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Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

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Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#281

Post by mancerayder »

mancerayder wrote: post #271
jeffbee wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Businesses and residents are leaving both cities are a cadence unlike anything we've seen in decades There is no data underlying this statement whatsoever.

https://www.syracuse.com/state/2020/08/new-york-named-worst-...

That was literally the first links of dozens. I can pull articles from NYT, Crain's, CNBC, you name it, all showing the trend. The budget deficit alone should suffice. The fact that you ascribe a "political agenda" and use the phrase "show your ass" - what is this supposed to mean, that we discovered the enemy in the room? Don't answer that, I don't want to know.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#282

Post by rightbyte »

ComputerGuru wrote: post #210
dguaraglia wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not uncommon. Our office in North Beach was a 12-month deal. In fact, contracts tend to be longer (24 months or so).

I think that was the point. 12 months is atypically short.

Of leases 24 months long the average lease should be 12 months in right now (given steady state). I.e half of them expire in a year. Lets say that they realised this summer that things will be different then the effect should gradually start to show almost immediately.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#283

Post by paul_f »

albacur wrote: post #137
digitaltrees wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to be hinting at interesting things here but its hard to follow, the writing feels like a disjointed short hand with unstated context that requires experience to unpack. What are "those empty Walgreens shelves", not having been there I don't know what you mean. Further, SF was not unique in experiencing that. I experienced it in North Carolina and Utah. What do you mean "squalor that is not that real?", what…

It might require the added context of living here. San Francisco has one of the highest property crime rates in the United States [1], and Walgreens is a popular target of shoplifters, who regularly clear out entire shelves of merchandise. The company hasn't come out and said it, but some believe that rampant shoplifting is a reason why eight Walgreens locations in the city have been permanently closed [2]. [1] https…

Proposition 47 essentially decriminalized shoplifting. Californians literally voted for this petty crime wave. As a Florida resident, all I can say is, y'all have fun with that

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#284

Post by jeffbee »

mancerayder wrote: post #281
mancerayder wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.syracuse.com/state/2020/08/new-york-named-worst-...

That was literally the first links of dozens. I can pull articles from NYT, Crain's, CNBC, you name it, all showing the trend. The budget deficit alone should suffice. The fact that you ascribe a "political agenda" and use the phrase "show your ass" - what is this supposed to mean, that we discovered the enemy in the room? Don't answer that, I don't want to know.

I don't want dozens of links to Crain's. I want primary data that shows the current net domestic migration out of New York (or SF, you pick) is unprecedented in decades, which is what you said.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#285

Post by arkis22 »

jeffbee wrote: post #279
arkis22 wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yes. you are surely more correct that covid has had zero effect on net domestic migration out of SF. a simple google search shows figures. there are lots. rent data is the simplest.

So, you don't have any data? Just checking that we're in total agreement here. This is exactly why I've long said that the only course that should be required of every college major (or ideally every high school graduate) is basic accounting. The number of things in a system is the cumulative result of all inflows and outflows. The population of a city can fall without any kind of change in the outflow process. By th…

easy. I googled the population increase during a normal workday.

During regular Monday - Friday business hours, the city's population surges by at least 20 percent -- or more than 160,000 people. https://www.kqed.org/lowdown/11327/interactive-how-san-franc...

that number could be wrong. but that 20% beats your 4% by a comfy margin. and that 20% has special impact on the city center that employs many service workers. those people are no longer commuting. if they're no longer commuting, then prices of apartments close to jobs will lose value. then rents will fall. rents are hard data that you apparently refuse to google.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#286

Post by sjg007 »

chrismcb wrote: post #97
sjg007 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty easy solution on November 3rd. Vote Democrat down ticket.

Democrats are part of the problem. The solution isn't to vote democrat or republican, it is to vote for people that care. Term limits would go a long way to solving that problem.

Nah.. if you want to get out of a depression or recession hire a Democrat. It’s a fact supported by the data.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#287

Post by refurb »

andrewxdiamond wrote: post #3

If this trend continues, I wonder if these office spaces can be converted to apartments. SF is in desperate need of living space

SF is in desperate need of living space

Is this still true? Rents are plummeting because of people leaving. Plenty of apartments for rent right now. No need to convert commercial space.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#289

Post by asiachick »

Swizec wrote: post #219
meddlepal wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like comments like this often lack perspective. Upstate NY, especially Buffalo and Rochester have plenty of things to do in them and far more than five restaurants. It strikes a nerve with me because in Massachusetts a similar sentiment is expressed by Boston-Cambridge folks about Lowell, Worcester, and other periphery cities. Its simply mot true that these places are devoid of culture snd cuisine and in the a…

As someone who moved from a large small city (300k residents, 100k students, 300k daily commuters) to San Francisco ... yeah the density is totally worth it. Back home we had restaurants and cuisine and all that. It wasn’t a wasteland. But SF has more high quality restaurants within a 20min walk of my apartment than my hometown had in total. Average restaurant quality is higher too. Just because there’s more competit…

The way you feel about SF vs your 300k residents town is how I feel about Tokyo vs SF. When I'm in SF it's sad how few choices I have and how bad most of them are. And all those asian restaurants you mention are not remotely "good". You can find a few descent asian restaurants in the south bay like say Fremont but LA does them all significantly better and in far higher quantity

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#290

Post by pb7 »

nrp wrote: post #17
andrewxdiamond wrote: post #3

If this trend continues, I wonder if these office spaces can be converted to apartments. SF is in desperate need of living space

It has actually happened before in San Francisco. 100 Van Ness was reskinned and renovated into a 400+ unit apartment building from its previous use as an office tower: https://socketsite.com/archives/tag/100-van-ness

They did a good job too. It’s a lovely building in my opinion.
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