San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S. • Hacker News Board

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#551

Post by MAGZine » Wed, Oct 14, 2020, 5:02 AM UTC

refurb wrote: post #516

shuckles wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NYC is mostly run by finance money, which must be at least as pernicious as tech money right?

You have a point, and there are parts of NYC that are very heavy finance workers, but I'd point out a few differences: - You'd have to include SF, San Jose and Oakland together to equal the size of NYC (and much of that SF metro area is single family home suburbs with no one on the street at night) - Tech workers concentrate in SF proper because there is not much outside of it (yes, there is, but SF is the core) Just…

So manhattan is to sf as nyc is to the bay?

you ignore a lot of other industry around the bay and around nyc. Neither Queens nor Fremont are representative of the other areas, neither is Brooklyn or Oakland. Or Berkeley. Or Bronx.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#552

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Oct 14, 2020, 5:08 AM UTC

freeone3000 wrote: post #498

howlgarnish wrote: post #454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can get top-quality Japanese food in thousands of small Japanese towns, and top-quality Thai food in thousands of small Thai towns. However, rest assured you will have a very hard time finding (say) Mexican in either. The only places in either country where you have a genuinely cosmopolitan food scene are Tokyo and Bangkok respectively.

What is top-quality American food, and where do you find it?

[deleted]

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#553

Post by kelnos » Wed, Oct 14, 2020, 5:12 AM UTC

notherthrowaway wrote: post #154

I think people are asking the wrong questions. We know that people moving back in with their parents is up about 3 million due to COVID [1]. It would follow that studio apartments are the mostly likely to be rented by those same young people, thus the demand has dried up. The question we aren't asking is, what happens when the economy recovers and these people move out of their parent's homes? Will they go back to th…

After reading a lot of replies in this thread, I think people are thinking way too small. As another commenter points out, we need to zoom out quite a bit more.

SF, for example, was a popular place to live before it was a tech hub. Even if all the companies go away (they won't), there will still be plenty of demand. Maybe it will be a healthier sort of demand that doesn't push lower-income residents out of their homes. But there will still be demand, and it will grow as COVID becomes further behind us.

For a lot of the people who moved back in with their parents, I think social circles will be an important factor. I know if I'd moved away, I'd be anxious to see my friends again, and live close to them. That doesn't mean everyone will end up back where they started, but some will. Others might band together and pick a new, smaller city or town to live in. Some social circles won't get back together, and some will split into new combinations. Some might see it as an opportunity to move to a new city where some old friends have lived for years. Still others might decide to stay with their parents, especially if they're older and may not be around much longer.

Also consider that only something like 30% or 40% of the workforce has been working from home during COVID. Everyone else works in restaurants, bars, state and local government agencies, retail and grocery stores, hospitals, universities, and a host of other things that require a physical presence everywhere. There's no "grocery hub" like there's a "tech hub" or "entertainment hub". Every city and town needs a hospital or clinic and people to staff it, telemedicine notwithstanding. Those professions will continue to grow with the US's population, which will drive more demand everywhere, including cities.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#554

Post by ryandrake » Wed, Oct 14, 2020, 5:14 AM UTC

kilbuz wrote: post #384

ryandrake wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who has worked both in the Bay Area and outside of it, I moved here because of the job market, not because of the salary. I would take a salary cut any day to move away, but I want to stay with my current company AND keep access to the SF Bay Area job market. Literally the only thing keeping me from listing my house right now and moving to a different area is that not enough Bay Area companies have committ…

Where are you thinking of moving? I live here for more than the job, so just wondering what other cities are on the radar.

Depends on the exact WFH environment. If companies go with permanent full remote option, then I'd pick an area with zero or low state income taxes, warm weather, and cheap housing. Las Vegas area, South Florida. Texas is interesting but I don't know much about the cities there, having never lived or visited.

If companies look like they're aligning on more of a hybrid model where you can WFH but they expect you to show your face in the office every so often, then I'd have to stick to $CA$ and maybe head out somewhere on US-50 between Folsom and Placerville, or maybe way up I-5 somewhere towards Shasta.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#555

Post by kelnos » Wed, Oct 14, 2020, 5:16 AM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #278

lhorie wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Salaries do get affected by WFH policies, since if you move to a cheaper state/country, a company will often do a pay adjustment. So, from a cost savings perspective, it becomes a question of how much a company thinks being in the Bay Area brings in terms of attracting talent, vs how much they can save by having their employees work from Pennsylvania or Canada or India. I know companies in Canada that are way ahead o…

I am skeptical that the labor market for high quality tech talent is as large in the rest of the country or that it is that tied to COL. The US vs not US gap seems much larger than the HCOL vs LCOL for senior IC jobs.

