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Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

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Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And the managers, who subsist on meetings and in-person interaction, seem even more anxious to get everyone back in their desks. I recently quit my job so I could stop being a manager and return to IC, exactly because of this. In a WFH climate managers have to work twice as hard to stay competitive in the political games.

Sounds like they're half as useful to the business rather than their jobs are twice as hard

I used to think that before I became a manager.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#182
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty easy solution on November 3rd. Vote Democrat down ticket.

Democrats are part of the problem. The solution isn't to vote democrat or republican, it is to vote for people that care. Term limits would go a long way to solving that problem.

At worst, the Democratic party will make all the right speeches but ultimately do nothing.

In contrast, the Republican party stole medical supplies from blue states[0] during the acute phase of the pandemic and chose to minimize the federal response to SARS-CoV-2 because the pandemic was only killing Democrats[1]. Depriving your political opponents of medical supplies during a pandemic is arguably a crime against humanity.

Neither of these choices are particularly good, but one choice is far worse than the other.

[0] https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-admin-seizing-ppe/

[1] https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/07/how-jared-kushners-s...

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#183
>And while landlords held firm through the second quarter of the year, asking rents for office space in the city dropped nearly 6 percent in the third quarter alone to $78.45 per square foot (per year)

as expected, rents are still on the NY retail space level

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#184

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

The other week I was on real estate sites and I saw a bunch of "apartments" in SOMA that just looked like offices with some hastily slapped on anemities, as if there was some "wink wink nudge nudge" going on and they had to call the place an "apartment" for some city ordinance but everyone knew it was an office. However, I realized it was exactly the opposite. These people were taking their office spaces and desperat…

Looking at an office tower and a residential tower being built side by side by my window. I would never live in a converted office building.

The resi tower has concrete separations between floors and if you are lucky, between flats on the same floor. Office buildings don’t have any real separation between floors as you are supposed to walk on accessible fake floors and have fake ceilings too.

The sound insulation between flats on a converted office building must be nil.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is more or less what I said in my comment...

“in a lot of cases this is virtually impossible” is not more or less the same as “we’ve done it before...we’ll do it again”

> [...] due to cost and structural constraints of office

You forgot to read the rest of the sentence including the very important “due to cost”.

No shit we can technically do it and have done it.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seriously think that everywhere in America with reasonable tax rates is just getting fiscal transfers from SF?

Personally I don’t think “low taxes” are “reasonable”. We live in a complicated society and we all benefit when we collectively pay people to do a huge variety of important jobs which are hard to fit into a pure-profit system. Cutting funding for those exposes us to a wide variety of risks and eliminates many future opportunities, in the long term harming us all. The Covid pandemic is a perfect case study in the way…

[dead]

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#187
post #143

For those that think this is the end of San Francisco, take a deep breath. The empty office space and worries about expiring leases only applies to companies that can't work remote. SF has a huge service industry, swaths of culture, and some pretty nice weather. A bunch of chair warmers and button pushers moved to Tahoe or Mazzula, so what? It is nice to have a huge house and some land, but city living is are a trade…

Eras like this are about survivors. Anyone who was here in 2009 would prefer that era to dot-com 1999 or FAANG 2019. So as far as they’re concerned - faster, please.

Consider this a test whether you are a Californian or San Franciscan or someone from somewhere else here to rake in the google dollars. If the latter, I’m sorry your demands were not accomodated. Enjoy the farm in upstate NY or the frowns you get in Tahoe or Austin.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they signed a 12 month lease in Q2, then yes.

A 12 month lease for commercial real estate in SF?

That's not uncommon. Our office in North Beach was a 12-month deal. In fact, contracts tend to be longer (24 months or so).

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#189

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

In terms of suffering, I'm more worried about the loss of support workers and supporting businesses over the long-term. Especially in a place like Chicago where the installed base of offices is much much larger than SF, and where portions of the future sales tax revenue has already been securitized and sold to investors.

[deleted]

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#190
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a mass exodus of people from HCOL cities as jobs go virtual as well as a massive amount of office downsizing. Residential real estate may be okay in the cities receiving this exodus in the South, Midwest, Texas, Idaho, etc. but as for HCOL cities I’m just not sure. There may be enough demand to at least cushion it. Commercial will definitely be a bloodbath of epic proportions, especially in formerly hot mark…

Housing prices are actually already trending back upward in the bay area. I don't think there will really be that much of an exodus. Your company might let you retain most of your salary post-relocation but once you change jobs you'll have far fewer prospects. Also the internet doesn't help with timezone differences.

Might be offset by money printing
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