Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping • Hacker News Board

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#151

Post by graeme » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:21 PM UTC

perardi wrote: post #49

Simulacra wrote: post #10

I would like to see some analysis of what a nuclearized Japan, or Australia, would do. China has emerged as the single greatest threat to democracy, human rights, prosperity, and peace around the world. They can only do this because a foreign investment. If companies like Apple etc. did not make their products in China, Then perhaps I could see a future of China rising peacefully. Otherwise they are a grave in mortal…

Aren’t they, in a sense, nuclearized, as they live under our security aegis?

Yes and no. This was a big debate during the cold war. If the Russians invaded Europe, would America really nuke Russian and risk total destruction?

Many strategists considered this to be not a credible threat, on its own. This was part of the reason the US deployed so many conventional troops to Europe during the cold war. These troops couldn’t stop the russians, but their presence would force the US to act if the Russians invaded.

Hence, the US might actually irrationally nuke Russia. Hence, Russia would be deterred from invading.

This also partly explains the US presence in Japan and Korea. Apart from power projection, it is a tangible expression of US committment to potentially irrationally deploy nukes to defend those countries. However, recent US actions have greatly called into question the US’s commitment to this strategic nuclear umbrella. Hence those countries may be more interested in a deterrent they control.

Also of note: the US withdrew troops from Taiwan in 1979 when it switched diplomatic recognition to communist China. This switch was done to play China against the USSR.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tripwire_force

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#152

Post by idrios » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:22 PM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #29

bboygravity wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you or anybody elaborate on why you think the West (US) and China are that different in the big picture? The way I see it: in China politics/policy are largely steered by big money (companies) + the emperor. The only difference I see with the West is that the emperor of the West is less powerful than Xi. The "nice" thing about a totalitarian king/emperor/dictator is that improvements in prosperity come quickly.…

> Aren't the root issues as simple as that? Not at all. The '"nice" thing about a totalitarian king/emperor/dictator is that improvements in prosperity come quickly' has historically almost never been the case. It is actually quite anomalous for a non-democracy to see these sorts of quality of life improvements. > easy example: Mao Mao is not such an easy example, given that there is a continuity of government from M…

> improvements in prosperity come quickly [...] has historically almost never been the case

But I don't think the parent was far off with what they said. The advantage of the authoritarian is that there's no red tape for them, whatsoever. This power can be directed for practical reasons like building a gigantic wall around your borders, or selfish reasons like erecting gigantic pyramids to retain your wealth and status in the afterlife.

> It is actually quite anomalous for a non-democracy to see these sorts of quality of life improvements.

This seems like survivorship bias to me. It's easy to point to NK or the Soviet Union or China under Mao as failed authoritarian states. But these were also extremely experimental and it's not hard to imagine that the current incarnation of Chinese authoritarianism is one that has learned from the last one's mistakes. Most of the quality of life improvements that were seen in the west in the 20th century were thanks to technological improvements stemming from the industrial revolution. China is going through an industrial revolution of their own right now. So was it actually because of democracy that the west saw so much improvement last century?

> Honestly, your comment seems remarkably ill-reformed.

Extremely rude.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#153

Post by nilkn » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:22 PM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #144

nilkn wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's just not clear to me what point you're trying to make. Maybe the US has more wealth concentration at the top than China, but it's clear that both countries experience this problem/symptom to an extraordinary degree. It's also clear there are tons of self-made multimillionaires and billionaires in the US, including probably a surprising number right on this very forum (well, maybe not billionaires so much). You'r…

The point I'm making is pretty clear. Obviously this analysis is entirely comparative, since we're trying to diagnose why China might diverge compared to other growth models. China has comparatively less wealth concentration, and a comparatively much higher proportion of Chinese billionaires and multimillionaires are self-made compared to the US. Keep in mind, there weren't really any billionaires in China before 198…

Your point is not at all clear to me, sorry. I think the differences you're pointing out are small at best, and while they may not have had a vast aristocratic billionaire or centimillionaire class in the past, they definitely do today.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#154

Post by landryraccoon » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:23 PM UTC

zepto wrote: post #130

landryraccoon wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you look at the past century, democracies have been more successful, but if you look at the past millennium, dictatorships have done just fine. The fact that Democracy has had a really good run for the past 100 years is nowhere near a guarantee that Authoritarianism won't rise again for the next 100.

This is only true if the recent success of democracy is random, and not systematic.

I'd like to believe that Democracy has systematic benefits, but we don't have enough data points to say that for sure.

You can easily argue that the rise of Democracy in the 20th century is simply because the United States won world war 2 and the cold war, and all other countries adopted Democracy just to emulate the US.

