Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping • Hacker News Board

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#171

Post by fakedang » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:46 PM UTC

logicslave wrote: post #147

coliveira wrote: post #113

China had been the most advanced country for centuries, having lost this position during the capitalist advances in the West. This should be welcome as it returns China to its traditional position as an advanced civilization.

...where are all the great Chinese inventions? the great literature? philosophy? math? science? Aside from gun powder and a few others, it all came from the west in the last thousand years.

Chinese discoveries were more suited to their local needs and geographies, just as the Western ones were unique themselves. Besides, Chinese decline began way back, from the Yuan era, with a brief rise during the Ming Era, then stagnation again during the Manchurian period.

For some Chinese inventions: the meritocratic bureaucracy, which inspired the civil services in the UK, India and many other countries. Or the seismograph, block printing (which enabled a much higher literate population than the West in its time), their variant on paper, and tons of water-powered "appliances".

China might have been very different had the Ming not stagnated badly, and the Jurchens not invited to exploit the chaos.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#172

Post by onlyrealcuzzo » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:47 PM UTC

logicslave wrote: post #147

coliveira wrote: post #113

China had been the most advanced country for centuries, having lost this position during the capitalist advances in the West. This should be welcome as it returns China to its traditional position as an advanced civilization.

...where are all the great Chinese inventions? the great literature? philosophy? math? science? Aside from gun powder and a few others, it all came from the west in the last thousand years.

What are you considering the "West"?

Prior to 1600, almost nothing of importance came out of Europe. For the last 400 years, Europe and the US have dominated technologically.

Maybe you mean the last few hundred years? I think this is what the parent comment was getting at.

For most of history, what we now consider "China" had -- by far -- the largest population. To think that nothing much came from there is a bit naive.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#173

Post by DenisM » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:49 PM UTC

skrebbel wrote: post #95

simonh wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is huge and powerful and still growing rapidly. It's nominal GDP is $15tn, compared to $20tn for the USA. However it's GDP per capita is 1/6th that of the USA because it has 4x the population. Of course the west, or the developed democracies are much more than just the USA. Also while China is catching up in many areas, it is far behind in many of the ones that really count. China's military infrastructure and…

The only area I know something about in your list is silicon chip tech, and I'm convinced that China will have at least one ASML competitor and at least one ARM competitor (or comparable) in the next 20 years, likely faster. Western countries trying to their block access to that tech (eg the US govt trying to stop ASML from shipping chip machines to China), is going to speed that up, not slow it down, because it crea…

> It got run into the ground by bad management

This might be important. A free-market economy is more conductive to both creating new businesses and to killing those ran poorly, thus evolving better teams faster. OTOH a nepotic economy launches fewer companies by constricting the talent pool with nepotism and corruption, and it faces additional headwind in disbanding the failing teams. Nepotism also destroys the investor class, the one that accumulates collective knowledge about numerous failings and rare successes of new businesses.

Nepotic economies do well in copying what worked for others because the few nephews of the top party officials provide enough of a talent pool for that, but innovation by its nature requires a talent dragnet across the entire country (YC). Failing that it's back to copying the American tech, which has an advantage (and a disadvantage) of working quite well up to a point.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#174

Post by kccqzy » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:56 PM UTC

chaostheory wrote: post #7

Under XJ, China is declining. One of the big reasons for China's meteoric rise was that stupid laws weren't being enforced properly or at all, and free speech was on the rise which in turn led to more creativity and economic freedom. Under that old reality, I was worried that China would inevitably surpass the West, but Zhou Enlai & Deng Xiaoping's golden egg laying goose is dead now in exchange for more centralized…

I find this hard to agree with, even though I really want to agree because I want the Chinese people to have the freedom they deserve. But the facts aren't right. China in the 1980s enjoyed a similar period of increasing freedom of speech under the leadership of Zhao Ziyang. We all know what happened in 1989. But the economy kept chugging along just fine.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#175

Post by justicezyx » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 8:01 PM UTC

est31 wrote: post #63

novok wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What prevents countries from saying thanks china, we aren't going to pay and then allying with the rest of the west, or playing back and forth to negotiate ever better deals? The problem with infrastructure investment is it's hard to move.

1. The infrastructure is often not just built, but also operated by chinese companies. So the chinese have direct operational control through their expats. 2. If you as diplomat even think about suggesting that Taiwan is its own nation, China will give an extremely offended reply. Same will probably happen if you try to negotiate. Either their terms, or you are an enemy. No meeting of equal partners. 3. China has lar…

All your saying is true, but the reality is much less negative than western media's reporting.

One such example: African countries often have the same national control mechanisms practiced by China, for example, 51% equity on joint ventures.

[1] is a good assessment from US scholar.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMCF2eu1D0E

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#176

Post by jfengel » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 8:05 PM UTC

RestlessMind wrote: post #28

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

> China could just as easily form alliances. Can you please elaborate? I find this to be an Achilles heal for China. If there is a bipolar world with US on one side and China leading the other, who do you think will ally with China? I can see Russia, Iran and North Korea but not really anyone else. In the US camp, I see Western Europe + NATO countries, Australia, NZ, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, India and Israel. Do you t…

The US has been doing its best to alienate its allies, and has called NATO "obsolete". The alliance hasn't fallen apart entirely, and in the event of an actual shooting war with China would most likely be forced together. But shooting is unlikely, and the fragility of the alliance makes peacetime coordination more difficult.

