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No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

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Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#132
post #115
post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming this is a genuine question, thousands of businesses and lives have been irreparably destroyed. Suicide can take years to manifest after trauma. It's also worth noting that a lot of people have been temporarily propped up by government social programs, which will presumably end at some point. Once they do end, the destruction is no longer hideable and the people who have been made destitute by government mand…

There was more than "token" support for small businesses. There was Federal government support for maintaining employment and there were bank and commercial lease supports. In addition, the state government provided loans and direct funding to various industries. Remember that Australia has not had a financial recession for 25+ years. Recession for any reason causes bankruptcies which leads to those personal impacts.…

You seem to be missing the point. That support was inefficient because government action still crushed thousands of businesses despite the support available.

Some of these restaurants had $20,000/week expenses and the government was offering significantly less than that in support.

>But the lockdown has meant that our economy will be closer back to "normal" earlier than it would have been

That sounds like wild speculation. Thousands of businesses closed permanently. Sure, giant banks and huge corporations that were specifically bailed out by government will be more-or-less fine. But that family restaurant? They went out of business months ago.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-10/melbourne-second-coro...

But all that is beside the point, which was suicides from lockdown effects will be substantially higher than virus deaths currently, according to Australian Medical Association modelling. I don't think you attempted to refute that with any counter-evidence (beyond your speculation).

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#133
post #53

Melbourne resident here. We're feeling pretty relieved to be getting these results and excited to be tentatively emerging from nearly four months of fairly strict lockdown. Much is being made of the fact that back in August when Melbourne was reporting over 700 new cases on some days, UK and France were reporting similar new case numbers, yet we are now getting zeroes and those countries have out-of-control spread. A…

> ... vs the benefits of suppressing a virus that many consider to be not very serious. I haven't seen good polling numbers around this, but I suspect it's not actually 'many', but rather a highly vocal small number of people, blessed with hubris, ignorance, and/or partisan agendas. I appreciate that there's some significant impact to a lot of people, and that my world view is significantly skewed because I'm not in…

Sounds like you’ve gone to the argument of “this can affect fit and healthy people in other ways that we may not even know.”

It is clear that the death toll is overwhelmingly skewed toward the elderly. Many of whom died in the first wave as corona prob got into many nursing homes before we knew better. We are now very careful w nursing homes/ elderly, we might see cases go up but as long as you protect them the deaths/ hospitalizations shouldn’t show similar levels to spring 2020. I don’t think you can deny this, so pro-lockdown people are now mainly using this “it can affect young people” argument to avoid cognitive dissonance - I have yet to see proof. I only have seen an article that says there is lung damage after infection which diminishes over the course of weeks. This is what you would expect with any kind of damage but the article had a ridiculous title like “coronavirus may lead to long lasting damage.” Lastly, I see a lot of ambulances these days - it serves as a reminder to check myself. But we’re all probably pretty analytical here and you can’t justify a strict lockdown from a utilitarian standpoint.

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#134
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lockdown has a death toll. This is just fact. People delay preventative treatment, they get depressed, overweight, suicides skyrocket. In Melbourne in particular, there was a giant spike in 12 year olds getting prescribed serious anti-depressant medication. Four newborn babies died because the South Australian government did not want to risk flying them to Melbourne for treatment. Lockdown primarily harms young peopl…

The pandemic has a death toll. A lot of these things would've happened even without a lockdown, since if the pandemic goes badly enough, huge swaths of the population would've shut themselves at home to avoid risk of contagion. Also, the virus is clearly more dangerous than the lockdown: you have seen what happens when the lockdown is applied to the whole population, but you haven't yet seen what happens when the vir…

> The pandemic has a death toll.

This is important to repeat and add also add economic toll. People blame the death and economic toll on lockdowns or other mitigation measures, but the toll is from the pandemic itself.

Even if no state mitigation measures were implemented, there would still be a huge economic and mental health toll.

