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Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

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251–260 of 527 posts

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#251
post #143

For those that think this is the end of San Francisco, take a deep breath. The empty office space and worries about expiring leases only applies to companies that can't work remote. SF has a huge service industry, swaths of culture, and some pretty nice weather. A bunch of chair warmers and button pushers moved to Tahoe or Mazzula, so what? It is nice to have a huge house and some land, but city living is are a trade…

Eras like this are about survivors. Anyone who was here in 2009 would prefer that era to dot-com 1999 or FAANG 2019. So as far as they’re concerned - faster, please. Consider this a test whether you are a Californian or San Franciscan or someone from somewhere else here to rake in the google dollars. If the latter, I’m sorry your demands were not accomodated. Enjoy the farm in upstate NY or the frowns you get in Taho…

>or the frowns you get in Tahoe or Austin

Austinite here who moved from New York, and previously from California. People actually talk to you out here in general and have been nothing but pleasant. There's also far less of a homeless issue and you can actually buy a house with a low six figure salary. Austin is great.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#252
post #194

I live in a state where we are suddenly inundated with California’s refugees, fleeing the state now that they don’t have to physically live there. Reasonable taxes, a much less stressful work-life balance, bigger homes all make it very appealing to ditch the once0golden state. Our company has decided not to reopen a majority of it’s office space. Ironically, the Bay Area office is remaining open while other offices a…

I can't help but think this take is projecting a bit too much. Inundated? How so? What are you seeing? Tax benefits, work-life balance and bigger homes? Really, you can see these changes in the last 6 months of a pandemic? I could be wrong but I don't think the majority of employers are letting employees change states (and state taxes). WFH does not mean work from anywhere, especially tax-wise. This all sounds plausi…

Not OP, but I know three different families who are actively visiting other states to decide where to live next because they so loathe Newsom and the California governance writ large. They never liked it, but the wildfires, pandemic response, and ability to work elsewhere pushed them over the edge.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Developers in Chicago are building as fast as they can right now. It's counterintuitive to people on the outside, but from what I read, it's because labor, material, and capital are dirt cheap. So the developers are putting up new skyscrapers and other mega-developments so they're in a good position to take advantage of the recovery. A new 57-story office tower opened just last week: https://www.chicagoarchitecture.o…

I was under the impression that building materials are very expensive right now.

I think you will find that material prices are <20% of the capital cost.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#255
post #52

Are Progressive mayorships in places like SF and New York the right mentality at the right time when it's an economic catastrophe to be averted? The Mayor of NYC said a few days ago, 'Midtown is not the center of the universe' when asked about sudden new squalor and economic catastrophe. Unfortunately it is the center of jobs for the region. Is SF run like this as well?

> sudden new squalor and economic catastrophe Billionaires suddenly losing their tenants is now economic catastrophe? Is this another variant of ‘too big to fail’? Those buildings won’t be going anywhere regardless of anything else.

billionaires are fine and few of them rely on real estate wealth.

The real losers are the middle class whos savings are invested in securities that rely on corporate real estate. and then obviously the lower class because they get screwed no matter what and they provide services easily stopped by covid.

plenty of people are doing fine, that's why they're going out to buy million dollar covid homes.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#256
post #173

How does this compare to 2001 when the dot-com neutron bomb his SF? Lots of empty real estate and huge construction projects continuing or starting (due to low interest rates and long lead times)?

In 2003 SF office vacancy rate exceeded 20% with 17 million square feet available. This 12 million is smaller in absolute and relative terms (about 14%).

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#257

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

turn it into affordable housing :) ?

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#258
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please don't be rude in comments here, and please don't pile on. digitaltrees' reply gives vmception a nice invitation to expand, which would benefit all of us. Swipes like the one in your comment unfortunately have the opposite effect on conversation. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

My bad, I didn't realize this was one of those types of places.

If you don’t like hanging out in a cordial place, head to 4chan.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Businesses and residents are leaving both cities are a cadence unlike anything we've seen in decades. My point is singular: are mayorships concerned with progressive issues the best qualified to stem that tide? The numbers speak for themselves in terms of residents (tax revenue) and businesses (tax revenue and jobs). But there's glee in these comments. People are saying things like, who cares about billionnaires and…

> Businesses and residents are leaving both cities are a cadence unlike anything we've seen in decades There is no data underlying this statement whatsoever.

I mean... this is obviously incorrect?

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#260

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

At risk of extreme naivety, why do failed real estate investments merit Fed support and attention? I thought they were just for maintaining a sound dollar and liquidity and the financial system, not charity for real estate kings.
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