That's potentially to China's advantage. It's not larger than the US plus its allies, but when the US goes without its allies, it's no longer the largest player. In a multiplayer world, those allies you mention could well decide that China is, if not their ally, at least somebody they can do business with.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#177

Post by yorwba » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 8:06 PM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #162

yorwba wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China's wealth Gini coefficient is smaller than ours, so the problems would be less magnified. The World Bank's data is a bit spotty, but it looks like China's Gini is roughly similar to the US's at around 40 whereas other economic powers like Japan, Germany, South Korea and France are bunched closer to 30. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=C... If your theory of is based on China having le…

> The World Bank's data is a bit spotty, but it looks like China's Gini is roughly similar to the US's at around 40 whereas other economic powers like Japan, Germany, South Korea and France are bunched closer to 30. This is a common sleight-of-hand - you're giving me income Gini coefficient and describing it as if it is wealth gini coefficient. Check out the wealth gini here [0] to see that Germany and the US are muc…

> My "theory" is that the people making large capital allocation decisions in China are typically smarter.

In that case the wealth Gini should be high so that the smart people get to control all the money.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#178

Post by justicezyx » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 8:11 PM UTC

yongjik wrote: post #57

rapsey wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with the west is that it is largely leaderless. Actions happen due to some interest group getting their way. China on the other hand is very much lead. I think the west constantly bringing up Chinese demographic and other issues is just the west being lazy and ignoring reality. China is becoming unstoppable. Democratic nations banding together or building new supply chains are pipe dreams.

I think it's the other way: the strength of the West is that it's largely leaderless, and its "regional" leaders regularly gets switched out, so even a bad leader cannot leave much long-lasting harm. China is at the mercy of bad decisions made by its single unopposed leader - in a quest to command fear, it's needlessly antagonizing pretty much all its neighbors, which seems to me like a result of flawed leadership.

> China is at the mercy of bad decisions made by its single unopposed leader

How bad a decision can Xi (just use it as an example) make?

The Chinese system is bad. But it cannot make the same mistake as what US is making right now. Even during SARS, that worse version of the Chinese system did not make things as bad as what US is currently making.

> the strength of the West is that it's largely leaderless, and its "regional" leaders regularly gets switched out, so even a bad leader cannot leave much long-lasting harm.

This is hilariously illogical thinking.

The selection of leader is through merits and competency. If the pool of candidates were bad, swapping out frequently did nothing to help the situation.

The strength of the west is that its rationale thinking and openness to debate and challenges have helped the nations to collectively think out and plot the optimal path to future.

Swapping out "bad" leaders is not even relevant in the context of open debate and collaborative thinking. In such a system, it's not possible to have "bad" leader.

Xi takes advises more openly from intellectuals than probably any world leader. Examples: Xi asked his leadership group to study Block-chain and Quantum tech [1,2]. Can you imagine Trump keep silence in such a meeting without claiming he knows the subject better than anyone else?!

[1] http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/leaders/2019-10/25/c_11251... [2] http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2020-10/17/c_1126623288.ht...

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#179

Post by tim333 » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 8:11 PM UTC

logicslave wrote: post #147

coliveira wrote: post #113

China had been the most advanced country for centuries, having lost this position during the capitalist advances in the West. This should be welcome as it returns China to its traditional position as an advanced civilization.

...where are all the great Chinese inventions? the great literature? philosophy? math? science? Aside from gun powder and a few others, it all came from the west in the last thousand years.

Inventions:

Paper, printing, banknotes, bombs, dental amalgam, rockets, drilling rigs, natural gas as fuel, oil refining, smallpox inoculations, land mines, grenades, seismometers and some other stuff. Admittedly mostly a while ago.

There's an article here that

>It is now reliably estimated that more than 60% of all the knowledge existing in the world today originated in China, a fact swept under the carpet by the West. https://www.algora.com/Algora_blog/2020/03/01/history-of-chi...

And more recently social credit systems, anti ship ballistic missiles, tik tok, maybe covid.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#180

Post by hosh » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 8:14 PM UTC

ceilingcorner wrote: post #170

hosh wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the more than 2000 years of history, the Chinese have demonstrated a willingness to assimilate, and oppress dissenting voices. Even the Mongolians (Song dynasty) and the Manchurian (Qing dynasty) rulers adopted those methods to maintain power during the consolidation phases. The Tibetans are a great example. Both the Mongolian and Manchurian descended rulers had left Tibet as an autonomous region primarily because…

I don’t disagree with you, but I would add that the historical American model has been assimilation, not multiculturalism. It’s only fairly recently that we explicitly accept new immigrants maintaining their old cultures wholesale. I wonder if we’ll see a return to an assimilation model in the future, if competition with China sparks a new Cold War.

That's a good point. I forgotten about what happened with the Natives, as well as immigrants from Europe.

However, I don't think a cohesive will in the populus will emerge anytime soon. We have at least two major factions talking past each other here in the US (along with a lot of other points of contention: https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2018/03/06/a-quick-battle-field-g...)

An interesting period to consider is that of the Ming dynasty. They were expansionist up until a point, and then they turned inwards. Recalled their expedition fleets. Expanded the Great Wall. They were shutting down steel foundaries at a time when the European colonialism was getting started. It reminds me (at least superficially) much of US today. A narrative of why the Ming turned inward has been subject to a lot of discussion, particularly since they had the economic and technological might to preempt the industrialization of Europe.

(But I think it is also histories like this gets the Chinese thinking about their perceived rightful place as the world's leading superpower).