Earlier quoted context omitted.
Businesses and residents are leaving both cities are a cadence unlike anything we've seen in decades. My point is singular: are mayorships concerned with progressive issues the best qualified to stem that tide? The numbers speak for themselves in terms of residents (tax revenue) and businesses (tax revenue and jobs). But there's glee in these comments. People are saying things like, who cares about billionnaires and…
> Businesses and residents are leaving both cities are a cadence unlike anything we've seen in decades There is no data underlying this statement whatsoever.
Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F
271–280 of 527 posts
Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F
#272Earlier quoted context omitted.
Thankfully you can do sound isolation without concrete. If they do that or want to save money is a different topic I guess.
Not for low frequencies. You simply need mass for that, no way around it.
Is mass the only way? The building I worked in had problems due to us transmitting a lot of noise up concrete columns, and it was solved by isolating the source from the columns. Rubber feet were used to separate the noisey equipment from the floor.
So couldn’t you isolate the noise with false ceilings and walls that are constructed to minimise transmissions?
Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F
#273Earlier quoted context omitted.
Point taken, but I don't think you're taking into account the monumental impact of COVID-19. We've never had such a large, immediate, and impactful shift to work culture. Working remote was still a niche idea at the beginning of 2020, now it's ubiquitous. That has never happened before.
I think the shift to remote work is temporary. There will almost certainly be a relatively large crash in commercial real estate, but it will recover, probably within a year or maybe two.
> but it will recover, probably within a year or maybe two.
Doesn’t this require the pandemic to be gone? I hope it is, but that’s one hell of a condition.
Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F
#274Earlier quoted context omitted.
Point taken, but I don't think you're taking into account the monumental impact of COVID-19. We've never had such a large, immediate, and impactful shift to work culture. Working remote was still a niche idea at the beginning of 2020, now it's ubiquitous. That has never happened before.
I think the shift to remote work is temporary. There will almost certainly be a relatively large crash in commercial real estate, but it will recover, probably within a year or maybe two.
It doesn't seem that way. Technology is making it more and more possible, companies like Dropbox, which have never supported remote work, are even shifting over.
Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F
#275Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is a mass exodus of people from HCOL cities as jobs go virtual as well as a massive amount of office downsizing. Residential real estate may be okay in the cities receiving this exodus in the South, Midwest, Texas, Idaho, etc. but as for HCOL cities I’m just not sure. There may be enough demand to at least cushion it. Commercial will definitely be a bloodbath of epic proportions, especially in formerly hot mark…
Housing prices are actually already trending back upward in the bay area. I don't think there will really be that much of an exodus. Your company might let you retain most of your salary post-relocation but once you change jobs you'll have far fewer prospects. Also the internet doesn't help with timezone differences.
The exodus is real. The Pinterest lease cancellation was the bellwether.
Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F
#276A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).
At risk of extreme naivety, why do failed real estate investments merit Fed support and attention? I thought they were just for maintaining a sound dollar and liquidity and the financial system, not charity for real estate kings.
Because after 2008 the fed became one of the largest landowners in the country and by proxy have a vested interest in propping it up.
Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F
#277Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Businesses and residents are leaving both cities are a cadence unlike anything we've seen in decades There is no data underlying this statement whatsoever.
https://www.syracuse.com/state/2020/08/new-york-named-worst-...
So, no data at all? I think you've really shown your whole ass to everyone by citing an ALEC position paper. ALEC has rated California as having either the #1 or #2 "worst business climate" in America every year it has published it's rankings, which are merely propaganda for a certain political viewpoint. ALEC's "Rich States, Poor States" paper has been reporting from Oppositeland for decades.
https://www.gradingstates.org/alecs-rich-states-poor-states/...
Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F
#278A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).
The other week I was on real estate sites and I saw a bunch of "apartments" in SOMA that just looked like offices with some hastily slapped on anemities, as if there was some "wink wink nudge nudge" going on and they had to call the place an "apartment" for some city ordinance but everyone knew it was an office. However, I realized it was exactly the opposite. These people were taking their office spaces and desperat…
I hope this happens in London (and other cities where housing is ridiculous).
Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F
#279Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you are right then it would by indicated by some data I could read, yes? Show me anything which indicates that the net domestic migration out of SF (proper or metro area) has increased during 2020.
yes. you are surely more correct that covid has had zero effect on net domestic migration out of SF. a simple google search shows figures. there are lots. rent data is the simplest.
So, you don't have any data? Just checking that we're in total agreement here.
This is exactly why I've long said that the only course that should be required of every college major (or ideally every high school graduate) is basic accounting. The number of things in a system is the cumulative result of all inflows and outflows. The population of a city can fall without any kind of change in the outflow process. By the way population flows are both domestic and international. If you stop foreign in-migration but you don't touch domestic out-migration then the population will decline.
By the way SF's population also declined 2000-2009 and sequentially in each of 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005. So unless you have real data showing SF population already fell more than 4%, I also question "unseen in decades".
Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F
#280A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).
I’d she’s based in SF why didn’t she contact the SF Fed?