Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries • Hacker News Board

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#21

Post by pattusk » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 8:35 AM UTC

evgen wrote: post #15

pattusk wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yes but it's not like they surveyed every country in the world though. I would expect China or India to have a higher number of deaths overall if the data were available. It just does not seem like a meaningful statistic given the sample they are studying.

> I would expect China or India to have a higher number of deaths overall if the data were available. You would be incorrect. Perhaps the reason this death rate was mentioned is because the US is an outlier in both absolute numbers as well as per capita deaths.

I'll probably get downvoted for this, but anyways:

Maybe I should have added reliable to data.

I'm highly skeptical of the ~4000 deaths figure reported as the death count for China and I have the sense that the authors of the study were too or they would have included it in their study.

As for India, when you factor in rural areas, I don't think the reporting and data would be as reliable as for the US. [1]

To go back to my original point, I'm not arguing that the US successfully handled COVID. Nor am I trying to demonize China or India. I'm just saying that the author's decision of foregrounding absolute death toll over per capita is poor and misleading given the sample they used. It could be seen as bad faith on the part of the authors when the per capita number can support their argument just as well.

[1] https://www.sbs.com.au/news/india-s-coronavirus-cases-pass-7...

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#22

Post by zdkl » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 8:36 AM UTC

luu wrote: post #16

roenxi wrote: post #4

What really interests me is that, looking at an all-cause mortality graph [0] the coronavirus is clearly detectable but ultimately the numbers are pretty much business as usual. Although there are more deaths than is routine, going purely by deaths the situation is mostly normal. It'll be fun when the dust settles to going back to look at alternative approaches to estimate how effective the lockdowns were. [0] https:…

> the numbers are pretty much business as usual . . . going purely by deaths the situation is mostly normal The article notes that, through July 25, there were 235,610 excess U.S. deaths. The link you gave shows that excess deaths started March 28th, for a period of ~119 days. Wikipedia says that the U.S. had 291,557 combat deaths during WWII, which was over a ~1366 day period of U.S. combat involvement if we count t…

Is WW2 generally perceived in america as having caused many deaths among american military aged males? I'm sure we can point to D-day and other punctual events as being outstandingly bloody but does this extend to the whole conflict?

I'd be particularily interested in comparing the above ratio for Vietnam, or to German or Russian (combat & non-) WW2 deaths.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#23

Post by wk_end » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 8:37 AM UTC

pcrh wrote: post #20

roenxi wrote: post #4

What really interests me is that, looking at an all-cause mortality graph [0] the coronavirus is clearly detectable but ultimately the numbers are pretty much business as usual. Although there are more deaths than is routine, going purely by deaths the situation is mostly normal. It'll be fun when the dust settles to going back to look at alternative approaches to estimate how effective the lockdowns were. [0] https:…

>pretty much business as usual. Not only is it not actually business as usual, as other commenters remark, but this rate of death is despite the severe measures taken. Without such measures, deaths would have been 10-20 times higher.

> Without such measures, deaths would have been 10-20 times higher.

Is that based on anything? I’m skeptical - many places that took more severe measures did worse than places that took less severe measures (both within the US and internationally), and nowhere ended up with death rates per capita an order of magnitude larger than what we’re seeing in the US.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#24

Post by Nursie » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 8:41 AM UTC

pattusk wrote: post #21

evgen wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would expect China or India to have a higher number of deaths overall if the data were available. You would be incorrect. Perhaps the reason this death rate was mentioned is because the US is an outlier in both absolute numbers as well as per capita deaths.

I'll probably get downvoted for this, but anyways: Maybe I should have added reliable to data. I'm highly skeptical of the ~4000 deaths figure reported as the death count for China and I have the sense that the authors of the study were too or they would have included it in their study. As for India, when you factor in rural areas, I don't think the reporting and data would be as reliable as for the US. [1] To go bac…

I'm not sure what you're asking here, both are mentioned in the very first sentence -

> The US has experienced more deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) than any other country and has one of the highest cumulative per capita death rates.

Why is that misleading or bad faith?

