Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F • Hacker News Board

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#81

Post by jacobolus » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:25 PM UTC

InTheArena wrote: post #57

I live in a state where we are suddenly inundated with California’s refugees, fleeing the state now that they don’t have to physically live there. Reasonable taxes, a much less stressful work-life balance, bigger homes all make it very appealing to ditch the once0golden state. Our company has decided not to reopen a majority of it’s office space. Ironically, the Bay Area office is remaining open while other offices a…

The “reasonable taxes” in many places depend on large-scale transfers at the state/federal level from places like SF.

But this pandemic is going to be crushing state and municipal budgets across the country, and many of the worst-hit places will be rural and exurban.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#82

Post by Aeolun » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:26 PM UTC

mancerayder wrote: post #61

Aeolun wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> sudden new squalor and economic catastrophe Billionaires suddenly losing their tenants is now economic catastrophe? Is this another variant of ‘too big to fail’? Those buildings won’t be going anywhere regardless of anything else.

What do you mean, billionaires? What about all the small businesses who used to get daily business from those office workers who bought coffee, lunch, drinks, and so forth? The hubris and myopia of the 'eat the rich' mentality is galling and a little depressing.

> What about all the small businesses who used to get daily business from those office workers who bought coffee, lunch, drinks, and so forth

My expectation is that they’re pretty much dead already (after 6 months of this).

Even if not, while it sucks for them, I don’t think it will necessarily kill them, more vacancy may mean less customers, but it also means lower prices.

Presumably there were shops before SF became juppy heaven, so it will have them after.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#83

Post by umvi » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:26 PM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #26

sebmellen wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lack of continued large-scale stimulus is tragic. We need a strong stimulus package with direct monetary relief (one $1200 check is not enough), and a program of structured financial relief / rent forgiveness. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening.

Yes, we need at least another 6 trillion. Maybe 20 trillion. Why stop there? We should quadruple the money supply maybe, we need to protect commercial real estate investors, after all. ... and then in 2021 we can all scratch our heads and wonder why income inequality is worse than ever, and despite all this spending, we didn't even make an appreciable dent in the impact of Covid-19 on public health.

Why not just print 1 million dollars per person and end poverty in one fell swoop? If there are no consequences for printing 3 trillion, why not print 300 trillion?

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#84

Post by altdatathrow » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:26 PM UTC

xienze wrote: post #63

pessimizer wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We should have explicitly been paying people to stay home, but somehow the $1200 + the $600 unemployment bump became welfare payments, and morons were giving speeches about how they were incentivizing people to stay home. No shit. Once we had things under control, we could loosen up quarantine, then when it got shitty again, tighten it up again and pay people to stay home. It would have goddamn paid for itself. If pe…

The problem is that one stimulus check cost $2 trillion dollars. Doing that every single month for an indefinite period of time is, quite expensive to put it mildly. And that’s not even taking into consideration that there’s a lot of people with monthly expenses in excess of $1200 per month.

I know these are large numbers, but the 159 million economic impact payments cost $267 billion [1]. This article [2] gives a pretty good overview of the $4T spent in total so far

[1] https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/159-million-economic-impact-pay...

[2] https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/business/corona...

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#85

Post by anonAndOn » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:27 PM UTC

I really hope the creatives and studio types are taking advantage of this once-in-a-generation type opportunity to film in deserted SF neighborhoods. Post-apocalyptic, zombie or killer-virus* films could all be shot on location instead of some studio lot.

*that may be a little too close to the truth

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#86

Post by sjg007 » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:27 PM UTC

OpticalWindows wrote: post #5

We haven't even seen the extent of the depression yet. Combined with congressional inaction on social spending a lot of people are going to be in very deep finanical issues. This is a systemic problem that we needed fixed 3 months ago.

Pretty easy solution on November 3rd. Vote Democrat down ticket.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#87

Post by flurben » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:27 PM UTC

digitaltrees wrote: post #77

vmception wrote: post #24

Still not moving back. Seeing those empty Walgreens shelves was it for me. Even the social programs and tolerance of the squalor is not that real, it is simply that the transient population is not affected: students and programmers. The same population that just left. I appreciate all the optimism for San Francisco but it just seems to lack context from the mid-atlantic cities that are carcasses of an industrial era…

You seem to be hinting at interesting things here but its hard to follow, the writing feels like a disjointed short hand with unstated context that requires experience to unpack. What are "those empty Walgreens shelves", not having been there I don't know what you mean. Further, SF was not unique in experiencing that. I experienced it in North Carolina and Utah. What do you mean "squalor that is not that real?", what…

I agree, linguistically that comment borders on gibberish.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#88

Post by quickthrower2 » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:27 PM UTC

stellar678 wrote: post #6

In other news, water is wet. Is it surprising to people who are working from home, that the office they used to work in and cannot yet return to is now vacant? People have been calling the collapse of San Francisco since the gold rush. It's clearly had its ups and downs, but the overall trend is clear too.

Well this isn't the collapse of San Fransisco - but rather the office rental market. Also interesting that people let go of the office space. Companies making a lot of money wouldn't do that they'd keep it for a year or so simply to have the continuity. They are too busy making money to worry about their rent.

But if they are looking to cut back on rent costs it makes me think times are tough. That paying attention to cutting this cost (and the hassle it will cause now and when things return to normal), and taking that attention away from growth means that there is an issue.

Obviously this isn't the permanent collapse of SF but it might be a nail in it's long term coffin. I can't imagine in 50 years time, with globalisation, with global currencies, remote working, VR etc. that you'd need to be tied to a physical location to innovate or get investment.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#89

Post by erosenbe0 » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:27 PM UTC

quickthrower2 wrote: post #58

sebmellen wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lack of continued large-scale stimulus is tragic. We need a strong stimulus package with direct monetary relief (one $1200 check is not enough), and a program of structured financial relief / rent forgiveness. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening.

Where does that money come from? QE & more government debt?

Mostly deficit spending. QE and the like is for increasing the money supply, not really spending. Though it can have a knock on effect in terms of the rate the govt borrows at.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#90

Post by sjg007 » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:27 PM UTC

quickthrower2 wrote: post #58

sebmellen wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lack of continued large-scale stimulus is tragic. We need a strong stimulus package with direct monetary relief (one $1200 check is not enough), and a program of structured financial relief / rent forgiveness. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening.

Where does that money come from? QE & more government debt?

Yep and it doesn’t matter.