Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F • Hacker News Board

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#51

Post by nostromo » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:12 PM UTC

sebmellen wrote: post #38

nostromo wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, we need at least another 6 trillion. Maybe 20 trillion. Why stop there? We should quadruple the money supply maybe, we need to protect commercial real estate investors, after all. ... and then in 2021 we can all scratch our heads and wonder why income inequality is worse than ever, and despite all this spending, we didn't even make an appreciable dent in the impact of Covid-19 on public health.

I think a quote from Bernie Sanders encapsulates the problem: "in the US, we have socialism for the rich, and rugged individualism for the poor". Corporate lobbyists know the government is a cash cow, and they take advantage of this. They will always get relief if they ask for it. Direct payments are the opposite of this.

When you dramatically expand the money supply you make the rich richer. It doesn't matter how the money is distributed, it tends to inflate asset prices, and the people who own the most assets (the rich) reap the rewards in the end.

If you wanted to stop that, you'd have to actually pay for your spending, perhaps by implement some sort of wealth tax or dramatically increasing income taxes. Of course, nobody wants to increase taxes, so we just keep printing money to try and fix every problem.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#52

Post by Aeolun » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:13 PM UTC

mancerayder wrote: post #42

Are Progressive mayorships in places like SF and New York the right mentality at the right time when it's an economic catastrophe to be averted? The Mayor of NYC said a few days ago, 'Midtown is not the center of the universe' when asked about sudden new squalor and economic catastrophe. Unfortunately it is the center of jobs for the region. Is SF run like this as well?

> sudden new squalor and economic catastrophe

Billionaires suddenly losing their tenants is now economic catastrophe?

Is this another variant of ‘too big to fail’?

Those buildings won’t be going anywhere regardless of anything else.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#53

Post by api » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:14 PM UTC

sebmellen wrote: post #2

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

There is a mass exodus of people from HCOL cities as jobs go virtual as well as a massive amount of office downsizing.

Residential real estate may be okay in the cities receiving this exodus in the South, Midwest, Texas, Idaho, etc. but as for HCOL cities I’m just not sure. There may be enough demand to at least cushion it.

Commercial will definitely be a bloodbath of epic proportions, especially in formerly hot markets.

Edit: too early for good stats but here are some cities that seem to be receiving HCOL expats as determined by the highly scientific process of observing anecdotes:

Phoenix, Santa Fe, Boise, Denver, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Chicago... I’m sure that list is not exhaustive. Those are just some I have seen.

Those vary in terms of how not-HCOL they are but all of them are much less expensive than California, NYC, or the Seattle area. Much better places to live if you don’t have to live somewhere with $500k to $1.5m “starter homes” and other absurdities. Now that we are discovering that we can actually use this Internet thing, good riddance to that madness.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#54

Post by dasil003 » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:15 PM UTC

meerita wrote: post #23

sebmellen wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lack of continued large-scale stimulus is tragic. We need a strong stimulus package with direct monetary relief (one $1200 check is not enough), and a program of structured financial relief / rent forgiveness. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening.

Keynesian economy never worked. Redistributing money will just make it worthless.

This is too reductive and unclear what you are saying.

If we do no redistribution and simply allow people to starve in the streets then revolution is coming.

On the other hand, if we prioritize helping people, and stop propping up failing businesses then we can maintain social stability long enough for the economy to restructure according to natural economic forces.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#55

Post by redisman » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:15 PM UTC

sebmellen wrote: post #22

OpticalWindows wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We should be reciving our 3rd and onto our 4th right now.

Really, it's an infrastructure problem. We don't have direct payment rails set up for something like UBI, and the political will to build this infrastructure is next to zero. Most of the companies receiving relief were badly managed before the pandemic, and they should be allowed to fail. But it's very hard to structure relief in a fair and effective way.

> Really, it's an infrastructure problem.

No it's not. Seemed to work fine in July didn't it? It's obviously a political problem. Why can't we just use the same mechanism again?

edit: Maybe you're talking about the business/paycheck replacement relief and not the individual checks like the parent was?

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#56

Post by grey-area » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:15 PM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #26

sebmellen wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lack of continued large-scale stimulus is tragic. We need a strong stimulus package with direct monetary relief (one $1200 check is not enough), and a program of structured financial relief / rent forgiveness. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening.

Yes, we need at least another 6 trillion. Maybe 20 trillion. Why stop there? We should quadruple the money supply maybe, we need to protect commercial real estate investors, after all. ... and then in 2021 we can all scratch our heads and wonder why income inequality is worse than ever, and despite all this spending, we didn't even make an appreciable dent in the impact of Covid-19 on public health.

Monetary stimulus (QE, Low interest rates) is not fiscal stimulus (spending). Maybe we need to do a lot less buying assets, and a bit more spending on people and jobs. The parent is recommending the latter (spending), not the former.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#57

Post by InTheArena » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:15 PM UTC

I live in a state where we are suddenly inundated with California’s refugees, fleeing the state now that they don’t have to physically live there. Reasonable taxes, a much less stressful work-life balance, bigger homes all make it very appealing to ditch the once0golden state.

Our company has decided not to reopen a majority of it’s office space. Ironically, the Bay Area office is remaining open while other offices are being closed, but even there it will be a shadow of it’s former self

I would like local and federal governments to come up with a plan for the inevitable bail out that transforms some of this space into more livable space, more community access, and more on-demand office space.

Apple’s HQ has turned into the worlds largest set piece for a iPhone ad.

San Fran is going to come out of COVID dramatically weaker. That’s been inevitable for a while, the pandemic just accelerated it.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#58

Post by quickthrower2 » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:16 PM UTC

sebmellen wrote: post #12

OpticalWindows wrote: post #5

We haven't even seen the extent of the depression yet. Combined with congressional inaction on social spending a lot of people are going to be in very deep finanical issues. This is a systemic problem that we needed fixed 3 months ago.

The lack of continued large-scale stimulus is tragic. We need a strong stimulus package with direct monetary relief (one $1200 check is not enough), and a program of structured financial relief / rent forgiveness. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening.

Where does that money come from? QE & more government debt?

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#59

Post by Aeolun » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:17 PM UTC

diebeforei485 wrote: post #7

andrewxdiamond wrote: post #3

If this trend continues, I wonder if these office spaces can be converted to apartments. SF is in desperate need of living space

Many of them can't because they don't have sufficient plumbing everywhere (apartments would have far more bathrooms and kitchens) and most buildings can't be retrofitted. Plus, land-use laws would have to change, which is also extremely difficult.

> extremely difficult

Right up until 50% of the city center is empty. You’ll see those laws changing real soon.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#60

Post by digitaltrees » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:17 PM UTC

meerita wrote: post #23

sebmellen wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lack of continued large-scale stimulus is tragic. We need a strong stimulus package with direct monetary relief (one $1200 check is not enough), and a program of structured financial relief / rent forgiveness. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening.

Keynesian economy never worked. Redistributing money will just make it worthless.

In an economy with 80% consumer spending, your assertion should be supported because it is fundamentally at odds with the economic context and make up of economic activity.

Supporting consumers obviously worked this year, the fact that a 30% drop in economic activity has been as mild systematically as it has is direct counter evidence to your statement.