The title is a reference to Dream of the Red Chamber, one of the greatest novels ever written. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dream_of_the_Red_Chamber
Can you recommend an English translation?
The Story of the Stone by Hawkes and Minford.
Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping
161–170 of 248 posts
Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping
#162Earlier quoted context omitted.
> we are approaching an aristocratic, low-churn society with a bunch of favored failsons at the top, then that would make more sense than trying to frame it in terms of Intrinsic intelligence. Uh, I'm not sure exactly what you're disagreeing with. I think intelligence is a thing, I think tests can probably reflect it at least a bit, and I think the fact that wealth is not really correlated with it means that there ar…
> China's wealth Gini coefficient is smaller than ours, so the problems would be less magnified. The World Bank's data is a bit spotty, but it looks like China's Gini is roughly similar to the US's at around 40 whereas other economic powers like Japan, Germany, South Korea and France are bunched closer to 30. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=C... If your theory of is based on China having le…
> The World Bank's data is a bit spotty, but it looks like China's Gini is roughly similar to the US's at around 40 whereas other economic powers like Japan, Germany, South Korea and France are bunched closer to 30.
This is a common sleight-of-hand - you're giving me income Gini coefficient and describing it as if it is wealth gini coefficient. Check out the wealth gini here [0] to see that Germany and the US are much higher and China is more comparable with France.
> If your theory of is based on China having less wealth inequality than the US, you really should also look at countries with much less wealth inequality than either.
Also to be clear, my "theory" is not based on China having less wealth inequality. My "theory" is that the people making large capital allocation decisions in China are typically smarter.
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_eq...
Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping
#163Earlier quoted context omitted.
China is not self sufficient in its food and energy needs. If China closes, there is going to be a famine and its industry will completely halt.
This just shows that China will NOT close. It is not a weakness for a country that wants to do commerce with the rest of the world.
There is a weakness.
Despite being the second largest economy of the world, only 4.3% of international trade happens in in the Yuan [1]. People do not want give their oil and wheat in exchange for Yuans! Countries do not see the Yuan as a valuable reserve currency, which reflects their trust in the Chinese system. Since the majority if international trade happens in US Dollars, China needs to trade with the US to get Dollars.
The US on the other hand produces much more food and energy it needs.
[1] https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3027506/...
Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping
#164Earlier quoted context omitted.
Aircraft carriers are a weapons platform that requires both tech prowess and organizational culture to wield. For this reason, America has more than a single carrier task force. Russia and the handful of others could only field a single one. (Instead, Russia had focused on building up their submarine fleet). The carrier groups have allowed the US to project both military and soft power around the world. But that is j…
> Probably the biggest thing is that China has cultural unity China does not have more cultural unity, it simply has more of a stomach for suppressing minority or rebellious subcultures. See: Tibetans, Mongolians, Hong Kongers, Uyghurs.
In the more than 2000 years of history, the Chinese have demonstrated a willingness to assimilate, and oppress dissenting voices. Even the Mongolians (Song dynasty) and the Manchurian (Qing dynasty) rulers adopted those methods to maintain power during the consolidation phases.
The Tibetans are a great example. Both the Mongolian and Manchurian descended rulers had left Tibet as an autonomous region primarily because the rulers themselves were Buddhist. However, the Qing dynasty had asserted state power over the theocratic rule of the Tibetan lamas, including changing how the tulkas (such as the Dalai Lama) were identified and selected. That all happened in mid-1800s.
The contemporary assimilation of Tibet comes from well-used playbook the Chinese have employed:
1. Suppression of the written language and standardizing on the same written script
2. Suppression or assimilation of cultural symbols and ideas
3. Imprisonment or subornment of cultural leaders (such as the monks and nuns, or if you read this whole drama: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dorje_Shugden_controversy ... the main protest organization got shut down when allegations of funding from the Chinese intelligence apparatus came out)
3. Colonization by assimilated groups
4. Creation of economic and trade ties (such as the railway that was built all the way to Lhasa).
You can actually see some of this going on, if less aggressively, in Africa. China, after all, have a rich history in developing and maintaining vassal states.
These are things the US is not willing to do. And I am not saying that it is ethical or moral. The result though is that China has far greater cultural unity than the US currently has.
Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping
#165So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…
1.China has 4 times the population of America, and 1/6 the per capita output. Take your pick on what you think the long term per capita output ratio will be and you'll easily reach a conclusion on the relative size of the two economies. 2. The US has a greater inclination and ability to build alliances. However, managing the divergent interests of the members in the alliances won't be easy. 3. China does not have eno…
Could the US offer statehood (or less drastic protections) to Taiwan? It would allow the US to have joint ownership claim over the South China Sea and enforce that for its allies - Japan, Korea, Vietnam, et al. It would also allow missile defense systems to be installed.
China would fiercely oppose it. But what could they realistically do other than start an invasion, which would be vehemently opposed by the world and be an end to their rise?
