71–80 of 284 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It makes sense that winter makes things worse, but if weather were the only factor, why is South America seeing far more cases than Australia?
The population of South America is more than 15 times larger.
[0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deat...
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Lockdown has a death toll. This is just fact. People delay preventative treatment, they get depressed, overweight, suicides skyrocket. In Melbourne in particular, there was a giant spike in 12 year olds getting prescribed serious anti-depressant medication. Four newborn babies died because the South Australian government did not want to risk flying them to Melbourne for treatment. Lockdown primarily harms young peopl…
> Lockdown has a death toll. This is just fact. I steeled myself to read this post in the most charitable possible light. Yes, lockdown most likely has some death toll. But the specific points you're making are very dubious and also very recognisable as the effect of consuming specific kinds of media. Firstly, the point about "not getting as much exercise" is frustrating. Back when we didn't have data on this, it was…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Lockdown has a death toll. This is just fact. People delay preventative treatment, they get depressed, overweight, suicides skyrocket. In Melbourne in particular, there was a giant spike in 12 year olds getting prescribed serious anti-depressant medication. Four newborn babies died because the South Australian government did not want to risk flying them to Melbourne for treatment. Lockdown primarily harms young peopl…
> Lockdown has a death toll. This is just fact. I steeled myself to read this post in the most charitable possible light. Yes, lockdown most likely has some death toll. But the specific points you're making are very dubious and also very recognisable as the effect of consuming specific kinds of media. Firstly, the point about "not getting as much exercise" is frustrating. Back when we didn't have data on this, it was…
I specifically said Australia, and your claim is incorrect according to the Australian Medical Association which forecasts 750-1,000 additional suicides for 5 years. [1] I can't find my original source for that figure but the AMA source still proves my point.
>https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7312512
Belgium did not have a Melbourne-tier lockdown at any stage. Why would it be comparable?
>But the specific points you're making are very dubious and also very recognisable as the effect of consuming specific kinds of media.
Ah yes, "specific kinds of media" like the Australian Medical Association. Those darned far right Murdoch-leaning doctors.
Your own source proves my point in fact. [2]
>"We still think we're going to see, over the course of a 12-month period … and then subsequent years, in the order of 30 per cent increase [in] suicide rates," he said.
30% of 3,048 is 914. 5 years of that is 4,572 additional suicides. I got the 5 years data point from the Australian Medical Association. [1]
[1] https://ama.com.au/media/joint-statement-covid-19-impact-lik...
[2] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-27/no-spike-in-suicide-r...
Another thing that's helping Australia is that they're heading into summer. Normalized by population the worst non-tiny (10M+) countries to be right now seem to be France, Italy, Belgium and Poland. And it'd be even worse in France, Italy and Poland in terms of new cases if they had the kind of testing throughput the US has been able to muster (1.24M tests a day). Belgium has comparable normalized test throughput. As…
On a side note are there any sites that lists country level data about cases per day, normalised to population density?
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I just came out of months of hard lockdown in Melbourne. Everyone wants to downplay our results. But we went hard and obeyed the rules. I really do think we acted exceptionally as the public. I see what other places with outbreaks are doing, and it seems very lax.
You've only postponed the inevitable though. Virus is gonna virus - it's not going anywhere, ever. I'm not downplaying. I really hope you've used this time to prepare and didn't just sit on your behind hoping it'd go away.
You mean "only" given most people another year or two with their elderly?
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I just came out of months of hard lockdown in Melbourne. Everyone wants to downplay our results. But we went hard and obeyed the rules. I really do think we acted exceptionally as the public. I see what other places with outbreaks are doing, and it seems very lax.
You've only postponed the inevitable though. Virus is gonna virus - it's not going anywhere, ever. I'm not downplaying. I really hope you've used this time to prepare and didn't just sit on your behind hoping it'd go away.
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Doesn't "the west" include Australia? I would think Australia and New Zealand count, and they've done a pretty good job. Canada has done a relatively poor job by international standards, but still much better than the US and the UK, who have both been roundly criticized in the Anglosphere. Although parts of continental Europe are struggling, there are others that have done okay - Norway and Finland, for example. Outs…
I’m a biased New Zealander - not only the above, but both New Zealand and Australia have controlled outbreaks twice. After round one there were breaches (presumably that is the cause in NZ, the origin has not been found) and then new lockdowns followed by control/eradication. Throwing up your hands and claiming it can’t be controlled in the west for some reason is a cop out and is also incorrect.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Lockdown has a death toll. This is just fact. People delay preventative treatment, they get depressed, overweight, suicides skyrocket. In Melbourne in particular, there was a giant spike in 12 year olds getting prescribed serious anti-depressant medication. Four newborn babies died because the South Australian government did not want to risk flying them to Melbourne for treatment. Lockdown primarily harms young peopl…
where did you get the 4,000-7,000 figure? There were 3,048 suicides in Australia in 2018[1]. Data from the Victorian coroner shows that there's been roughly the same number of suicides in the state this year up to August 27 as last year(466 this year vs. 468 last year)[2]. [1] https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-health/suicide-an... [2] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-27/no-spike-in-suicide-r...
>"We still think we're going to see, over the course of a 12-month period … and then subsequent years, in the order of 30 per cent increase [in] suicide rates," he said.
30% of 3,048 is 914. 5 years of that is 4,572 additional suicides. I got the 5 years data point from the Australian Medical Association. [1]
[1] https://ama.com.au/media/joint-statement-covid-19-impact-lik...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You've only postponed the inevitable though. Virus is gonna virus - it's not going anywhere, ever. I'm not downplaying. I really hope you've used this time to prepare and didn't just sit on your behind hoping it'd go away.
It's not going away, we are actively getting rid of it.
No you aren't. There's no "getting rid of it". Spanish Flu (!) is still with us. It just kinda fizzled out after just about everyone got it over the course of 2+ years, but the virus still endemic, over a hundred years later.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Lockdown has a death toll. This is just fact. People delay preventative treatment, they get depressed, overweight, suicides skyrocket. In Melbourne in particular, there was a giant spike in 12 year olds getting prescribed serious anti-depressant medication. Four newborn babies died because the South Australian government did not want to risk flying them to Melbourne for treatment. Lockdown primarily harms young peopl…
> Lockdown has a death toll. This is just fact. I steeled myself to read this post in the most charitable possible light. Yes, lockdown most likely has some death toll. But the specific points you're making are very dubious and also very recognisable as the effect of consuming specific kinds of media. Firstly, the point about "not getting as much exercise" is frustrating. Back when we didn't have data on this, it was…
I find that an unnecessary slight. Since that topic is very taboo, you won't be able to read about it in mainstream media sources, but only in opposition sources and professional journals. Attacking it on those grounds is weak.
It would be extremely surprising if a multi-month lockdown didn't have a death toll, "most likely" makes it sound like that's probable but remains to be seen. I don't think that's a reasonable position given all we know about the cost of policies, mental health and economic depression.
The argument shouldn't be "lockdown is painless" (because it obviously isn't), it has to be "no lockdown is more painful". We won't be able to tell whether it's true for quite some time, but there's a good argument for erring on the side of caution.