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Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#781

Post by weaksauce »

bufferoverflow wrote: post #305
lbeltrame wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The latest data (preprint, not peer reviewed etc etc) mention memory B and T cells up to 8 months after recovery from the illness. This means that an immunity of one year is probably likely. This would be probably enough to quench the spread, but not to eradicate the virus.

I think we can eradicate it by contact tracing. With 90% efficiency it will be extremely tough for the virus to spread. For any new cases you simply test everyone in the vicinity of the infected person. But I don't think even that will be necessary. 90% efficiency reduces R so much, it will probably die out on its own. The real problem is mutations that are not covered by the vaccine. If it mutates as efficiently as…

To continue this... I don't think the flu vaccine is nearly 90% effective. I am pretty sure the flu vaccines hover around 60-70% effective. A 90% effective vaccine would stop the spread drastically to the point where it might just stop it wholesale. in addition the virus envelope is so fragile that it won't stay in the environment for more than a few days compared to something like the norovirus that can last for a long time on surfaces(iirc) because of a lack of a fragile lipid enclosure.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#782

Post by ghthor »

just-juan-post wrote: post #759

For those who feel a sense of relief I would like to remind you that Joe Biden and the Democrats are the ones who put the fear into the American people. Over and over and over and over. Joe Biden, Kamala Harris Got a Big Social Media Boost from Indian Troll Farms https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-kamala-harris-got-big-soc... PS: Isn't it a strange coincidence that we haven't see an hourly deluge of covidtoes/long co…

This forum isnt the place to be posting this type of information, it will not be well received.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#783

Post by ghthor »

kumarvvr wrote: post #475
FrancisOfAssisi wrote: post #469

So Trump was right (again), after all!

Science has nothing to do with politics. Also, cherry picking one statement, from literally hundreds of false ones, does not make any one right . It just shows that if you throw a lot of stuff, something will eventually stick.

You're high if you think science has nothing to do with politics.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#784

Post by empthought »

samatman wrote: post #778
gizmo wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…

> Mutations aren't a serious concern. Because when viruses mutate it's the strains that are more infectious and less lethal that win out. If only it worked that way! It doesn't, of course. A random walk can lead anywhere in the adjacent landscape. That includes moving up in lethality without moving down in infectiousness. What you have written here is plausible-sounding nonsense; if it were true, the 1918 flu would n…

Thank you for pointing this out.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#785

Post by Thiez »

WanderPanda wrote: post #730
gizmo wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…

> Mutations aren't a serious concern. Because when viruses mutate it's the strains that are more infectious and less lethal that win out What if it has the contagiousness of covid but the long term lethality of hiv? The long term lethality would have low evolutionary pressure to be less harsh to its host as the implications only follow after many infectious years. Is there anything fundamentally prohibiting the emerg…

Virusses mutate all the time. What if a normal flu virus mutates and kills us all? There is no reason to believe that covid is more likely to become more lethal compared to any other type of virus.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#786

Post by zamalek »

jakozaur wrote: post #214

Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?

> Good: ~90% of individuals achieve immunity.

As far as I recall, the high R0 of COVID-19 meant that >90% was needed for herd immunity. You then also have to factor anti-vaxxers into the equation.

It's a good stop-gap for the 90% who develop immunity, but we need a better vaccine even in developed countries.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#787

Post by raducu »

gizmo wrote: post #372
bufferoverflow wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we can eradicate it by contact tracing. With 90% efficiency it will be extremely tough for the virus to spread. For any new cases you simply test everyone in the vicinity of the infected person. But I don't think even that will be necessary. 90% efficiency reduces R so much, it will probably die out on its own. The real problem is mutations that are not covered by the vaccine. If it mutates as efficiently as…

Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…

Covid would be over if everybody used a properly fitted respirator.

I stayed at home even before symptoms, I infected 3 adults and my daughter in my house.

It was only luck that the adults showed symptoms like myself on day 3 and day 3 was a Sunday and my test results came back that day.

Otherwise, they woul have infected others just like I infected them, before I showed any symptoms.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#788

Post by Animats »

jakozaur wrote: post #214

Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?

-80C is dry ice (frozen CO2) temperature. So you can carry vaccine vials around in a cooler with a block of dry ice. Pfizer has a dry ice shipping container good for 10 days. FedEx can ship that. Then the vaccine can be stored at refrigerator temperature for maybe 5 days. Dry Ice costs maybe $3/Kg.

The SF bay area has dry ice delivery.[1] Lagos, Nigeria has dry ice delivery.[2] Bismark, North Dakota has a dry ice plant.[3] It's not hard to get.

Coolers for holding items in dry ice are about $100 on Alibaba.[4]

This doesn't look like a big problem.

[1] https://bensdryice.com/

[2] https://www.businesslist.com.ng/company/256889/greatsmith-re...

[3] http://www.dryiceweb.com/Praxair/Bismarck_ND.htm

[4] https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Vaccine-Carrier-Biome...

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#789

Post by Animats »

lbeltrame wrote: post #271
jakozaur wrote: post #214

Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?

The latest data (preprint, not peer reviewed etc etc) mention memory B and T cells up to 8 months after recovery from the illness. This means that an immunity of one year is probably likely. This would be probably enough to quench the spread, but not to eradicate the virus.

Right, we're about 8 months from the first recovery, so that's what's known. As time goes on, that number may increase.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#790

Post by greenburger »

asdfman123 wrote: post #774
m3kw9 wrote: post #504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not so good: Safety data is for 2 months only

One point they made on NPR is that it's hard to imagine any sort of vaccine that would be as harmful as the virus itself, which is killing 1000 people per day.

The issue is that a vaccine would be given to billions of people, whereas the virus is only infecting hundreds of thousands per day. Because vaccines are given to healthy people that may never be exposed to the disease the bar for safety is different.
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