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Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

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Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#131

Post by ceilingcorner »

hosh wrote: post #124
simonh wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is huge and powerful and still growing rapidly. It's nominal GDP is $15tn, compared to $20tn for the USA. However it's GDP per capita is 1/6th that of the USA because it has 4x the population. Of course the west, or the developed democracies are much more than just the USA. Also while China is catching up in many areas, it is far behind in many of the ones that really count. China's military infrastructure and…

Aircraft carriers are a weapons platform that requires both tech prowess and organizational culture to wield. For this reason, America has more than a single carrier task force. Russia and the handful of others could only field a single one. (Instead, Russia had focused on building up their submarine fleet). The carrier groups have allowed the US to project both military and soft power around the world. But that is j…

> Probably the biggest thing is that China has cultural unity

China does not have more cultural unity, it simply has more of a stomach for suppressing minority or rebellious subcultures. See: Tibetans, Mongolians, Hong Kongers, Uyghurs.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#132

Post by tehjoker »

Der_Einzige wrote: post #99
lobotryas wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need a little more realpolitik in your life. Nations are absolutely competing with each other because we live in a world of limited resources. Recognizing this fact and wanting your nation to come out on top are very normal.

Realpolitik means that we acknowledge that great power wars aren't an option while MAD exists - and that MAD isn't going anywhere for 100 years or more. That means that soft/economic power is far more important than hard power. Anti-ICBM tech sucks balls and it only gets worse with new weapons like nuclear cruise missiles.

I don't understand why we are lusting for great power wars in the first place beyond the fact that they are so damaging as to be nearly (but not quite) unthinkable.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#133

Post by whimsicalism »

nilkn wrote: post #118
whimsicalism wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it'd be horsehockey if I were claiming that the Chinese or white people or Americans or whoever is intrinsically more intelligent or "culturally" hard-working or whatever. That's bullshit. I can understand the gut reaction to any mention of IQ since it is a common trope among racists on the internet. But my claim is not that: it is about the pretty clear concentration of inherited wealth in the US, compared t…

China's parliament has ~100 billionaires, and the concentration of wealth is even more extreme than that when you count those with a net worth exceeding, say, $100 million instead. The difference between those at the top in China and those at the top in the US is not one of wealth concentration or inheritance or intelligence. The difference is access to raw power, national unity, and a massive foundational population…

Of course, there is the (obvious) point that ~100 billionaires in government is not contradictory with capital allocations being made by smart people. How many of those billionaires inherited their wealth?

> China's parliament has ~100 billionaires, and the concentration of wealth is even more extreme than that when you count those with a net worth exceeding, say, $100 million instead.

I mean, just looking at the facts - independent observers put US wealth concentration at higher levels than China, look at the wealth gini coefficient.

> The difference is access to raw power, national unity, and a massive foundational population.

This combination has existed elsewhere. The intensive testing/promotion scheme used in the CCP has been a little less common. The difference between the US and China is that we put this "raw power" in the hands of private enterprise and management, whereas in China they sequester a lot of that talent into the party and sometimes loan it out to private industry.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#134

Post by the-dude »

sudosysgen wrote: post #88
simonh wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is huge and powerful and still growing rapidly. It's nominal GDP is $15tn, compared to $20tn for the USA. However it's GDP per capita is 1/6th that of the USA because it has 4x the population. Of course the west, or the developed democracies are much more than just the USA. Also while China is catching up in many areas, it is far behind in many of the ones that really count. China's military infrastructure and…

China is simply not behind in military technology. Neither are they "decades behind" in lithography, nor in launch, nor in satellites. Their first reusable rocket is due for a test launch in a few months, their second domestic carrier is in construction, and in hypersonics they are, by the DoD's own admission, well ahead. They have a fully domestic rocket online with a launch reliability over 94%, and their launch co…

140 000 ton ?

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#135

Post by whimsicalism »

zepto wrote: post #120
whimsicalism wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it can be flipped on its head to justify an aristocracy: the wealthy today are the ‘best’ and they will pass on their genes, successful values, and educational strategies to their children. I disagree, I don't think this argument can be flipped on its head: The point is that it's pretty clear that the wealthy today are not the best and that meritocratic approaches are much more effective than crossing your fingers…

Is wealth uncorrelated with intelligence though? You write as though that is obvious, but it seems like most new billionaires we hear about on HN etc, are pretty intelligent. It’s obvious that there are a lot of intelligent people who do not become wealthy, but that’s because becoming wealthy requires not just intelligence, but being in the right place at the right time at the right age. I.e. it requires the right ki…

> new billionaires we hear about on HN etc, are pretty intelligent.

New billionaires are the ones most likely to be intelligent (although again, measures of intelligence can't be detached from the opportunity you were provided), this is entirely consistent with the point I'm making.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#136

Post by nostromo »

Robotbeat wrote: post #31
echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

China’s Purchase Power Parity GDP (in other words, adjusted for exchange rate and local costs) is already higher than the US’s and is probably around 10-20 years from being equal on nominal dollars as well. There’s no doubt China’s growth will slow due to an aging population, but they’re coming already from a MASSIVE population size advantage. The West can counter by increasing immigration significantly (and probably…

It doesn't make sense to use PPP when asking questions about a country's economic strength or power. It's designed for questions of manufacturing or cost of living.

