How would you calculate bayesian probability on that percentage? Any takers?
Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
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Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#82290% among serious COVID-19 progression-susceptible population or in general population?
90% of the 94 Covid cases that had been confirmed within the pool of vaccinated participants of the study.
90% is the lower bound of the efficacy, not the expected or observed rate. The observed protection rate must have been higher.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#823Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well that settles it then. We’ll just wait for a few more years to see what the long term side effects are.
I know you say that in mockery, but I'd rather be in isolation for longer and have a better idea what the long term of this looks like. Most other vaccines have the same process.
This isn't like being a test pilot in an experimental rocket. This is like buying a 2021 Honda Civic. Is it different from the 2020 Civic? Yes. Could there be some unforeseen malfunction? It's not impossible. But this is not a bold new world of experimentation. It's a vaccine, with a tried and true development process and that has already been administered to tens of thousands of people (likely tens of millions over close to 12 months before a shot gets to your arm).
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#824Earlier quoted context omitted.
The Ebola vaccine required -80 C storage as well and they got it into literal war zones. It’s a difficult problem, but a solved one.
Ebola was localized. COVID-19 is not. I like your optimism, and what you said isn't incorrect about Ebola at the time, but I don't think it's correct about our current situation. How many locations globally have this level of refrigeration? Given that there would be high demand for it, wouldn't prices on any available refrigerators exceed what even the most altruistic companies and organizations could pay? This still…
There are warehouses extremely well equipped for this. I saw a recent documentary where they were preparing for such a vaccine.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#825Earlier quoted context omitted.
Scientists and the media, thus the general population. I don’t doubt politicians will follow tomorrow.
Seems suspect. Do they not trust Pfizer and Oxford University? Seems the best minds in the world are on this problem, and they feel confident.
Reading some comments myself it seems to be more akin to:
"Yes it is nice, but not perfect", citing the concerns of that testing isn't complete yet and the duration is quite short.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#826Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#827Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'd happily take a shot a year for a decade in return for getting rid of lockdown.
s/a decade/in perpetuity We'll almost certainly need an annual covid vaccination for the same reasons we get annual flu vaccinations - with our current medical technology we can neither rid the planet of the virus nor obtain permanent immunity.
We'll almost certainly need an annual covid vaccination
In fact we have no idea how long this vaccine or any other [of the experimental covid-19 vaccines] will last for. They've got projections out to at least a year, but uncertainty becomes too great after that. It may last quite a long time, we don't really know.
for the same reasons we get annual flu vaccinations
No. We get annual flu vaccinations because flu viruses mutate significantly and quickly, so we're always getting vaccinated against new threats. Not against threats that we've forgot how to defend against.
[edited to clarify that the uncertainty is around the experimental vaccines; for old standards, we do have a very good idea]
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#828Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#829Earlier quoted context omitted.
Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…
> Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. I am not sure this is true. At least some articles I read attribute the successes in many Asian countries to aggressive contact tracing and quarantining. You don't ask people kindly to self-isolate, you move them to hotels and quarantine them. You don't ask them to remember their contacts, you aggressively investigate them using every source of data available. I thi…
Asian and Italian strain were different covid strains.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#830Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is great and all, and I'm not against vaccinations, but is this safe long term? Am I the only one here who doesn't want to get inoculated in basically the first batch?
the people in the trial are the first batch. these vaccines are following all the standards we have set for vaccines just at an accelerated pace and with accelerated funding. i know a lot of people who are hesitant about this shot, but it does sound antivax to say you aren’t sure it’s safe id get this today if i could
I'm definitely not antivax. I've gotten pretty much every common vaccination. In my view there is a difference between antivax and a new drug or vaccine that has not been widely tested.