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Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

socketsite.com

11–20 of 527 posts

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#11

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

Why will leases be terminating in Q2 2021 in particular?

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#12

We haven't even seen the extent of the depression yet. Combined with congressional inaction on social spending a lot of people are going to be in very deep finanical issues. This is a systemic problem that we needed fixed 3 months ago.

The lack of continued large-scale stimulus is tragic. We need a strong stimulus package with direct monetary relief (one $1200 check is not enough), and a program of structured financial relief / rent forgiveness. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#13

If this trend continues, I wonder if these office spaces can be converted to apartments. SF is in desperate need of living space

Good idea but sadly impossible for San Francisco because San Francisco cannot even convert places that are zoned for housing into housing.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#14

In other news, water is wet. Is it surprising to people who are working from home, that the office they used to work in and cannot yet return to is now vacant? People have been calling the collapse of San Francisco since the gold rush. It's clearly had its ups and downs, but the overall trend is clear too.

I guess this number doesn't include vacant as in barely anyone actually using the office space but still leased. In that case 14% vacancy rate sounds low.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#15

If this trend continues, I wonder if these office spaces can be converted to apartments. SF is in desperate need of living space

Ive been told in a lot if cases this is virtually impossible due to cost and structural constraints of office construction vs residential... notably ceiling heights, plumbing and floor plans are poorly designed for residential conversion.

Im suddenly having a vision of a corporate housing commune. Starting a hydroponics lab in the middle of office space /s

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#16

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

Why will leases be terminating in Q2 2021 in particular?

This is mainly a concern for one year leases that were renewed this March/April/May, which won't be renewed in 2021. There are many companies which budgeted for a few weeks or months of work from home, now they're transitioning permanently and the office space they were using is no longer needed.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#17

If this trend continues, I wonder if these office spaces can be converted to apartments. SF is in desperate need of living space

It has actually happened before in San Francisco. 100 Van Ness was reskinned and renovated into a 400+ unit apartment building from its previous use as an office tower: https://socketsite.com/archives/tag/100-van-ness

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#18

We haven't even seen the extent of the depression yet. Combined with congressional inaction on social spending a lot of people are going to be in very deep finanical issues. This is a systemic problem that we needed fixed 3 months ago.

The lack of continued large-scale stimulus is tragic. We need a strong stimulus package with direct monetary relief (one $1200 check is not enough), and a program of structured financial relief / rent forgiveness. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening.

We should be reciving our 3rd and onto our 4th right now.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#19

If this trend continues, I wonder if these office spaces can be converted to apartments. SF is in desperate need of living space

Is this the answer though? I don't think the current is the norm. Wfh for many is unsuitable.

It's a temporary shift and things will balance out in a few years.

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