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Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

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Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#2
They mention it, but a big factor driving this is almost certainly obesity. I'd really like to see this done with proper controls for obesity, age demographics, smoking, etc. I think there'd be interesting stuff to learn from that. It's shocking how difficult it is to do these studies correctly. E.g.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3674138

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#3
> The US has experienced more deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) than any other country and has one of the highest cumulative per capita death rates.

Why would you start both the article and the abstract by saying that the US has experienced more death than any other country when the US also has (by far) the largest population of all countries surveyed?

Reporting the per capita figure would be enough to make the point that the US did not handle the pandemic well. This way it just sounds like unwarranted self-flagellation.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#4
What really interests me is that, looking at an all-cause mortality graph [0] the coronavirus is clearly detectable but ultimately the numbers are pretty much business as usual. Although there are more deaths than is routine, going purely by deaths the situation is mostly normal.

It'll be fun when the dust settles to going back to look at alternative approaches to estimate how effective the lockdowns were.

[0] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm - "Weekly number of deaths (from all causes)"

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#5
post #2

They mention it, but a big factor driving this is almost certainly obesity. I'd really like to see this done with proper controls for obesity, age demographics, smoking, etc. I think there'd be interesting stuff to learn from that. It's shocking how difficult it is to do these studies correctly. E.g. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3674138

It's a big factor in general when looking at any health outcome differences between US and other developed countries.

Though I also wonder what early pandemic policies related to nursing homes had on these excess fatalities.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#6
post #3

> The US has experienced more deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) than any other country and has one of the highest cumulative per capita death rates. Why would you start both the article and the abstract by saying that the US has experienced more death than any other country when the US also has (by far) the largest population of all countries surveyed? Reporting the per capita figure would be enough to…

It's worth mentioning both. The United States is, after all, not the most populous country in the world.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#7
post #4

What really interests me is that, looking at an all-cause mortality graph [0] the coronavirus is clearly detectable but ultimately the numbers are pretty much business as usual. Although there are more deaths than is routine, going purely by deaths the situation is mostly normal. It'll be fun when the dust settles to going back to look at alternative approaches to estimate how effective the lockdowns were. [0] https:…

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Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#8
post #4

What really interests me is that, looking at an all-cause mortality graph [0] the coronavirus is clearly detectable but ultimately the numbers are pretty much business as usual. Although there are more deaths than is routine, going purely by deaths the situation is mostly normal. It'll be fun when the dust settles to going back to look at alternative approaches to estimate how effective the lockdowns were. [0] https:…

Aren’t the numbers “business as usual” because of the actions governments took worldwide? I’m not sure about others, but Italy peaked to extreme when there were not enough beds and ventilators in some places, which is what every country is trying to avoid.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#9
post #6
post #3

> The US has experienced more deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) than any other country and has one of the highest cumulative per capita death rates. Why would you start both the article and the abstract by saying that the US has experienced more death than any other country when the US also has (by far) the largest population of all countries surveyed? Reporting the per capita figure would be enough to…

It's worth mentioning both. The United States is, after all, not the most populous country in the world.

yes but it's not like they surveyed every country in the world though. I would expect China or India to have a higher number of deaths overall if the data were available. It just does not seem like a meaningful statistic given the sample they are studying.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#10
post #3

> The US has experienced more deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) than any other country and has one of the highest cumulative per capita death rates. Why would you start both the article and the abstract by saying that the US has experienced more death than any other country when the US also has (by far) the largest population of all countries surveyed? Reporting the per capita figure would be enough to…

India and China both have fewer deaths. The US is also a large and sparsely populated country. Best to suck it up and admit that the US has failed in every aspect and measure to respond to this pandemic.
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