But I thought "nobody should trust the vaccine developed this quickly". What has changed in a week?
Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
831–840 of 1001 posts
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#832Earlier quoted context omitted.
Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…
There's also participation on the contact side. In Western countries, surveys indicate we can't convince even half of people to install a contact tracing smartphone app. According to my state's department of health, practical experience indicates we can't convince even half of people to pick up the phone and respond to a contact tracing interview. > Covid19 would also be over if people with symptoms would just stay h…
> One of the things that makes SARS-CoV-2 such a problem is that people get contagious long before they show symptoms.
I also wonder how effective the vaccine is at preventing its receivers from even reaching that asymptomatic but already contagious stage. If "90%" is just "90% less reach symptomatic stage" then the percentage of receivers that are prevented from reaching contagiousness could be much lower.
This would basically mean that the virus is almost guaranteed to become endemic despite vaccination (unless another vaccine also removes the contagious stage quite well) and that everyone who doesn't get a vaccine will eventually test their immune system against the virus.
Natural immunity often follows a similar pattern. After a while you become susceptible to a light reinfection but the immune system will be in a very good position for a quick - but not instantaneous - victory on its second encounter with the virus. Under those circumstances, herd immunity effects fail to realize unless the first wave is so lightning fast that it fizzles out before the immune systems of early survivors (or the similarly vaccinated) fall back into standby mode.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#833I'm feeling a deep-seated wave of relief that I never thought possible. Like waking up from a year-long nightmare. Thank God.
I'm glad we are going to have a vaccine, but I'm not so happy about 90% I have built up in my head the idea of all the things I'm going to do 'once I get vaccinated', but at 90% that gets pushed off to "once most people get vaccinated". If it were by myself, I might push my luck. But I want to do those things with friends, or family. .9^n is pretty shitty odds once n gets to around 5. There's a sort of rhetoric that'…
0.9^n are the odds where you all go and get exposed simultaneously. When a large enough portion of the population is vaccinated, that prior probability goes way down.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#834Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yup. But we do need the government to step in and do this (contact tracing etc.). Hopefully, with the new administration...
I wrote a post about it above. I live in the bluest of blue states, which in the other comments here, in that narrative, you expect cooperation and all this stuff. A false media narrative, if I do say so, but that's not the point - the point is no one trusts the folks behind the technology, nor do we trust random phone numbers. So the Citizen App has contact tracing. But you have to check into the app, and furthermor…
Exactly this. I'm not installing anything on my phone, and I don't answer phone calls that are not from my contacts. I've never been tested because I don't trust the testing companies.
If I'm sick, I'll stay home. I wear a mask where I'm required to. That's the limit of my participation in this hysteria.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#835Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?
Note it is at least 90%. Case number is likely too low to give a tighter estimate with high enough confidence. That is, even if no one vaccinated is infected they still can't claim a much higher effectiveness with confidence as there are only 94 cases. So they are giving just a lower bound.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#836Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'd happily take a shot a year for a decade in return for getting rid of lockdown.
I am very curious if the adenovirus carrier candidates can even be used for a booster at all.
It's an interesting question, especially in light of the fact that the leadings viral vector candidates require a booster shot after the initial vaccination except the J&J candidate.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#837Anybody knows what's up with China-based Tosun, BioNTech's other partner next to Pfizer? Is it known whether Tosun will produce the vaccine, or is just not that much of a deal in China anymore?
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#838Earlier quoted context omitted.
The current n=94. The real n=43.5k data apparently will come later. Article doesn’t specify when, but “hopes” to have enough of the larger n analyzed to submit to regulators by 3rd week of November.
No, 43.5k is the number of people in the trial and 94 is the number of confirmed COVID cases within the entire population. The trial will be complete from an effectiveness perspective once there are ~150-200 cases. Safety is a different story and may take more time to wait for side effects.
Thankfully safety is looking pretty good according to the press release. However I look forward to reading expert analyses of the actual data to confirm.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#839Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?
Also bad: What did they use to stabilize the mRNA? If they’re managing to do it with just temperature and maybe glycerol, that’s great. If it’s RNAlater, then that’s going to have safety issues. If it’s something else, how was the additive tested for long term safety? (Vaccines like this have been in the works for a long time. There has been time for safety studies.) Edit: RNAlater MSDS sheet: https://tools.thermofis…
I don't read safety sheets often so I'm likely off base here, so please correct me if I'm wrong. My interpretation is that when used correctly it's safe.
Section 2 states it is non-hazardous.
Section 4 states it is not expected to present a significant ingestion/inhalation hazard under anticipated conditions of normal use.
Finally, Section 11 indicates that the Ammonium compounds present in RNALater may be harmful, but only when they are administered at LD50 concentrations.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#840Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?
> Good: ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. As far as I recall, the high R0 of COVID-19 meant that >90% was needed for herd immunity. You then also have to factor anti-vaxxers into the equation. It's a good stop-gap for the 90% who develop immunity, but we need a better vaccine even in developed countries.
Estimates for herd immunity are between 20-80%.