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Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

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Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#231

Post by hcurtiss »

spenrose wrote: post #153
albertop wrote: post #5

Too bad that low cost is invisible for the consumers. California has one of the most, if not the most, expensive electricity in spite of years of investment in renewables.

California has high rates , like the Northeast[1], primarily because it pulls some externalities onto the bill. Red-state residents not paying for the cost of pollution doesn't eliminate the cost! But California has moderate bills due to decades of work on efficiency. (Climate helps somewhat, but there is a huge AC load in 30m-inhabitant SoCal.) [1] https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/

That's not what my family in California tells me. Their bills are exorbitant for a more modest lifestyle, and this is in contrast to Oregon.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#232

Post by nordsieck »

aaronblohowiak wrote: post #224
nordsieck wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It means that countries which rely on fossil fuels for their economy, are going to see the same kind of crushing economic decline that, say, the UK coal industry has. > What do you suppose happens when, for example, Saudi Arabia can no longer feed itself? It just peacefully and gently starves to death? First, I think you have to segregate between different kinds of fossil fuels. Coal is the worst. From what I under…

Does plastic production necessarily emit co2?

> Does plastic production necessarily emit co2?

I don't think so. But it currently uses petroleum/natural gas as feedstock.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#233

Post by sp332 »

mrfusion wrote: post #179

I hate the argument that we’re just waiting for batteries now. I think if we had variable pricing that matched the availability of renewables, consumers would shift quickly. Say something like power costs .02/kWh while the sun is shining and .30 when it’s not. I’d charge my car at work. I’d put a timer on my dryer to turn on at 10am. They probably come out with a hot water heater that goes really hot during the day a…

That water heater idea is interesting. You could put a thermostatic valve on the output that mixes in cold water so the output was always the same temp no matter what the inside is. Usually people turn the temp down to save money, but if you can heat it way up when energy is cheap, that might change completely.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#234

Post by marktangotango »

anonuser123456 wrote: post #218
vbezhenar wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From my perspective those costs are massive. I'm considering building a whole house from bricks which will cost $30-$40k. I probably won't spend $15k for electricity for all of my life. I don't understand western economy. You've got extremely costly electricity and you're claiming that solar power is good. It might be true for you, but it won't ever come to me at those prices. I'm paying $0.03 for kW⋅h. I'm spending…

Where do you live that you pay $0.03/kWh?

A lot of bitcoin miners would love that rate!

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#235

Post by arjun-menon »

discordance wrote: post #196
rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel" - Saeed Al Maktoum

The quote is actually likely from a member of Dubai Royal Family.

An interesting fact here is that the UAE will never become poor.

The UAE has saved up over 1.3 million USD dollars per citizen[a]. And this is just the government’s savings. Obviously, there’s immense private wealth on top of that as well. Even if with investment returns as low as 4% per year drawn out, that would translate to $52,000 per citizen.

This is 52k of money that you could almost call free money. We’re not counting for the fact that at least half these citizens are not going to simply sit at home. They’re going to work, earn, start companies, etc. And the citizenry is very highly educated. And a lot of them actually have STEM degrees too (which correlates with higher earnings). So realistically, the per capita annual income could be in the over $100k per citizen range, even after the oil has run out.

[a] The UAE has about 1 million citizens (most of the ~9 million who live in the UAE are not citizens), and the UAE’s sovereign wealth funds have total assets exceeding USD $1.3 trillion: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_soverei...

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#237

Post by photojosh »

mb7733 wrote: post #194
_carbyau_ wrote: post #187

The issue for me is that it doesn't matter how cheap they are. Australian government approach is largely to subsidize homeowners to put solar panels on their roof. (They do do other things too! But billions in home owner subsidies...) The main incentive of course is they then have cheaper power bills for not much outlay. If you rent, nearly nothing. You'd have to have a generous landlord or luck out on a house someon…

Wouldn't landlords have the same incentive? By lowering the cost of utilities for their rental property they can increase the share of rent they keep as profit (in the case that utilities are included in rent) or charge more rent, based on the fact that the property is more desirable with the cheaper utilities / better environmental footprint. Renewables are nothing new here. The same incentives encourage landlords t…

In Australia, the renter almost always pays the power bill (excepting share houses, usually students).

It's hard to market "you'll spend less on power so that's why the rent is higher".

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#238

Post by girvo »

nordsieck wrote: post #186
rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

> It means that countries which rely on fossil fuels for their economy, are going to see the same kind of crushing economic decline that, say, the UK coal industry has. > What do you suppose happens when, for example, Saudi Arabia can no longer feed itself? It just peacefully and gently starves to death? First, I think you have to segregate between different kinds of fossil fuels. Coal is the worst. From what I under…

I hope coal burning goes away; but that will have a pretty outsized impact on my country (Australia), and the fact that we don’t tax the mining companies enough means our government could end up lacking the means to invest in things to help us transition away from being a mining focused country. It worries me.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#239

Post by jhallenworld »

bausano_michael wrote: post #226
jhallenworld wrote: post #191

You know what's amazing? Farmers in rural Pakistan choosing to prefer solar to irrigate their crops (panels + VFD/inverter + 10 HP 3-phase motor): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfNgF0WTeCM Or grinding wheat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_G2evJOiU9I The comments in these video are all about how much does it cost, what is your contact number, etc. Clearly this is a sea-change. Also amazing that they all have cell…

That reminds me of an article linked few months back about opium farming: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53450688

A good cash crop unfortunately...

To complete the picture, here is how you can drill the well in the first place:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nn7twImE2ug

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#240

Post by aaronblohowiak »

_carbyau_ wrote: post #172
zdragnar wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A charitable reply would be advances (real and predicted) in energy storage- I dont think anyone is deluded into thinking that wind or solar alone form a good baseline. That said, Germany's investments are clearly a failure, IF you go by the desired carbon reduction goals for 2020-2030. I also don't know anyone who genuinely believes any of those carbon goals are feasible, or that we have high odds of hitting them...…

I honestly think the goals are technically feasible. I would even go so far as to say easily so. But ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons I put my money on the world failing horribly and plan accordingly.

What’s that plan look like?
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