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Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

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Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#181
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So basically German "failure", but global success? And everyone else who tries it will do better because Germans ate the costs?

"everyone else who tries it will do better because Germans ate the costs?" Yes on both your points. Sadly, German industry didn't get the benefit. Which makes it harder to convince the country to do stuff like this again. Very different from Tesla, where a bunch of silicon valley people ate the cost (e.g. VCs, roadster, 2012 model-S) and then many benefitted as they own stock.

They may have prevented a far larger wave of climate refugees than the current batch of migrants and refugees that have proved so politically costly for the ruling party in Germany.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#182
post #159

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

The House of Saud has a plan. It isn't going quite as well as they had hoped, but it's going. Aramco was IPO'd. They wanted a trillion dollar valuation, and didn't get it. The next step is to sell that stock before the oil market collapses, preferably leaving themselves with a lot of cash and a minority stake in a much smaller company. Cash is going into technology stocks, venture funds, and international real estate…

Just to preempt the other obvious reply (Okay - so that's good for the House of Saud but what about the rest of the country?). If they're wise and invest that money into education they could just convert their current rather highly skilled resource economy into an economy focused on service, finances or defense.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#183
post #115

The "safest and cleanest" chart is VERY misleading when in comes to nuclear. It completely ignores the LONG-TERM risk for human survival: catastrophic release of large quantities of active fuel or waste (due to events like war, terrorism, natural disasters).

Big disasters too happen with fossils and hydro.

Hydro plant failures have ocurred, and are far and away the most lethal energy-related accidents to date, true. The worst power plant accident of time, not a nuclear power plant failure, but a hydro station in China, Banqiao Dam.

It's instructive several ways.

Any number of fairly simple methods would have hugely alleviated the impact of the disaster. Much as with major nuclear disasters, it was a cascade of failures, starting with poor management and a dysfunctional culture, amplified through poor design, adverse conditions, poor communications, delayed or absent warnings, and little or no disaster response (many of the deaths were attributed to starvation and disease, not drowning or other physical impacts).

A useful thing to keep in mind, though, is that after a dam break is done being a a massive disaster area, which typically resolves in a few hours to a few weeks, the land is no longer a glowing radioactive mess. It can be re-settled and populated as structures and infrasctructure are rebuilt. Zhumadian City, the region surrounding Banqiao, has a present population of over 7 million.

Hydro disasters have been large, but are tangible/sensible, immediate, and resolve relatively quickly.

There are literally tens of thousand of dams, if not > 100k, worldwide (over 22k in China alone), with well over a century of major utilisation. Granted 100 or fewer major (2+GWe) installations.

There are fewer than 400 nuclear power stations worldwide, with at least three highly notable failures.

The immediate innundation from Banqiao was responsible for ~25k deaths. The additional 100k or so came from starvation and disease due to widespread disruption of the region, and a grossly inadequate disaster response plan and capability. Adequate engineering, operation, management, forecasting, disaster planning, preparation, and response, could have reduced the loss still further.

Organisational / institutional failures at Chernobyl, Fukushima, and for that matter, Hanford and Sellafield, were and are massive contributing factors. These cannot be engineered around.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great question! Here's what Germany did: They invested a vast amount in local renewables, at above market prices, that had the effect of dramatically driving down the global price of wind and solar. Because they radically expanded production capacity. Effectively, Germany gave the world a 'gift'! This had the long-term affect of dramatically increasing global solar + wind deployments (b/c prices fell) and transferrin…

Didn’t the 2009 Recovery Act that Obama spearheaded also have a heavily invest in renewables? [1] Over 10 years it averaged to about 9 billion per year. I seem to recall that this investment push was twofold: investment in American renewable tech and rebates to spur demand. China heavily cut solar prices to undercut those solar investments (leading to Solyndra’s bankruptcy) but that had the effect of lowering prices…

Germany started in the year 2000 with guaranteed, high prices to providers of solar/wind energy and that their feeding into the electrical grid has preference over other providers. Additionally they employed grants for citizens deploying solar on their roofs.

That massively raised the electricity prices, resulting in the world's costliest electricity.

Around 24% (!) of the German electricity price is a Renewable Surcharge[1]. With a >$350 billion/year power industry revenue it is easy to see that Germany's contribution to kickstart large scale solar and wind power generation can hardly be overstated.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_German...

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#185
post #43

> Fossil fuels dominate the global power supply because until very recently electricity from fossil fuels was far cheaper than electricity from renewables. This has dramatically changed within the last decade. In most places in the world power from new renewables is now cheaper than power from new fossil fuels. This is the thing our great-grandkids will ask us about. ("were you alive back when?") Millenia from now, h…

I'd vote for "post-advanced batteries" instead of "post-solar". Solar will only be one of the energy sources and the thing that will take us to the next level will be advanced battery tech, in my opinion. Imagine something with the energy density of kerosene but rechargeable. My brain can't even imagine what we'd do with it, but it would probably transform our daily lives more than the invention of the automobile did…

I'm trying to imagine something more revolutionary than the automobile, and I'm having trouble!

