Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F • Hacker News Board

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#91

Post by albacur » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:27 PM UTC

I'm excited by the idea of permanent remote work and moving somewhere more affordable. I moved to SF relatively late in my career, and only realized afterwards that I have nowhere near enough savings to own a nice home here.

But most of my coworkers seem eager to return to the office. They miss the office environment, the perks and catered meals, and the socialization. And the managers, who subsist on meetings and in-person interaction, seem even more anxious to get everyone back to their desks. The powers-that-be probably have personal motivations for keeping everyone here as well (e.g., many millions of dollars tied up in their homes, which could lose significant value if the housing market deflates).

All this is to say, I'm skeptical that workers won't be called back into the office as soon as leadership gets the chance.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#92

Post by nimish » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:28 PM UTC

jacobolus wrote: post #81

InTheArena wrote: post #57

I live in a state where we are suddenly inundated with California’s refugees, fleeing the state now that they don’t have to physically live there. Reasonable taxes, a much less stressful work-life balance, bigger homes all make it very appealing to ditch the once0golden state. Our company has decided not to reopen a majority of it’s office space. Ironically, the Bay Area office is remaining open while other offices a…

The “reasonable taxes” in many places depend on large-scale transfers at the state/federal level from places like SF. But this pandemic is going to be crushing state and municipal budgets across the country, and many of the worst-hit places will be rural and exurban.

Nah, the spending power of the federal government, and the tax collection of the federal government are not linked.

So long as the fed can print money the federal government can spend. It cares not about the states or how much income tax flows in. Hence, it can run up structural deficits until faith is lost in the $ (inflation).

State governments, on the other hand, cannot print money. They must operate in a zero-sum mode.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#93

Post by digitaltrees » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:28 PM UTC

InTheArena wrote: post #57

I live in a state where we are suddenly inundated with California’s refugees, fleeing the state now that they don’t have to physically live there. Reasonable taxes, a much less stressful work-life balance, bigger homes all make it very appealing to ditch the once0golden state. Our company has decided not to reopen a majority of it’s office space. Ironically, the Bay Area office is remaining open while other offices a…

It takes some time to get a feel of the culture of a new place, but trust me as someone that has lived in a few other states, it eventually makes a big difference. California has dramatically out performed other states, and is more expensive because it was working, in part because of the culture that is unique to California.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#94

Post by javajosh » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:28 PM UTC

OpticalWindows wrote: post #15

meddlepal wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ive been told in a lot if cases this is virtually impossible due to cost and structural constraints of office construction vs residential... notably ceiling heights, plumbing and floor plans are poorly designed for residential conversion.

Im suddenly having a vision of a corporate housing commune. Starting a hydroponics lab in the middle of office space /s

So, I know you were joking but this idea has more than a little validity. In my vision, it would be a small group of families that would meditate daily together, and collaborate on chores and child-raising, and (this part I haven't figured out yet) work on the same project, or perhaps WFH on software-like things. Ideally there would be daycare, gardening, and some sort of exercise (yoga) involved. I mean, yeah its easy to imagine how such a thing could go horribly wrong - bad actors taking advantage, cult-like groupthink, etc - but its also easy to imagine what it would be like with the right mix of people being good to each other. Maybe call it a "Sci Fi Kibbutz" or something.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#95

Post by Spooky23 » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:29 PM UTC

sebmellen wrote: post #2

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

I wouldn’t.

Better to run it into the ground — this stuff will get bailed out to protect the banks.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#96

Post by softwaredoug » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:29 PM UTC

On the flipside, I wonder how much of a market there will be to rent individual offices?

Many like working at home, but a lot of us have rather ad-hoc situations. Even with a perfect home office, kids etc at home can make concentration tough. And the space separation and seeing other adults is very valuable.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#97

Post by chrismcb » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:30 PM UTC

sjg007 wrote: post #86

OpticalWindows wrote: post #5

We haven't even seen the extent of the depression yet. Combined with congressional inaction on social spending a lot of people are going to be in very deep finanical issues. This is a systemic problem that we needed fixed 3 months ago.

Pretty easy solution on November 3rd. Vote Democrat down ticket.

Democrats are part of the problem. The solution isn't to vote democrat or republican, it is to vote for people that care. Term limits would go a long way to solving that problem.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#98

Post by tlear » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:30 PM UTC

idoh wrote: post #21

Redsquare wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where would be the demand for thousands of extra apartments if folk are mostly remote?

Before covid rents in SF were among the highest in the world, which implies very high demand. I’m confident that many people still want to live in SF, e.g. single people like to cluster next to other single people. In other words working in tech is a draw but not the only draw for living in SF or any other urban area.

Money a lot of money,networking opportunities etc was THE draw.

There are dozens of cities that have everything else that SF has. If $$ goes away it will crash so hard it will make Detroit look like a model city.

My hope that after election hysteria is over and Vaccines get approved we will be back to something resembling normal by next summer. SF has a huge value as a place for tech with all its other faults it would suck to loose it

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#99

Post by sjg007 » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:31 PM UTC

perardi wrote: post #43

sebmellen wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really, it's an infrastructure problem. We don't have direct payment rails set up for something like UBI, and the political will to build this infrastructure is next to zero. Most of the companies receiving relief were badly managed before the pandemic, and they should be allowed to fail. But it's very hard to structure relief in a fair and effective way.

An excellent point. How many people are/were barely attached to the banking system? Especially if you’re working, well, a bit under the table, in day labor situations like construction or office cleaning. I got my stimulus check. Basically immediately. Because I have a standard 9–5 salaried job with direct deposit, so the government knew exactly where to send the money. But that seems to obviously not have the force…

It’s based on IRS direct deposit.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#100

Post by nicoburns » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:31 PM UTC

quickthrower2 wrote: post #58

sebmellen wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lack of continued large-scale stimulus is tragic. We need a strong stimulus package with direct monetary relief (one $1200 check is not enough), and a program of structured financial relief / rent forgiveness. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening.

Where does that money come from? QE & more government debt?

I think it's instructive to set aside money for a minute and think about things in real terms: if we shut things down, then which parts of the economy won't be functioning and what is the cost of that.

For example: suppose hospitality workers are paid to stay at home. How is that paid for? Well actually it's entiely paid for by people having fewer of the hospitality experiences that they are used to. It is obvious when you take money out of the equation that hospitality workers staying at home will not cause there to be any less of essentials such as food and shelter to go around.

There are other sectors like manufacturing where there is a real cost to be paid. But that could be as small as delaying the purchase of the manufactured goods by period of lockdown. No so bad.

Whem you look at it like this way, QE seems entirely justified. All it really does is spread the effects accross the economy to people who can bear them, and avoids financially ruining people which will be a primaey cause of long term economic damage once things reopen.