If Germany had discovered the atomic bomb before the US (which arguably could have happened if history were just slightly, randomly different), the world could be radically different. We could all be arguing right now that Democracy is just too weak to survive.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#155

Post by coredog64 » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:23 PM UTC

sudosysgen wrote: post #77

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

About the demographic collapse from the One Child policy, I'm going to volunteer an alternative analysis, since you've asked for it, copied from another of my comments: The effects of the One Child policy has actually been pretty much as intended. There are two hidden goals of the One Child policy that aren't communicated very often in the West. The first is proletarianization. Indeed, almost 30% of Chinese people ar…

It’s not just through the lens of Western demographics that it has to be examined. There’s still a very real possibility of unrest as a result of the gender imbalance created by the One Child policy.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#156

Post by graeme » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:24 PM UTC

minerjoe wrote: post #92

naringas wrote: post #18

In my opinion how he handles his succession will be the key. if he acts like a nepot and tries to keep the power within his lineage, that's a sure sign of a classic story of decreseaingly capable rulers. I think that the capability of democractic systems to enforce a level of competence in the rulers are the real reason behind the West's success.

> enforce a level of competence Can you please elaborate? In the US, I see "lying" and "corrupt" as some of the most defining characterisics of modern US "rulers".

Lying and corruption don’t exclude competence. The parent comment meant competent in the sense of whether the state can achieve its goals.

A state may lie about its goals to its public, or enrich its elite, while also being capable of meeting state goals.

US state competence has clearly declined, but it is worth making this distinction. Strictly speaking the two factors you cite aren’t necessarily linked to competence. Every politician must lie, it’s part of the job.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#157

Post by free_rms » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:24 PM UTC

loughnane wrote: post #146

prepend wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The West has a huge military and space program. So does China I don’t think this is true. China’s military is quite weak compared to the US (dollar amount, global reach, navy, nuclear) and it’s not able to project power globally. Even as far as the Middle East would be a problem as they don’t have bases or carrier groups. This is actually kind of an advantage as they can funnel money into more productive purposes,…

By some measures China's navy is larger than the US's [0]: >In a report published this month, the Pentagon acknowledged a grim milestone: China’s navy, having churned out warships like sausages, has become the world’s largest. I'm not aware of many signs that this trend will decrease. [0] https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/09/26/china-now...

The Pentagon's incentivized to exaggerate any threat though, because it justifies more funding to themselves.

I'd say that the real threat, as far as navies go, is what if our carrier-heavy paradigm is obsolete and cheaper missile cruisers are more effective.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#158

Post by eloff » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:24 PM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #69

Robotbeat wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost any argument attempting to invoke intrinsic intelligence (as an explanation for some geopolitical phenomenon) is horsehocky. But even if you buy that, the West (particularly the Us) can game that by accepting “High skilled” immigrants from the entire world rather than just relying on just a fraction of the human population. A distillation of ambitious people from every nation on Earth. I personally doubt very…

I think it'd be horsehockey if I were claiming that the Chinese or white people or Americans or whoever is intrinsically more intelligent or "culturally" hard-working or whatever. That's bullshit. I can understand the gut reaction to any mention of IQ since it is a common trope among racists on the internet. But my claim is not that: it is about the pretty clear concentration of inherited wealth in the US, compared t…

I'll step on the landmine.

> I think it'd be horsehockey if I were claiming that the Chinese or white people or Americans or whoever is intrinsically more intelligent or "culturally" hard-working or whatever. That's bullshit.

Why would that be horsehockey? Why would you expect people in different countries and cultures to be equally intelligent or hard-working? That would be surprising! So clearly there will be difference of some kind, and it might be small on the average, or it might not be. I'll follow the data where it leads.

I don't accept that the topic is forbidden from rational investigation and discussion. Or that everyone is somehow magically equal and life is fair - that's the real bullshit.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#159

Post by threatofrain » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:25 PM UTC

ceilingcorner wrote: post #131

hosh wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aircraft carriers are a weapons platform that requires both tech prowess and organizational culture to wield. For this reason, America has more than a single carrier task force. Russia and the handful of others could only field a single one. (Instead, Russia had focused on building up their submarine fleet). The carrier groups have allowed the US to project both military and soft power around the world. But that is j…

> Probably the biggest thing is that China has cultural unity China does not have more cultural unity, it simply has more of a stomach for suppressing minority or rebellious subcultures. See: Tibetans, Mongolians, Hong Kongers, Uyghurs.

The point still goes to China in terms of whether internal dissent is likely to flare up.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#160

Post by fakedang » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 7:26 PM UTC

perardi wrote: post #52

bigpumpkin wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1.China has 4 times the population of America, and 1/6 the per capita output. Take your pick on what you think the long term per capita output ratio will be and you'll easily reach a conclusion on the relative size of the two economies. 2. The US has a greater inclination and ability to build alliances. However, managing the divergent interests of the members in the alliances won't be easy. 3. China does not have eno…

The US has a greater inclination and ability to build alliances. I really hate to bring up the T factor…but I think this is more in doubt than it used to be, given the current administration. Taiwan will be the key trigger for a possible war. I cannot imagine the horror that would ensue if China tried to assert power over Taiwan. Just the potential of losing TSMC alone…

How many TSMC foundries are in Taiwan alone? Sure, they could straight up invade Taiwan, but I'd wager that most of the affluent and the middle class (which would include a lot of TSMC engineers) will have quickly moved shop away from the island by then. So even if China took over the island, the intellect would have escaped.