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Much is being made of the fact that back in August when Melbourne was reporting over 700 new cases on some days, UK and France were reporting similar new case numbers, yet we are now getting zeroes and those countries have out-of-control spread. Congrats on getting to the magic 0! I know it can seem weird that Europe didn't lock down over the summer, but here we mostly use Health care capacity, not active cases, as t…

I live in Vietnam. It is neither a small island nor on a remote corner of the planet. We have a population of 95,000,000 people -- substantially more than any single country in Europe -- and share land borders China, Cambodia, and Laos as well as being within trivial sailing distance of Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Hong Kong. We have had 0 cases for over 2 months. You should stop with the "it i…

What would you say is the reason Vietnam has faired so well?

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#136
post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By what mechanism does a lockdown ending in 2020 cause 30% spike in suicides in 2024?

Assuming this is a genuine question, thousands of businesses and lives have been irreparably destroyed. Suicide can take years to manifest after trauma. It's also worth noting that a lot of people have been temporarily propped up by government social programs, which will presumably end at some point. Once they do end, the destruction is no longer hideable and the people who have been made destitute by government mand…

> irreparably destroyed

Irreparably? Using restaurants is a terrible metric since most of those fail even in a booming economy. I think restaurants and hospitality will be one of the fastest areas to recover once people feel it's safe.

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#137
post #87
post #36

If you told six month ago me that we'd be treating people who are high risk of this disease the same as people with low risk I would have been in complete disbelief.

Yeah let's get all the young people infected, having one percent of that population die is fine right? Next, they'll surely never talk to the people at risk. Their grandparents can sit at home and be more bored to death and lonely than they usually already are and have young people, which are allowed out, to bring them food. Couldn't possibly go wrong. How do you picture different kinds of measures per risk group goi…

The IFR of Covid is closer to 0.5% than to 1%. That is something we are perfectly used to: For example, Australia had a death rate of 0.63% in 2019.[1] Of course having anyone die isn't "fine". But the death of less than 1% of the population is something we can tolerate, not some kind of disaster of unprecedented magnitude worth a lockdown causing damage we can't even foresee yet.

[1] https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/deaths-a...

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#139

Melbourne resident here. We're feeling pretty relieved to be getting these results and excited to be tentatively emerging from nearly four months of fairly strict lockdown. Much is being made of the fact that back in August when Melbourne was reporting over 700 new cases on some days, UK and France were reporting similar new case numbers, yet we are now getting zeroes and those countries have out-of-control spread. A…

> What isn't being talked about here

... is vitamin D, HNs favorite topic:

> Rates of deficiency were shown to be lower in summer (14%) and higher in winter (36%). There was little variation between the states and territories in summer, when deficiency levels were low across the country; ranging from 6% in Queensland to 19% in New South Wales. A divide was apparent in winter, with rates of vitamin D deficiency particularly high for those living in Victoria and ACT, where nearly one in every two people (49%) were vitamin D deficient in winter, compared with only 16% and 13% respectively in summer. In comparison, vitamin D deficiency remained relatively low in winter for those in Queensland and the Northern Territory.[10] Differences were also seen across each state or territory - vitamin D deficiency was more common among those living in major cities (27%) compared with those living in inner regional (16%), outer regional (13%) and remote areas (9%).[10]

https://wiki.cancer.org.au/skincancerstats/Vitamin_D#Vitamin...

(For non-Australians, Melbourne is the capital city of the state of Victoria.)

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#140
post #21
post #2

This is fantastic news. I do worry about the US though. As far as I can tell huge numbers of people are still treating this like it is nothing. I base this, very expertly, on the sheer number of large Halloween parties I was invited to tonight... and how people (aged 28-40) are still mocking those who won’t congregate with 50 randos in a house. It’s very perplexing. And on the ever-increasing infections and deaths. A…

Are you worried about Sweden too? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MljLpcD0VWM Deaths flat in case you were wondering: https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=sweden%20deaths%20coro...

Absolutely! I am worried about the entire world (for what my worry is worth). I simply currently live in the US, so it’s the only place I have significant first-hand knowledge of.

I in no way meant to imply that anywhere else was less deserving of worry.

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