Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping • Hacker News Board

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#181

Post by whimsicalism » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 8:15 PM UTC

yorwba wrote: post #177

whimsicalism wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The World Bank's data is a bit spotty, but it looks like China's Gini is roughly similar to the US's at around 40 whereas other economic powers like Japan, Germany, South Korea and France are bunched closer to 30. This is a common sleight-of-hand - you're giving me income Gini coefficient and describing it as if it is wealth gini coefficient. Check out the wealth gini here [0] to see that Germany and the US are muc…

> My "theory" is that the people making large capital allocation decisions in China are typically smarter. In that case the wealth Gini should be high so that the smart people get to control all the money.

In Chinese government, often the smart people get to control capital allocation without owning all of the money.

Also, that's not necessarily true - I think it is better to have investment controlled by a diversified group of smart people, which would mean not a super-duper high gini coeff.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#182

Post by ptx » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 8:17 PM UTC

puranjay wrote: post #6

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

It has been nearly impossible to find objective analysis of China. Most sources are either soft propaganda or irrational jingoism. What are some good sources for a rational discussion about China's growing dominance?

The Sinica podcast has plenty of rational discussion, usually in the form of interviews with various academics:

https://supchina.com/series/sinica/

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#183

Post by justicezyx » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 8:18 PM UTC

statquontrarian wrote: post #17

rapsey wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with the west is that it is largely leaderless. Actions happen due to some interest group getting their way. China on the other hand is very much lead. I think the west constantly bringing up Chinese demographic and other issues is just the west being lazy and ignoring reality. China is becoming unstoppable. Democratic nations banding together or building new supply chains are pipe dreams.

Clearly leadership isn't sufficient. Central planning leadership under Mao led to poor results. Deng Xiaoping's reformation was to reduce centralized leadership. Nor is central planning leadership necessary. The early United States overtook Great Britain as the largest economy with minimal central planning leadership.

> The early United States overtook Great Britain as the largest economy with minimal central planning leadership.

There is no formal central planning.

The early US presidents are very conscious of the prospect of the nation. They purposely expand the land, clear out regional security threats through wars, deliberately prioritize economical prosper over the claimed moral high grounds (slavery), foster rule by law and encourage participatory democracy.

All these polices are markedly more coherent and centralized than modern day US policies.

You should view totalitarian as a tool to achieve uniformity and consensus. But not disregard uniformity and consensus as being unnecessary foundation of strong nations.

Plus, democracy is a mechanism to reach consensus in a human way, and should always be the most effective and efficient one, if citizens are informed and capable of independent thinking. The rationale men were not only the foundation of free market, they are equally important for democracy. When US leaders purposely dumb down their citizens, they are undermining the very foundation of the strength of democracy.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#184

Post by rawgabbit » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 8:24 PM UTC

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

China is pragmatic. The CCCP portrays their leaders as competent technocrats who are building their way into a future of prosperity. The Belt and Road Initiative is a means for China to secure access to needed raw materials in Africa and other developing countries in exchange for Chinese financed and built public works projects such as ports highways and telecom. Similar to how the internet is splitting due to the Great Firewall, China is creating its alternative vision of world trade and international order.

I would argue that China is almost economically and technologically on par with the USA. It’s military is behind. It’s biggest weakness is internal politics. Xi Jinping is using the tools at his disposal to prevent China from falling apart like the USSR. What is unknown is the amount of push back he is getting for his crackdown of dissent, secret detentions, mass incarcerations and re-education. As the article mentioned both Xi and his father suffered from the Cultural Revolution which was triggered by Mao to regain power after he was temporarily sidelined by the failure of the Great Leap Forward. After Mao’s death it was Deng Xiao Peng who gave the Chinese the right to make decisions based on facts again instead of blindly following the latest central party dictates. This was the “Seek truth from facts” speech. It seems that China is reverting to its old ways with the enshrinement of Xi Jinping thought. But I think Chinese leaders are very much aware their legitimacy is based solely on providing material prosperity to their people. China is not actively seeking to antagonize the West but their relentless focus on winning the trade wars may be misinterpreted which is dangerous for everyone.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#185

Post by RestlessMind » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 8:24 PM UTC

jfengel wrote: post #176

RestlessMind wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China could just as easily form alliances. Can you please elaborate? I find this to be an Achilles heal for China. If there is a bipolar world with US on one side and China leading the other, who do you think will ally with China? I can see Russia, Iran and North Korea but not really anyone else. In the US camp, I see Western Europe + NATO countries, Australia, NZ, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, India and Israel. Do you t…