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#25

Post by rimliu » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 8:46 AM UTC

luu wrote: post #16

roenxi wrote: post #4

What really interests me is that, looking at an all-cause mortality graph [0] the coronavirus is clearly detectable but ultimately the numbers are pretty much business as usual. Although there are more deaths than is routine, going purely by deaths the situation is mostly normal. It'll be fun when the dust settles to going back to look at alternative approaches to estimate how effective the lockdowns were. [0] https:…

> the numbers are pretty much business as usual . . . going purely by deaths the situation is mostly normal The article notes that, through July 25, there were 235,610 excess U.S. deaths. The link you gave shows that excess deaths started March 28th, for a period of ~119 days. Wikipedia says that the U.S. had 291,557 combat deaths during WWII, which was over a ~1366 day period of U.S. combat involvement if we count t…

And what happens if you repeat these calculations over different period? There is a "harvesting" theory which claims that COVID causes some deaths to happen sooner. So it is a possiblity that there were many more deaths in April 2020, compared to Aprild 2019, but there will be way fewer in April 2021. Somewhat similar "dry tinder" theory is sometime applied to Sweden: they had fewer excess deaths during the flu season for a last couple of years and got hit hard by COVID claiming lives spared by the flu.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#26

Post by matsemann » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 8:47 AM UTC

Euromomo lets one easily compare the mortality for various European countries: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps . I think this is much easier to grasp than the tables in the linked paper.

The very first graph shows that it's not "just another flu". Abnormally many deaths, even with the strict measures. Mainly for those aged 45 and older (but also not just "old people" dying, lots in the group 45-64).

Further down "Z-scores by country" also shows a pretty normal curve for Norway and Denmark but many excessive deaths for Sweden, meaning the notion of "sweden just reports covid deaths differently" that was common a few months back isn't an explanation.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#27

Post by threatripper » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 8:51 AM UTC

wombatmobile wrote: post #19

darawk wrote: post #2

They mention it, but a big factor driving this is almost certainly obesity. I'd really like to see this done with proper controls for obesity, age demographics, smoking, etc. I think there'd be interesting stuff to learn from that. It's shocking how difficult it is to do these studies correctly. E.g. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3674138

Australia has similar obesity rates to USA, and dramatically lower COVID mortality.

Australia counts 0.1% of the population as infected while the US counts 2.4% of the population as infected. Where in the study did they control for that when looking at the mortality (which is counted per population and not per infected)?

EDIT: My point is that the epidemic is not over yet and countries with a low immunity could be hit harder later on. It's just too early to compare mortality numbers.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#28

Post by withinboredom » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 8:52 AM UTC

wk_end wrote: post #23

pcrh wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>pretty much business as usual. Not only is it not actually business as usual, as other commenters remark, but this rate of death is despite the severe measures taken. Without such measures, deaths would have been 10-20 times higher.

> Without such measures, deaths would have been 10-20 times higher. Is that based on anything? I’m skeptical - many places that took more severe measures did worse than places that took less severe measures (both within the US and internationally), and nowhere ended up with death rates per capita an order of magnitude larger than what we’re seeing in the US.

I have a hunch (based on family and friends in the US) that the US is the only country that the population did its best to not take the measures seriously. Here in the Netherlands masks aren’t required in stores, but people still wear them anyway. Same with Sweden and France when I visited there over the summer. (Though France does require it in stores IIRC).

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#29

Post by refurb » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 8:56 AM UTC

pcrh wrote: post #20

roenxi wrote: post #4

What really interests me is that, looking at an all-cause mortality graph [0] the coronavirus is clearly detectable but ultimately the numbers are pretty much business as usual. Although there are more deaths than is routine, going purely by deaths the situation is mostly normal. It'll be fun when the dust settles to going back to look at alternative approaches to estimate how effective the lockdowns were. [0] https:…

>pretty much business as usual. Not only is it not actually business as usual, as other commenters remark, but this rate of death is despite the severe measures taken. Without such measures, deaths would have been 10-20 times higher.

I'm not sure that's true. Mortality is very high in the elderly, so if it went tearing through the rest of the population, you'd expect more deaths, but nowhere close to what you see in the 60+ old age group.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#30

Post by evgen » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 8:57 AM UTC

pattusk wrote: post #21

evgen wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would expect China or India to have a higher number of deaths overall if the data were available. You would be incorrect. Perhaps the reason this death rate was mentioned is because the US is an outlier in both absolute numbers as well as per capita deaths.

I'll probably get downvoted for this, but anyways: Maybe I should have added reliable to data. I'm highly skeptical of the ~4000 deaths figure reported as the death count for China and I have the sense that the authors of the study were too or they would have included it in their study. As for India, when you factor in rural areas, I don't think the reporting and data would be as reliable as for the US. [1] To go bac…

While I share the skepticism in the numbers from China and India, I believe that if they were anywhere near a similar per capita rate as the US there would be visible evidence. China attacked the problem hard and by all accounts seems to have succeeded. For the most part India seems to have just gotten lucky; maybe India's numbers will be adjusted over time to reveal some rural devastation, but I will want to wait for some real evidence before I group them with the cluster of fuck-up states like the US, Brazil, and UK.