China has a high PPP GDP simply because it has hundreds of millions of people living in some form of poverty, which drives down costs locally. Clearly if the driver of your high PPP GDP is a massive underclass living in poverty, you can't turn around and use that as an argument in support of your economic might -- it's incoherent.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#137

Post by PrinceKropotkin »

ardit33 wrote: post #85
throw51319 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seriously. There are so many right wing that think they are a paper tiger, and there's so many left CCP apologists that cloud the discussion in their own way. The West needs a completely unbiased body to release a report to the world about where stuff stands. Nobody wants a conflict. We realize our systems are like two huge tectonic plates about to grind against each other... but let's fix it

China looks like Japan in the 20s and 30s. Rapidly developing country, with territorial ambitions around the seas /islands close to the coast, and a almost predatory commercial way of doing business, and a almost nazi like squashing of minorities. History doesn't exactly repeats itself, but it certainly rhythms...

This isn't comparable at all. The territorial expansion was always difficult to sustain and grew from a ravenous, irrational ethnonationalist political culture and the need for oil and other industrializing resources. China's mode of imperialism is inherently based on China's geography and centralized bureaucracy. There is no analogue of the Emperor being both absolutely powerful and removed from day to day decision making. There's not much analogue to the ethnonationalism angle either, their apparent persecution of the Uighurs stems from internal social control, not fueling a war machine, and they've adopted the soviet multinational state. The CCP is much more politically & economically competent and geographically stable than Japan was leading into WWII. The idea of japan attacking pearl harbor was arguably inevitable, but the idea of china doing that is beyond ridiculous.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#138

Post by landryraccoon »

chaostheory wrote: post #7

Under XJ, China is declining. One of the big reasons for China's meteoric rise was that stupid laws weren't being enforced properly or at all, and free speech was on the rise which in turn led to more creativity and economic freedom. Under that old reality, I was worried that China would inevitably surpass the West, but Zhou Enlai & Deng Xiaoping's golden egg laying goose is dead now in exchange for more centralized…

> China is declining.

It sounds to me like you're making a moral argument, not an empirical one. Are you saying that China deserves to decline, because they are authoritarian, or that they actually are declining, and the numbers show this?

If China's economy is really declining, I'm curious what the evidence of that is. What are the numbers? Are they experiencing a shrinking economy, declining productivity, technological stagnation? I'm not an expert, but I would be surprised if that was true.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#139

Post by nilkn »

whimsicalism wrote: post #133
nilkn wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China's parliament has ~100 billionaires, and the concentration of wealth is even more extreme than that when you count those with a net worth exceeding, say, $100 million instead. The difference between those at the top in China and those at the top in the US is not one of wealth concentration or inheritance or intelligence. The difference is access to raw power, national unity, and a massive foundational population…

Of course, there is the (obvious) point that ~100 billionaires in government is not contradictory with capital allocations being made by smart people. How many of those billionaires inherited their wealth? > China's parliament has ~100 billionaires, and the concentration of wealth is even more extreme than that when you count those with a net worth exceeding, say, $100 million instead. I mean, just looking at the fac…

It's just not clear to me what point you're trying to make. Maybe the US has more wealth concentration at the top than China, but it's clear that both countries experience this problem/symptom to an extraordinary degree. It's also clear there are tons of self-made multimillionaires and billionaires in the US, including probably a surprising number right on this very forum (well, maybe not billionaires so much). You're trying to make it seem as if the US is dramatically more unequal than China and that every wealthy or powerful person in the US inherited everything but this is far from obvious and probably false.

> The difference between the US and China is that we put this "raw power" in the hands of private enterprise and management, whereas in China they sequester a lot of that talent into the party and sometimes loan it out to private industry.

On this point I do completely agree with you.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#140

Post by systemvoltage »

jl6 wrote: post #53
Simulacra wrote: post #10

I would like to see some analysis of what a nuclearized Japan, or Australia, would do. China has emerged as the single greatest threat to democracy, human rights, prosperity, and peace around the world. They can only do this because a foreign investment. If companies like Apple etc. did not make their products in China, Then perhaps I could see a future of China rising peacefully. Otherwise they are a grave in mortal…

Democracy and human rights - sure. Prosperity and peace? I think China actually has a good track record there. Actions you might perceive as un-peaceful (building islands, modernizing military) could also be interpreted as defensive. The world could achieve great peace and prosperity under a “Pax Sinica”, at the cost of individual liberty. That IMHO is the bigger threat: that authoritarianism will sneak in under the…

How is it defensive to build island military bases in places where there were barely any islands, in the international waters, in the most lucrative trade routes in the world?

How is it defensive to encroach Kashmir and provoke a conflict with India? Dispute borders with Vietnam and Bhutan?

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