Offer Taiwan statehood.
Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping
#166Earlier quoted context omitted.
One major problem is that the people directing massive capital investments in the West are simply not as smart as the people directing massive capital investments in China. If your nation gets rich earlier, then hereditary passing on of wealth will mean that in a few generations the people making the decisions about capital allocation are no longer your best and brightest. All you need to do is look at the difference…
China's capital investments tend to be more successful because they copy the ones that already work. High speed rail is more likely to bring economic value than vertical landing rockets or self-driving cars. I think the problem in the US at least is that there is much much capital that all the brightest minds flock to profitable areas. In China, these opportunities are a lot rarer, so more people will pursue research…
There are huge opportunities happening in China all the time. They are doing new projects and creations that we do not have in the West, again - all the time.
Rare opportunities to be involved in something big are just not how I would characterize China if you've been there in the past 5 years.
Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping
#167Earlier quoted context omitted.
China is huge and powerful and still growing rapidly. It's nominal GDP is $15tn, compared to $20tn for the USA. However it's GDP per capita is 1/6th that of the USA because it has 4x the population. Of course the west, or the developed democracies are much more than just the USA. Also while China is catching up in many areas, it is far behind in many of the ones that really count. China's military infrastructure and…
China is simply not behind in military technology. Neither are they "decades behind" in lithography, nor in launch, nor in satellites. Their first reusable rocket is due for a test launch in a few months, their second domestic carrier is in construction, and in hypersonics they are, by the DoD's own admission, well ahead. They have a fully domestic rocket online with a launch reliability over 94%, and their launch co…
There are more dimensions to this question than "are they behind or not?".
In most areas, western technology and capability, given the will, still leads China. However, China excels at getting capabilities fielded and generally benefits strongly from a unified desire to leap ahead. They can often accomplish things that are potent, but executed in a cruder way than would the west. No matter though, if they can field the capability and it is "good enough".
At least in the U.S., profound dysfunction and misalignment of incentives exist between high-level intent at the Secretary of Defense level and fielded capability.
A historical trope was that the Chinese are not creative problem solvers or researchers, unlike the west. Anyone paying any attention to relevant technical areas should be thoroughly disabused of such thinking. There is some impressive conceptual work China contributes to the technical literature.
Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping
#168Earlier quoted context omitted.
China’s Purchase Power Parity GDP (in other words, adjusted for exchange rate and local costs) is already higher than the US’s and is probably around 10-20 years from being equal on nominal dollars as well. There’s no doubt China’s growth will slow due to an aging population, but they’re coming already from a MASSIVE population size advantage. The West can counter by increasing immigration significantly (and probably…
It doesn't make sense to use PPP when asking questions about a country's economic strength or power. It's designed for questions of manufacturing or cost of living. China has a high PPP GDP simply because it has hundreds of millions of people living in some form of poverty, which drives down costs locally. Clearly if the driver of your high PPP GDP is a massive underclass living in poverty, you can't turn around and…
In terms of geopolitical significance, such as ability to wage war (modern industrial wars being heavily dependent on manufacturing capacity) then PPP is pretty relevant. If anything, that probably under-estimates China’s industrial capacity compared to the US.
https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/20858/top-10-countries-by...
Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping
#169Earlier quoted context omitted.
Aircraft carriers are a weapons platform that requires both tech prowess and organizational culture to wield. For this reason, America has more than a single carrier task force. Russia and the handful of others could only field a single one. (Instead, Russia had focused on building up their submarine fleet). The carrier groups have allowed the US to project both military and soft power around the world. But that is j…
> Probably the biggest thing is that China has cultural unity China does not have more cultural unity, it simply has more of a stomach for suppressing minority or rebellious subcultures. See: Tibetans, Mongolians, Hong Kongers, Uyghurs.
But the Han Chinese are the overwhelming majority (92%). They pay lip service to the 56 ethnic minorities but for the most part they are expected to act Chinese or are just tourist attractions. China is not going to have or allow problems like BLM to slow itself down internally.
Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping
#170Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Probably the biggest thing is that China has cultural unity China does not have more cultural unity, it simply has more of a stomach for suppressing minority or rebellious subcultures. See: Tibetans, Mongolians, Hong Kongers, Uyghurs.
In the more than 2000 years of history, the Chinese have demonstrated a willingness to assimilate, and oppress dissenting voices. Even the Mongolians (Song dynasty) and the Manchurian (Qing dynasty) rulers adopted those methods to maintain power during the consolidation phases. The Tibetans are a great example. Both the Mongolian and Manchurian descended rulers had left Tibet as an autonomous region primarily because…
I don’t disagree with you, but I would add that the historical American model has been assimilation, not multiculturalism. It’s only fairly recently that we explicitly accept new immigrants maintaining their old cultures wholesale. I wonder if we’ll see a return to an assimilation model in the future, if competition with China sparks a new Cold War.