradition meet modernish equipment. Would you know how long does a tube well like this yield water? Do the farmers regularly deepen the drill or just find a new location?

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#255

Post by sangnoir »

Trisell wrote: post #207
munk-a wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just to preempt the other obvious reply (Okay - so that's good for the House of Saud but what about the rest of the country?). If they're wise and invest that money into education they could just convert their current rather highly skilled resource economy into an economy focused on service, finances or defense.

The issue is that most Saudis don’t work. Most of the work done in that country is done by “lower classes” of non Saudis. So when the tap dries up and they all have to work. What do they do?

> What do they do?

Realistically - they'll get deported to their home countries. There's no government on earth that will tolerate a non-citizen, non-refugee as a public charge with no prospect of being productive in the future. Foreigners are politically convenient scape-goats for all that is wrong with {ECONOMY|JOBS|CRIME|SERVICE DELIVERY}, and politicians will politic.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#256

Post by m463 »

ineedasername wrote: post #249
mrfusion wrote: post #179

I hate the argument that we’re just waiting for batteries now. I think if we had variable pricing that matched the availability of renewables, consumers would shift quickly. Say something like power costs .02/kWh while the sun is shining and .30 when it’s not. I’d charge my car at work. I’d put a timer on my dryer to turn on at 10am. They probably come out with a hot water heater that goes really hot during the day a…

I think the best thing we could do if we went to pricing like that is to have a meter next to your thermostat that tells you have much you're paying for electricity right now . That would make the mental equation much less abstract and immediate, further push people towards the behaviors you mention. But on those specifics: 1) Unfortunately most workplaces don't have a place to charge your car. That should change 2)…

> 1) Unfortunately most workplaces don't have a place to charge your car. That should change

I think this correlates with EV sales. In the places that have lots of EVs you will find employers that have chargers.

Elon Musk said it in one of his presentations, something like "we sell cars whereever we put in superchargers".

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#257

Post by markdown »

stevenleeg wrote: post #251
mrfusion wrote: post #179

I hate the argument that we’re just waiting for batteries now. I think if we had variable pricing that matched the availability of renewables, consumers would shift quickly. Say something like power costs .02/kWh while the sun is shining and .30 when it’s not. I’d charge my car at work. I’d put a timer on my dryer to turn on at 10am. They probably come out with a hot water heater that goes really hot during the day a…

In certain parts of the US with retail choice this is already a reality, check out Griddy[0] in Texas. They'll give you wholesale electricity prices which is all sweet and dandy until there's a shortage of supply (generally on the hottest days of the summer) and the price shoots up to $9000 per MWh. Honestly it's a great deal if you're willing to accept the risk associated with it (or work from home and can quickly r…

Sounds like something easily automated. If the electricity price goes above x, cut off power to a, b, c, leaving on d.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#258

Post by xbmcuser »

sbeller wrote: post #222
nordsieck wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It means that countries which rely on fossil fuels for their economy, are going to see the same kind of crushing economic decline that, say, the UK coal industry has. > What do you suppose happens when, for example, Saudi Arabia can no longer feed itself? It just peacefully and gently starves to death? First, I think you have to segregate between different kinds of fossil fuels. Coal is the worst. From what I under…

> In theory, naval propulsion is more amenable to electrification than aviation, but that'll be tricky to do economically; that is another area that petroleum could have a long useful life in. Over the last couple years / decades, ships went slower and slower on average as to save fuel (fuel became more expensive as well as environmental regulation on how much a ship may emit, which correlates to fuel intake). So som…

I think as battery technology keeps getting better. Building batteries in the shape of 40 foot or 20 foot shipping containers would be the way to go. Container ships can then replace battery containers on every port call just like they do the shipping containers. As worldwide we already have networks for the movement and storage of these containers the cost of implementing this system would not be very high apart from the charging stations for the containers but that would be another source for revenue for the ports.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#259

Post by wp381640 »

adamredwoods wrote: post #204
rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

For reference, list of large power plants and their output: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_power_stations The largest solar plant is at about 2000 MW and requires a lot of land. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhadla_Solar_Park The largest wind farm is not being used as efficiently as it could: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gansu_Wind_Farm

The largest power stations at the moment are always going to be stored hydro - they take up a lot of land. Those large coal burners also take up a lot of land when you consider the mines, transport infra, tailings dams, coal piles not to mention the clean air they "take up"

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#260

Post by mb7733 »

photojosh wrote: post #237
mb7733 wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't landlords have the same incentive? By lowering the cost of utilities for their rental property they can increase the share of rent they keep as profit (in the case that utilities are included in rent) or charge more rent, based on the fact that the property is more desirable with the cheaper utilities / better environmental footprint. Renewables are nothing new here. The same incentives encourage landlords t…

In Australia, the renter almost always pays the power bill (excepting share houses, usually students). It's hard to market "you'll spend less on power so that's why the rent is higher".

Of course it's not the headline on the rental ad, but that is a factor in what makes a rental property desirable. If you're not taking average utility bills into account when looking for a rental, you should be.

Maybe this is more relevant in cold climates. As a student I once rented an old house where the heating oil bill would surpass the rent in the winter. I won't make that mistake again, even if the rent on the house is cheap.

A self sufficient unit with 0 power bill would be pretty attractive to me as a tenant.

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