Why did renewables become so cheap so fast? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#331

Post by visarga » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 4:30 AM UTC

dsr_ wrote: post #159

rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

The House of Saud has a plan. It isn't going quite as well as they had hoped, but it's going. Aramco was IPO'd. They wanted a trillion dollar valuation, and didn't get it. The next step is to sell that stock before the oil market collapses, preferably leaving themselves with a lot of cash and a minority stake in a much smaller company. Cash is going into technology stocks, venture funds, and international real estate…

> Cash is going into technology stocks, venture funds, and international real estate.

And that's how the situation in SF came to be. Lots of money wanting to be "saved" by tech.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#332

Post by thescriptkiddie » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 4:30 AM UTC

mrfusion wrote: post #179

I hate the argument that we’re just waiting for batteries now. I think if we had variable pricing that matched the availability of renewables, consumers would shift quickly. Say something like power costs .02/kWh while the sun is shining and .30 when it’s not. I’d charge my car at work. I’d put a timer on my dryer to turn on at 10am. They probably come out with a hot water heater that goes really hot during the day a…

The water heater thing has existed in the UK for years, it's called a storage heater.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#333

Post by biren34 » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 4:33 AM UTC

I have real problem with this discussion of "cheap" when it comes to wind and solar.

1. The marginal cost per kWh is calculated based on amortizing upfront costs over 20+ years, and those schedules have often proven to be quite optimistic.

2. The marginal cost per kWh is only a small piece of the puzzle when it comes to intermittent power sources.

The proper cost needs to attribute the cost of matching supply and demand. The supposedly easy answer is storage, but storing electricity is hard. Grid scale batteries are quite expensive and general deployment would cause a very real spike in the cost the raw materials. With proper accounting, the cost of renewables are not cheap at all, as proven by Germany and California.

3. The renewables industry likes to downplay the sheer volume of fossil fuels required to manufacture the parts. The energy ROI on this is quite poor, and in many cases, we would have been better off skipping the intermediate step and burning the oil and gas directly.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#334

Post by graeme » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 4:35 AM UTC

biren34 wrote: post #333

I have real problem with this discussion of "cheap" when it comes to wind and solar. 1. The marginal cost per kWh is calculated based on amortizing upfront costs over 20+ years, and those schedules have often proven to be quite optimistic. 2. The marginal cost per kWh is only a small piece of the puzzle when it comes to intermittent power sources. The proper cost needs to attribute the cost of matching supply and dem…

> The renewables industry likes to downplay the sheer volume of fossil fuels required to manufacture the parts. The energy ROI on this is quite poor, and in many cases, we would have been better off skipping the intermediate step and burning the oil and gas directly.

Is this from electricity (which could be renewable in future), or is there an actual hard requirement for carbon in terms of burning very hot materials to generate heat in the manufacturing process or something?

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#335

Post by okareaman » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 4:35 AM UTC

MeinBlutIstBlau wrote: post #316

mrfusion wrote: post #179

I hate the argument that we’re just waiting for batteries now. I think if we had variable pricing that matched the availability of renewables, consumers would shift quickly. Say something like power costs .02/kWh while the sun is shining and .30 when it’s not. I’d charge my car at work. I’d put a timer on my dryer to turn on at 10am. They probably come out with a hot water heater that goes really hot during the day a…

As an upper midwesterner, that would be an incredibly hard sell. You could whip up support for coal again in heartbeat. Renewables are a great idea in theory, but in reality don't jive well with people in the non-windy, non-sunny areas that also get really damn cold. It's sad to say it but nothing can beat what natural gas and coal can do already. They're cheap and can be used to generate electricity at an extraordin…

If I understand what you're saying, it is that there's little wind, not much sun and it's extremely cold in say, North Dakota, so fossil fuels are cheaper there? Seems to be about a 10 mph avg wind speed [1] and sunny about half the time in daylight hours in winter [2]

[1] https://www.ndsu.edu/climate/North%20Dakota%20Data/Yearly%20...

[2] http://www.bismarck.climatemps.com/sunlight.php

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#336

Post by mooreds » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 4:40 AM UTC

MR4D wrote: post #321

tuatoru wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks!

But read his other book first: Accidental Superpower. Also, he narrates that book but not the new one. Which is too bad because his narration is truly additive to the book.

Good point, "The Accidental Superpower" is wondrous in scope and ideas. The "Absent Superpower", the sequel, is OK; had some interesting insights about shale and the coming removal of the USA from the world. But the first book is timeless.

His Twitter feed is high signal as well: https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#337

Post by Qwertious » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 4:40 AM UTC

bosswipe wrote: post #180

rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

A powerful Saudi Arabia has not been a force for good in the world so I don't know why I'm supposed to worry about it.

Violence and instability in the middle east has caused problems in western countries. Of particular note are 9/11 and Europe's refugee crisis.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#338

Post by Qwertious » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 4:41 AM UTC

ponker wrote: post #325

rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

The only thing stopping the US from turning Saudi Arabia to glass is that we need their oil. If we don’t it’s game over.

Saudi Arabia also is useful for a military base, and to keep Iran in check.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#339

Post by xyzzyz » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 4:42 AM UTC

ehnto wrote: post #292

klipt wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Index funds will buy at the market value, no? Is the market still overvaluing oil given knowledge of renewables?

Renewables as a utility power source won't stop our reliance on oil. Fossil fuels like coal and natural gas are on the chopping board, but oil still has considerable permeation through our lives and a very large conversion cost and social inertia to overcome yet. Plastics, shipping fuels, many manufacturing processes use oil during manufacturing but perhaps not in the final product. Vehicles are still decades away fr…

Most common plastics, that is, polyethylene, PVC, and polypropylene, can and often are produced from natural gas feedstock: many natural gas fields have abundant ethane, ethylene, and propane.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#340

Post by fy20 » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 4:45 AM UTC

zepearl wrote: post #163

gandalfian wrote: post #61

The Germans paid for it creating the market/industry. Vast amounts. Then the Chinese thought it looked like a good industry to be in and threw unbelievable money at developing manufacturing capacity. If the Germans keep voting green and being parsimonious savers then we may yet get cheap batteries and survive.

Personally I think (hope) that huge imports from foreign countries of energy-generation hardware (thinking especially about solar panels, not sure about the rest) won't last forever and internal production of such components will be somehow in/directly promoted, which might lead at some point to a stabilization of prices (because of less competitivity / more protectionism), at least for a while. This thought being ba…

At least in Europe prices for European vs Chinese panels are not that different. In my country I've seen Chinese panels for €80/ea and locally manufactured for €140/ea (for a ~300w panel).

Most people prefer the European panels because the overall price isn't that much different, and they know if they ever need to make a warranty claim it'll be a lot easier from a European manufacturer.

These are retail prices for home installation - of course for utility scale it's a different story.