Why did renewables become so cheap so fast? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#421

Post by pmiller2 » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 8:29 AM UTC

freewilly1040 wrote: post #395

pmiller2 wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil is not running out in Saudi Arabia anytime soon. They have reserves underneath their desert land equal to over 200 years' worth of current consumption. [0] What they need to do is stop pumping it, and soon, otherwise climate change will cook us all. --- [0]: https://www.worldometers.info/oil/saudi-arabia-oil/

At this point it seems demand for oil will run out before supply

I hope so, but then I look around at all the less developed countries out there and all I see is a massive demand for oil. :/

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#422

Post by seniorivn » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 8:33 AM UTC

markdown wrote: post #257

stevenleeg wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In certain parts of the US with retail choice this is already a reality, check out Griddy[0] in Texas. They'll give you wholesale electricity prices which is all sweet and dandy until there's a shortage of supply (generally on the hottest days of the summer) and the price shoots up to $9000 per MWh. Honestly it's a great deal if you're willing to accept the risk associated with it (or work from home and can quickly r…

Sounds like something easily automated. If the electricity price goes above x, cut off power to a, b, c, leaving on d.

and switch d to battery

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#423

Post by gns24 » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 8:40 AM UTC

mariuolo wrote: post #405

redisman wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have a lot of money to invest and they could also export solar if they want to stay in the energy business. Lots of sunlight there.

> they could also export solar I remember an old discussion about this. The main problem is that transmission lines to potential customers would have to traverse unfriendly countries.

There are already plans for massive investment in a hydrogen production plant - though obviously there are still lots of issues to be solved with that energy pipeline.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20201112-the-green-hydrog...

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#424

Post by LoSboccacc » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 8:40 AM UTC

rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

> It just peacefully and gently starves to death?

they know damn well and are already diversifying their portfolio; beside, even if we stop burning these fuels, fossil based carbon polymer will be with us for a while until vegetable alternative can be mass produce in matching qualities.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#425

Post by bildung » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 8:44 AM UTC

rtx wrote: post #329

wp381640 wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The largest power stations at the moment are always going to be stored hydro - they take up a lot of land. Those large coal burners also take up a lot of land when you consider the mines, transport infra, tailings dams, coal piles not to mention the clean air they "take up"

Thats why we should be exclusively nuclear.

The very article clearly explains why the world moves in the opposite direction.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#426

Post by agumonkey » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 8:44 AM UTC

sxates wrote: post #125

Personal anecdote - my house has two sets of solar panels on the roof - the first was installed in 2017, the second was just installed last month. In 2017 my 6kw system cost $24,000 before any incentives (by SolarCity). In 2020 my 7.8kw system cost $15,000 before any incentives (by Tesla). Of that $15k, $4.3k was for the panels themselves, $2k for the inverter, $1k for mounting hardware, and $8k for installation. It'…

I hear more and more that building codes are updated to include solar. So maybe there will be a standard, thus reduced cost.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#427

Post by marvin » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 8:45 AM UTC

magicalhippo wrote: post #94

marvin wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Norway's system of municipal hydropower ownership combined with export of surplus hydropower, effectively converts the (basically mandatory) electricity bill into a tax. Reducing the need for other forms of local government taxation, given that the municipality is well-run and not corrupt. Beneficial side effects are incentivizing power efficiency, since capital-intensive efforts like insulating your house and instal…

Yeah as long as ownership is retained by the public I don't mind so much, I'd just like it if they called a spade a spade. But things are getting sold off, which is a worrying trend.

I agree, also regarding the latest wind power projects. These are often built on public land, and regardless on land that's open to the public through the right to roam.

I would have less of a problem with it if the incomes from these power stations were owned by the municipalities. But the municipal governments have demonstrated time and time again that they really suck at negotiating. So what happens is that private investors, often foreign, negotiate a very cheap lease where wind turbines are built on public land. All profits, except a small yearly lease to the municipality, are returned to the investors.

There should be people in the current conservative government that understand enough about market forces to step in and ensure that profitable wind power projects are actually built by the municipalities, but looks like they're asleep at the wheel. Or maybe there's some special interest groups that have managed to sneak in and stop that kind of measure. This is an area where ideology ends up being the enemy of the public.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#428

Post by brazzy » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 8:47 AM UTC

oa335 wrote: post #352

jhallenworld wrote: post #191

You know what's amazing? Farmers in rural Pakistan choosing to prefer solar to irrigate their crops (panels + VFD/inverter + 10 HP 3-phase motor): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfNgF0WTeCM Or grinding wheat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_G2evJOiU9I The comments in these video are all about how much does it cost, what is your contact number, etc. Clearly this is a sea-change. Also amazing that they all have cell…

Definitely a sea change happening. I’ve noticed a proliferation of “village life” YouTube channels from Pakistan... it seems that cheap solar power, cellular internet, and cheap smartphones is bringing a whole new class of people online and enriching their lives both materially and culturally.

Unfortunately, it also sometimes results in lynch mobs: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-44856910

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#429

Post by marvin » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 8:47 AM UTC

hansjorg wrote: post #110

marvin wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Norway's system of municipal hydropower ownership combined with export of surplus hydropower, effectively converts the (basically mandatory) electricity bill into a tax. Reducing the need for other forms of local government taxation, given that the municipality is well-run and not corrupt. Beneficial side effects are incentivizing power efficiency, since capital-intensive efforts like insulating your house and instal…

Great summary of what's at play here. > Given these benefits, retaining ownership of the hydropower companies in the hands of the public is super important It's almost unfathomable to me that anyone can disagree with this, yet I'm pretty sure the status quo won't last for much longer. I'm tempted to use some very strong words for describing those that are working to this end, but I guess it could all boil down to ide…

Quisling would be an appropriate word. I really wish the political right managed to put their ideology on the shelf for this case. It's a case of blindly following heuristics rather than reasoning about the underlying principles.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#430

Post by hutzlibu » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 8:51 AM UTC

rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

"What does that mean, besides lower carbon?"

It also means fresh air in the cities and much less noise.

Not a small point.

Smaller points would be less enviroment damage with oil drills, potential groundwater poisening or earthquakes with fracking, not oil tanker crashes and oceanic catastrophic events.

And about Saudia Arabia: I don't see, why "we" need to have a plan for them.

I see less money for various fanatic groups, if the arabic oil nations have to be a bit more conservative about money spending.

But what they could do (and some people there see this, too) is invest heavily in solarenergy, too and basically do solarfarming. And then use that energy to produce big time, or directly export the energy. Processed in form of hydrogen/methanol/.. or with high voltage direct current transmissiom directly to europe for example.