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No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

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Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#81

Post by fiskfiskfisk »

luckylion wrote: post #62
Jedd wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point was that politicians that are incapable of managing this disease within their own borders would be happy to point to weather, as a way of abrogating responsibility. This claim is typically made without citation. If people that repeat this claim, asserting it as fact, don't have citations -- then that's a different but related problem. In Australia we got this under control through winter. Several states (Sou…

A point for Germany: the current outbreak is much stronger than the one in March, even though we didn't have obligatory masks in March (they've been in effect since April; few people had them before they became obligatory). We had very few cases during the (pretty warm) summer (in the county I currently live in, there were zero cases in June). March peaked at around 5.5k on a single day, October peaked at ~13k with m…

There were no real testing infrastructure in March. Everything was an unknown, and most people didn't get tested unless they showed serious symptoms and were close to hospitalization.

The current assumption in Norway, based on testing and WHO guidelines) are that we detect about 1/2 of the active cases through testing now, compared to 1/10 back in March. Applied to your numbers, the current outbreak in Germany is about a fifth of what it was back in March.

Be careful about assuming the numbers represent the same thing over time and between countries; in general the ratio of positive cases compared to the number of tests has changed a lot during the last eight months.

Some of the reports from the Norwegian health authorities has explicit notes about where reporting and testing criteria changed during the timeline.

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#82

Post by shard972 »

markdown wrote: post #75
m0zg wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've only postponed the inevitable though. Virus is gonna virus - it's not going anywhere, ever. I'm not downplaying. I really hope you've used this time to prepare and didn't just sit on your behind hoping it'd go away.

> You've only postponed the inevitable though. You mean "only" given most people another year or two with their elderly?

Some lost the chance during the lockdown mate

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#84

Post by olalonde »

tomhoward wrote: post #15

Melbourne resident here. We're feeling pretty relieved to be getting these results and excited to be tentatively emerging from nearly four months of fairly strict lockdown. Much is being made of the fact that back in August when Melbourne was reporting over 700 new cases on some days, UK and France were reporting similar new case numbers, yet we are now getting zeroes and those countries have out-of-control spread. A…

How strict was the lockdown in practice? What were the rules?

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#85

Post by viraptor »

olalonde wrote: post #84
tomhoward wrote: post #15

Melbourne resident here. We're feeling pretty relieved to be getting these results and excited to be tentatively emerging from nearly four months of fairly strict lockdown. Much is being made of the fact that back in August when Melbourne was reporting over 700 new cases on some days, UK and France were reporting similar new case numbers, yet we are now getting zeroes and those countries have out-of-control spread. A…

How strict was the lockdown in practice? What were the rules?

Check the lockdown steps here https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-06/coronavirus-explainer...

When the roadmap was published the first step of lockdown relaxing was:

> Residents will need to stay within 5 kilometres of their homes and will still only be able to leave home for shopping, exercise, care-giving purposes or permitted work.

> The city's night curfew starts at 9:00pm rather than 8:00pm, and residents can exercise for up to two hours a day, up from one hour.

Pretty strict, but I think the clear steps and threshold being announced were a brilliant approach.

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#86

Post by L-four »

olalonde wrote: post #84
tomhoward wrote: post #15

Melbourne resident here. We're feeling pretty relieved to be getting these results and excited to be tentatively emerging from nearly four months of fairly strict lockdown. Much is being made of the fact that back in August when Melbourne was reporting over 700 new cases on some days, UK and France were reporting similar new case numbers, yet we are now getting zeroes and those countries have out-of-control spread. A…

How strict was the lockdown in practice? What were the rules?

Can only leave house for work, 1 person per house for food or other necessities 1 once per day, 1 hour exercise max 5km from home, must work from home is possible, can't leave Metro area without valid reason and must wear a musk in public.

It changes every week or so depending on the cases.

We'll be able to meet with the relatives hopefully after the 9th if everything goes well.

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#87

Post by Aachen »

drcross wrote: post #36

If you told six month ago me that we'd be treating people who are high risk of this disease the same as people with low risk I would have been in complete disbelief.

Yeah let's get all the young people infected, having one percent of that population die is fine right? Next, they'll surely never talk to the people at risk. Their grandparents can sit at home and be more bored to death and lonely than they usually already are and have young people, which are allowed out, to bring them food. Couldn't possibly go wrong.

How do you picture different kinds of measures per risk group going? People can already choose to isolate more, disinfect more, keep distance more, etc. if they find themselves at risk. The compulsory measures are a bare minimum to prevent unnecessary deaths and keep the long term impact to a minimum. You can find a new job next year and live on government benefits in the meantime (or is the worst-case scenario for you not unemployment and boredom? Well, infecting loved ones would be worse in these times but you don't seem to find that very worrying) but if you're one of today's corona deaths you can't find another life.

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#88

Post by Lewton »

rscho wrote: post #45
drcross wrote: post #36

If you told six month ago me that we'd be treating people who are high risk of this disease the same as people with low risk I would have been in complete disbelief.

What's unbelievable is that we started this pandemic by treating people as if we knew nothing not only about this virus, but also by throwing all ARDS experience to the trash. I will remember our experts telling us to intubate early and withhold steroids for a very long time. We killed a lot of people because a minority wanted to show off. This is depressing.

Experts didn't suggest withholding steroids just because they wanted to show off. Doctors in the field withheld steroids because the steroids they were giving patients with covid-19 was actively killing them. It took a long time to find out what steroids could safely be used for treatment

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#89

Post by luckylion »

fiskfiskfisk wrote: post #81
luckylion wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A point for Germany: the current outbreak is much stronger than the one in March, even though we didn't have obligatory masks in March (they've been in effect since April; few people had them before they became obligatory). We had very few cases during the (pretty warm) summer (in the county I currently live in, there were zero cases in June). March peaked at around 5.5k on a single day, October peaked at ~13k with m…

There were no real testing infrastructure in March. Everything was an unknown, and most people didn't get tested unless they showed serious symptoms and were close to hospitalization. The current assumption in Norway, based on testing and WHO guidelines) are that we detect about 1/2 of the active cases through testing now, compared to 1/10 back in March. Applied to your numbers, the current outbreak in Germany is abo…

Good point, testing might be a large factor. That would be very good news with regards to the danger of Covid-19, since it would lower the actual death rate massively.

From what I understand the current daily test capacity for Germany is about twice as large as it was in April. I do believe that they're still only testing those who exhibit symptoms or have been in contact with somebody who tested positive.

Re: No new locally-acquired coronavirus cases in Australia yesterday

#90

Post by anoncake »

Svip wrote: post #17
m0zg wrote: post #13

Another thing that's helping Australia is that they're heading into summer. Normalized by population the worst non-tiny (10M+) countries to be right now seem to be France, Italy, Belgium and Poland. And it'd be even worse in France, Italy and Poland in terms of new cases if they had the kind of testing throughput the US has been able to muster (1.24M tests a day). Belgium has comparable normalized test throughput. As…

Only Belgium of those seems to rank worse than USA for cases/pop. Missing from your list seems to be Israel and Czech Republic (unless your limit for non-tiny country is 11 million). But even below USA, before we get to France, Italy or Poland; Peru, Spain, Chile, Brazil, Argentina and Colombia ranks in before. And most of these countries are testing at lower rates than France.

Do you mean infections/pop? Cases/pop is irrelevant, just like the CFR is.
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