The US has been doing its best to alienate its allies, and has called NATO "obsolete". The alliance hasn't fallen apart entirely, and in the event of an actual shooting war with China would most likely be forced together. But shooting is unlikely, and the fragility of the alliance makes peacetime coordination more difficult. That's potentially to China's advantage. It's not larger than the US plus its allies, but whe…

US stance is mainly Trump's stance and neither Democrats (Obama / Clinton / Biden) nor mainstream Republicans want to alienate our allies. While Trump is indeed tapping into "America only" sentiment prevalent in some sections (make NATO allies allocate more budget towards defense, end endless wars in the Middle East etc), I don't see a broad political support to completely alienate the allies.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#186

Post by jimmyvalmer » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 8:26 PM UTC

hosh wrote: post #164

ceilingcorner wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Probably the biggest thing is that China has cultural unity China does not have more cultural unity, it simply has more of a stomach for suppressing minority or rebellious subcultures. See: Tibetans, Mongolians, Hong Kongers, Uyghurs.

In the more than 2000 years of history, the Chinese have demonstrated a willingness to assimilate, and oppress dissenting voices. Even the Mongolians (Song dynasty) and the Manchurian (Qing dynasty) rulers adopted those methods to maintain power during the consolidation phases. The Tibetans are a great example. Both the Mongolian and Manchurian descended rulers had left Tibet as an autonomous region primarily because…

> Mongolian and Manchurian descended rulers ... were Buddhist. However, the Qing dynasty...

Huh? First Manchuria equals Qing in my limited remembrance of imperial history. Second, the Manchurians were Buddhist?

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#187

Post by RestlessMind » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 8:28 PM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #125

coredog64 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless China stops antagonizing India, I think there will at least be a conditional alliance between the US and India. We may also see slight shifts as Indian-Americans become eligible for US political office.

I agree, although there are still some potential obstacles: 1. the US is becoming increasingly liberal and India is becoming increasingly jingoistic/illiberal. 2. The US views Pakistan as an important strategic ally.

> the US is becoming increasingly liberal and India is becoming increasingly jingoistic/illiberal.

False. India is becoming culturally jingoistic but far more liberal economically than what it was a few decades ago. That brings it closer to US economic model.

>The US views Pakistan as an important strategic ally.

US viewed Pakistan as a strategic ally, mainly during Cold War era when India was tilted towards USSR (friendship pact etc).

Ultimately, "antagonism towards China" can outweigh the differences if China continues on its current path.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#188

Post by jcranmer » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 8:32 PM UTC

fakedang wrote: post #160

perardi wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has a greater inclination and ability to build alliances. I really hate to bring up the T factor…but I think this is more in doubt than it used to be, given the current administration. Taiwan will be the key trigger for a possible war. I cannot imagine the horror that would ensue if China tried to assert power over Taiwan. Just the potential of losing TSMC alone…

How many TSMC foundries are in Taiwan alone? Sure, they could straight up invade Taiwan, but I'd wager that most of the affluent and the middle class (which would include a lot of TSMC engineers) will have quickly moved shop away from the island by then. So even if China took over the island, the intellect would have escaped.

I believe all of the cutting-edge process node foundries are in Taiwan. If all of those foundries were to be lost, that would be something like 50% of the entire production capacity for computers, computer peripherals, and smartphones completely axed, and it would take years for the capacity to resume.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#189

Post by RestlessMind » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 8:33 PM UTC

vlozko wrote: post #45

RestlessMind wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China could just as easily form alliances. Can you please elaborate? I find this to be an Achilles heal for China. If there is a bipolar world with US on one side and China leading the other, who do you think will ally with China? I can see Russia, Iran and North Korea but not really anyone else. In the US camp, I see Western Europe + NATO countries, Australia, NZ, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, India and Israel. Do you t…

In such a hypothetical situation, I think China is able to at a minimum neutralize nations into not being on a side at all given the economic sway that it has in the world.

That's why I picked the countries which are strongly in the US camp (UK, Canada, Australia, NZ, Japan, Taiwan, Israel...) and/or strongly antagonized by China (India, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, ...).

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#190

Post by RestlessMind » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 8:35 PM UTC

NonEUCitizen wrote: post #62

novok wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What prevents countries from saying thanks china, we aren't going to pay and then allying with the rest of the west, or playing back and forth to negotiate ever better deals? The problem with infrastructure investment is it's hard to move.

Most of those countries remember being conquered and looted by the west. They're not going to just ally with the west -- they'll play both sides (as they should) to get the best deal from China and from the West.

India was colonized by the west and Vietnam recently warred with the US. And yet, today's China is so antagonistic towards these countries that they are tilting towards West (TPP for Vietnam, growing Indo-US collaboration etc).