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Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

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Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#271

Post by tuatoru »

rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

> But, do we really have a plan for the consequences, not only in Saudi Arabia but also every other nation that's dependent on oil? Hint: we do not.

That's kind of sad.

A long time ago (just before the GFC) I looked at trends in climate change (Arctic sea ice specifically, but that's just a canary), demography, China's GDP, and things like PV/Wind learning curves, and said to myself: "things will get interesting in 2023, plus or minus 7 years." Meaning, geopolitically.

Covid seems to have accelerated events, but the trends were all there way back then, visible to anyone who had the time to think about them. I seem to recall reading warnings by internal think tanks in the US Military that were penned in 2005 or so, warning of these very issues.

Still, I have printed and blu-tacked up the quote from Axel Oxenstierna: "Do you not know, my son, with how very little wisdom the world is governed?"[1].

So I shouldn't be surprised.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axel_Oxenstierna#Quotation

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#272

Post by wp381640 »

manfredo wrote: post #213
integer42 wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclears not some secret unexplored concept at this point. If it were competitive it would be competing. Its costs are too high, not due to regulations due to the sheer amount of resources involved in mining, refining, and operating. Not to mention initial construction.

It's doing much better in terms of actually being used as a large portion of countries electricity generation, as I demonstrated above. But more importantly, the reality is that nuclear isn't competing against renewables it's competing against a fossil fuel grid that's supplemented by renewables. Germany, the poster child for renewables, still emits 10x the carbon dioxide per watt of electricity as France. Let me put…

Battery was and is never supposed to take up the entire storage load of a network - nobody is designing or forecasting future networks in that way.

Batteries provide fast response

Pumped hydro is what is being used on a lot of networks and in future network planning. Ironically old open cut mines are often perfect locations for them.

This paper discusses an algorithm used to find pumped hydro sites - there is _a lot_ of capacity out there waiting to be tapped

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626191...

There are already numerous draft or under constructions plants that are "triple" projects with a combination of solar/wind + battery + pumped hydro

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#273

Post by DavidAdams »

m463 wrote: post #246
discordance wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel" - Saeed Al Maktoum

> ...his son will ride a camel I wonder if in the future, camels will be owned and/or ridden only by very wealthy individuals. (like many horses nowadays)

That's currently the case in the UAE. Only fancy people who race camels own camels.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#274

Post by rootusrootus »

m463 wrote: post #252
mrfusion wrote: post #179

I hate the argument that we’re just waiting for batteries now. I think if we had variable pricing that matched the availability of renewables, consumers would shift quickly. Say something like power costs .02/kWh while the sun is shining and .30 when it’s not. I’d charge my car at work. I’d put a timer on my dryer to turn on at 10am. They probably come out with a hot water heater that goes really hot during the day a…

Some states have this. I remember a friend in new york had a timer on his electric water heater to heat it at night when power was cheap. But you are right - market forces are extremely powerful in their ability to optimize things.

I think it's pretty common to have time-of-use pricing (that's what my provider calls it, and I am on the plan), but it's relatively fixed. Ours switches schedule twice a year. So you can get used to it, I only charge our EVs after 10pm for example. But if it changed dynamically, I'd need to have a lot of automation in place to react, because it would get tiring to personally pay attention to price all the time.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#275

Post by redtexture »

nordsieck wrote: post #232
aaronblohowiak wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does plastic production necessarily emit co2?

> Does plastic production necessarily emit co2? I don't think so. But it currently uses petroleum/natural gas as feedstock.

Energy is required to produce anything, thus consuming and producing CO2.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#276

Post by aaronblohowiak »

nordsieck wrote: post #232
aaronblohowiak wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does plastic production necessarily emit co2?

> Does plastic production necessarily emit co2? I don't think so. But it currently uses petroleum/natural gas as feedstock.

So I don’t think that is actually a problem wrt climate change. Then it is more comparable to other mined minerals.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#277

Post by aaronblohowiak »

redtexture wrote: post #275
nordsieck wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Does plastic production necessarily emit co2? I don't think so. But it currently uses petroleum/natural gas as feedstock.

Energy is required to produce anything, thus consuming and producing CO2.

Well that energy could be from renewable — we can continue the plastic age into the zero carbon emission age.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#278

Post by Budabellly »

epistasis wrote: post #228
the_economist wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's still the problem of what to do between 4pm and 8 am on a day without wind, which means we won't be able to shut down too many power plants until cheap energy storage exists.

Energy storage is already cheap enough to provide this for a few hours in the evening, as long as it's guaranteed that the battery get to discharge (and get paid) daily. In the ERCOT market, one of the markets that's most open to new, independent entrants reusing to make money, the interconnection queue has more GW of storage than natural gas. The much trickier problem is storage that's only needed once a week, once…

Gravity batteries! Basically a hunk of concrete that uses spare grid power to be hoisted, and then converts the gravitational energy when its dropped.

Seems like there are only a few companies giving it a real go.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_battery

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#279

Post by xbmcuser »

jhloa2 wrote: post #209
vbezhenar wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From my perspective those costs are massive. I'm considering building a whole house from bricks which will cost $30-$40k. I probably won't spend $15k for electricity for all of my life. I don't understand western economy. You've got extremely costly electricity and you're claiming that solar power is good. It might be true for you, but it won't ever come to me at those prices. I'm paying $0.03 for kW⋅h. I'm spending…

The average cost of residential electricity in the US is just under $0.12/kWh. A $6/mo electricity bill is pretty much unheard of around here. My electricity bill is around $50/mo and we only have 2 people living in the house. It would still take me ~25 years at my current rates and usages to break even, but the economics might work out better if you have a higher occupancy residence.

As more people move to electric vehicles putting in solar panels will become more feasible. The price of solar is falling so fast that if it is unfeasible today it might not be the same 2-4-6 years from now. 5-6 years ago a lot of people that are installing solar now calculated that it was not worth it for them then but it is now as the prices have fallen 50-60%.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#280

Post by jussij »

vbezhenar wrote: post #201
sxates wrote: post #125

Personal anecdote - my house has two sets of solar panels on the roof - the first was installed in 2017, the second was just installed last month. In 2017 my 6kw system cost $24,000 before any incentives (by SolarCity). In 2020 my 7.8kw system cost $15,000 before any incentives (by Tesla). Of that $15k, $4.3k was for the panels themselves, $2k for the inverter, $1k for mounting hardware, and $8k for installation. It'…

From my perspective those costs are massive. I'm considering building a whole house from bricks which will cost $30-$40k. I probably won't spend $15k for electricity for all of my life. I don't understand western economy. You've got extremely costly electricity and you're claiming that solar power is good. It might be true for you, but it won't ever come to me at those prices. I'm paying $0.03 for kW⋅h. I'm spending…

> I probably won't spend $15k for electricity for all of my life

Living in a two bedroom unit in Sydney my last quarterly electricity bill was over $500.00 which comes to over $2000.00 a year.

Basically here in Sydney we have high electricity prices and my washer, drier and air conditioner love to chew up electricity.

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