Maybe not 10 months ago, but a lot of people have dispersed to various places in the US, and that may continue as companies relax their in-person work requirements. Talent still has its concentration points, but its less concentrated than it was, and I expect that trend to continue.

The US vs. not-US gap is certainly larger, but I expect that US-based companies would much rather hire someone 3 timezones away than 8 or 12. Having to be on conference calls at 7am or 8pm gets old real quick.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#556

Post by onecommentman » Wed, Oct 14, 2020, 5:17 AM UTC

colinmhayes wrote: post #341

hnarn wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t mean for this to sound blunt but your perspective sounds like one that can only be held by someone who has no experience of living in these types of areas.

I've lived in the inner city my entire life so maybe your right. Truthfully i have little understanding of the appeal of non-urban areas.

(Smile) Take the opportunity to talk with folks who live there and like it. Maybe even visit. A big part of happiness in this era is finding someplace that fits you like a well-made suit. A place of the heart. Don’t miss out of that opportunity. Don’t just go with the default.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#557

Post by kelnos » Wed, Oct 14, 2020, 5:19 AM UTC

yourapostasy wrote: post #261

jojo2333 wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't buy the "cost savings" narrative. By a long shot, the largest expense for large companies in employee salaries - rent, by comparison, is a drop in the bucket. What follows is that companies should be most concerned about employee and team productivity rather then office expenses.

> companies should be most concerned about employee and team productivity rather then office expenses. Can companies measure productivity of knowledge workers to that granularity? Office expenses make a relatively small fraction of employee overall expenses. Say 10% to be extremely generous. NYC five-borough average back in 2015 was around $15K per year [1]. A fully-burdened employee expense is around 2X base salary,…

True, but if giving up that office also means you're more amenable to hiring employees in LCoL areas for 30% less, then you start to see some savings. Ditto if some of your existing employees move somewhere cheaper and you cut their pay a bit.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#558

Post by onecommentman » Wed, Oct 14, 2020, 5:22 AM UTC

colinmhayes wrote: post #475

mancerayder wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's collateral damage from the drug trade. I'm not arguing one way or another in terms of legality. All I can say is with absolute certainty is that the drug market has competition for clients and space, and if you look at shootings in NYC and Chicago, you'll find the majority of them gang-related. Gangs compete over territory and profit, just as you'd expect them to. These are not intersectionally-educated femin…

But seeing the transaction occur doesn't change gang violence. It will still happen if people deal from their homes or at night. And there will always be drug dealers unless there is legalization.

There will always be drug dealers, legalization or no. Maybe more legitimate drug dealers, but illegitimate will still be around. It isn’t the total fix, no pun intended.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#559

Post by kelnos » Wed, Oct 14, 2020, 5:23 AM UTC

astura wrote: post #290

sergefaguet wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many of my friends who own large companies are explicitly saying they will never rent offices again. As a founder/CEO this is an obvious move.

I'd imagine that a group of employees who already work well together moving to remote work would be very different than hiring/training/integrating new remote employees.

Different, yes, but nowhere near as difficult as I expected. We've continued to hire a lot over the past 7 months, and while onboarding people remotely took longer at first, I'm not really seeing meaningful productivity differences (due to the remote onboarding) after a month or two on the job.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#560

Post by cnst » Wed, Oct 14, 2020, 5:27 AM UTC

MAGZine wrote: post #545

e9 wrote: post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah it’s weird. I haven’t seen for rent signs before but now I see them on every single building but rents are same. It probably means landlords are basically charging too much and making too much money and not paying enough in taxes(1-2% tax increase per year is probably nothing compared to increases in rent prices)

if you do the math, it's expensive to let a unit sit for more than a couple months as opposed to offering a discount on the rent. This assumes your tenant will turnover in a couple years time, mind you. I did the math for SF and IIRC ~2mo was equal to a 15% discount. if it sits empty for longer than 2mo, you should have just given the 15% discount. if you let is sit for 2mo AND have to give a 15% discount, now you've…

You're ignoring the fact that SF has rent control; it resets only once a vacancy hits.

If market rate was 3k a few months back, but is only 2k now, if you take a 15-year view, it's still cheaper to let your rent-controlled unit sit unrented for 12mo than rent it at just 2k for 15 years provided the 3k/mo rates recover in two years.

Basically, that's one of the major reasons why rent-controlled units aren't going down in prices. Bundle in Prop 13, and you aren't even paying any real property taxes on those units to sting your finances.