Barring the legal/political hurdles, I could theoretically drive from my home in Texas to Alaska, then cross to Russia, and on to Paris in around 250~ driving hours. Throw in another day or two for a private boat across the Bering Strait/North Pacific.

9 days to basically drive around the entire world. 15000 miles. Just for giggles, my 2012 Honda CRV will get around 350-400 miles per tank of gas. We'll drive conservatively at 60 mph to hit the full range. Depending on the cost of gasoline, I could drive around the entire world for about $1200. Maybe $1500 once I get into Europe. Insane!

Before cars, that same journey would take months moving non stop. A solo trip can now be done in about 2 weeks with an experienced driver.

Absolutely insane the cool stuff we can do with modern technology :)

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#186

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

> It means that countries which rely on fossil fuels for their economy, are going to see the same kind of crushing economic decline that, say, the UK coal industry has.

> What do you suppose happens when, for example, Saudi Arabia can no longer feed itself? It just peacefully and gently starves to death?

First, I think you have to segregate between different kinds of fossil fuels.

Coal is the worst. From what I understand, it's mostly used in industry, power generation and heating. The main problem is: it's really dirty.

Natural gas probably has a much longer period of future usability. Tesla has shown quite readily that batteries are probably better than peaker plants for most cases. But for home heating and cooking, natural gas will probably have utility for quite some time. Yes - it does release greenhouse glasses, but the immediate health concerns in terms of the pm2.5 released by burning it are relatively minor.

Petroleum is in a similar boat. The main use for petroleum - automotive transport will probably be gradually phased out over the next 20 years (a reasonable approximation of how long used cars last), but it's used for more than just that. Plastic production and aviation fuel are probably two of the uses that will probably have some real longevity to them. In theory, naval propulsion is more amenable to electrification than aviation, but that'll be tricky to do economically; that is another area that petroleum could have a long useful life in.

In short, while there will be a dramatic drop in the consumption of fossil fuels, I have serious doubts that it will get anywhere close to zero in less than 40 years. I do think it is likely that coal burning will probably go away completely and both natural gas and petroleum use will decrease by over 90%. What that will do to the price is hard to say.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#187
The issue for me is that it doesn't matter how cheap they are.

Australian government approach is largely to subsidize homeowners to put solar panels on their roof. (They do do other things too! But billions in home owner subsidies...) The main incentive of course is they then have cheaper power bills for not much outlay.

If you rent, nearly nothing. You'd have to have a generous landlord or luck out on a house someone has already done and then moved from. The latter will admittedly will become more common over time.

If you live in an apartment, nearly nothing. While it is technically possible to put solar on the roof the extra complications of body corporate make it largely a non-starter. Besides, in truely large apartment buildings the roof top space is tiny compared to the number of apartments so the benefit is minimal anyway.

So for now, only standalone homeowners get this benefit. And while I am not sure, I suspect reducing homeowners customer costs shifts the cost burden for the grid slightly more to others.

I just want the government to fund society wide infrastructure to benefit everyone in society...

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great question! Here's what Germany did: They invested a vast amount in local renewables, at above market prices, that had the effect of dramatically driving down the global price of wind and solar. Because they radically expanded production capacity. Effectively, Germany gave the world a 'gift'! This had the long-term affect of dramatically increasing global solar + wind deployments (b/c prices fell) and transferrin…

Didn’t the 2009 Recovery Act that Obama spearheaded also have a heavily invest in renewables? [1] Over 10 years it averaged to about 9 billion per year. I seem to recall that this investment push was twofold: investment in American renewable tech and rebates to spur demand. China heavily cut solar prices to undercut those solar investments (leading to Solyndra’s bankruptcy) but that had the effect of lowering prices…

Apparently the first German law was introduced in 2000 [0]. I see the argument that is made, Germany pushing the sector and I remember a lot of folks investing into solar in the 2000s.

[0]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Renewable_Energy_Sour...

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#189

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

A powerful Saudi Arabia has not been a force for good in the world so I don't know why I'm supposed to worry about it.

The land itself isn't going anywhere. The sands of Saudi Arabia won't sink below the sea. The physical country will still exist. But what kind of government, what kind of state, can afford to govern that space and provide for its people, without oil revenue?

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#190
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is why rooftop solar, which has the highest LCOE of any power generation, still ends up making sense for consumers. Because it doesn't have to compete on the open market, it just has to be plausibly cheaper than your utility bill

Rooftop solar still have 5+ years ROI. Recently utilities changed billing plans to make it even less attractive.

NB: ROI isn't measured in years, it's a ratio.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Return_on_investment

Payback period is.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Payback_period

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